蘇格蘭獨立公投 開始展露陰暗面

It was scarcely an accident that Alex Salmond’s Scottish Nationalist party set the 700th anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn as the year for Scotland’s vote on independence. Commemoration of Robert the Bruce’s famous victory over the English would surely rekindle the embers of patriotism ahead of September’s vote on separation.

亞歷克斯•薩爾蒙德(Alex Salmond)領導的蘇格蘭民族黨(SNP)，選在“班諾克本之戰”(battle of Bannockburn)七百週年舉行蘇格蘭獨立公投，這不會是個巧合。在9月的獨立公投前夕紀念1314年羅伯特一世(Robert the Bruce)對英格蘭那場著名的勝利，肯定會使愛國主義的餘燼復燃。

So the first minister will have been disappointed by this week’s news from sponsors of the planned two-day celebration of the defeat of Edward II’s English army on June 24 1314. So slow has been the take-up that the organisers have had to cut ticket prices. Perhaps it is an omen. The momentum of the nationalist campaign seems to have stalled.

6月24日是蘇格蘭戰勝愛德華二世(Edward II)的英格蘭軍隊七百週年紀念日，屆時將舉行爲期兩天的紀念活動。而不久前從活動主辦者那裏傳來的消息，肯定會讓蘇格蘭首席大臣薩爾蒙德感到失望：因爲門票賣得極慢，主辦者不得不降低了門票價格。這或許是個兆頭。蘇格蘭民族主義運動似乎失去了動力。

Mr Salmond could still win on September 18, but there are signs – some of them ugly – that SNP confidence is waning.

薩爾蒙德仍有可能在9月18日的公投中取勝，但有跡象（其中一些還相當刺眼）顯示，蘇格蘭民族黨正在喪失信心。

The Better Together camp, which has sounded negative and defensive in making the case for the 307-year union at the heart of the UK, has a spring in its step. By the calculation of its leaders the balance of opinion has settled at about 60 per cent for the union versus 40 per cent or so for separation. Nationalist nerves are fraying. Edinburgh’s salons hum with gossip about a falling-out between the formidable Mr Salmond and his equally formidable deputy, Nicola Sturgeon. Voters meanwhile are catching more than a glimpse of the dark side of nationalism.

“在一起更好”陣營的聲勢則日漸壯大。該陣營反對蘇格蘭獨立，主張維護已有307年曆史的英格蘭與蘇格蘭聯盟。據該陣營的領袖估計，現在支持和反對獨立的人數已穩定爲4比6左右。民族主義者的神經在經受折磨。在愛丁堡，流言盛囂塵上，稱薩爾蒙德跟他的副手尼古拉•斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)鬧翻了。薩爾蒙德向來強勢，斯特金也同樣不好惹。與此同時，民族主義的陰暗面也越來越多地暴露在選民面前。

Mr Salmond has built his argument for independence around a cuddly, inclusive pitch that eschews the angry politics of anti-English grievance. Scotland would break free but it would remain best of friends with its southern neighbour. Separation could even draw the two nations closer together. An independent Scotland would make its own way in the world but it would surely keep the Queen as head of state and the pound as its currency.

薩爾蒙德倡導獨立的論調一直是溫情的、包容的，迴避了憤怒的反英格蘭式“悲情政治”（politics of grievance，指煽動和利用民衆的委屈感爲自己爭取票數——譯者注）。蘇格蘭會獨立，但仍將做英格蘭最好的朋友。獨立甚至會讓兩個民族更加親近。獨立的蘇格蘭將以自己的方式存在於世，但肯定仍將以英國女王爲國家元首，以英鎊爲法定貨幣。

The tensions in this we-can-have-it-all-ways approach have always been apparent. So, too, has been the absence of substantive answers to the many hard questions about the economic future of an independent Scotland. But as long as SNP support was rising, Mr Salmond’s smiling reassurance seemed enough to carry the day. Best-friends nationalism has emotional pull. The unionist concentration on the costs of separation has sounded demeaning of Scotland and patronising of its people – the more so when it comes from English Conservatives.

這種“魚和熊掌可以兼得”式論調，一直存在明顯的矛盾之處。同樣明顯的是，關於英格蘭獨立後經濟前景的許多尖銳問題還沒有真正得到解答。但只要蘇格蘭民族黨的支持率在上升，薩爾蒙德的微笑和保證似乎就足以讓他穩操勝券。“好朋友”民族主義具有情感吸引力。反對獨立者強調獨立的代價，在蘇格蘭人看來有一種輕蔑、以恩主自居的意味，從英格蘭保守黨人口中說出來時尤其如此。

The nationalist mask, though, is slipping. The Yes campaign now carries an air of menace. Mr Salmond, as Scotland’s first minister, holds the public purse strings. Potential opponents have been left in no doubt about that fact. Academics and artists who value the bonds with the rest of the UK say they worry about losing funding if they voice pro-union views. Business leaders speak of barely disguised hints about how they should best safeguard their commercial interests.

不過，民族主義的面紗正在滑落。主張獨立一派的造勢活動眼下已帶有威脅的意味。蘇格蘭首席大臣薩爾蒙德掌握着公共財政大權。在這一點上，有心反對獨立者得到了毫不含糊的提示。珍視蘇格蘭與英國其他地區紐帶的學者和藝術家說，他們擔心，如果發表反對獨立的觀點，他們會喪失財政資助。商業領袖則幾乎毫不掩飾地談論，他們怎麼做才最有利於保護他們的商業利益。

This week the celebrated author, JK Rowling, braved online vilification by the so-called “cyber nats” who inject a crudely abusive and bullying tone into the separatist campaign. Ms Rowling, a long-time resident of Edinburgh, gave £1m of her royalties to Better Together. She also wrote a sober and thoughtful open letter explaining why Scotland and the Scots prosper in a Britain that has always been much more than the sum of its parts.

著名作家J•K•羅琳(JK Rowling)不久前勇敢地反擊了“網絡民族主義者”的中傷。這些“網絡民族主義者”鼓吹獨立的方式顯得非常霸道，帶有一種粗俗的攻擊性。羅琳長期居住在愛丁堡，向“在一起更好”運動捐出了100萬英鎊版稅。她還撰寫了一封公開信，冷靜而深入地解釋了爲何蘇格蘭留在英國更好，以及英國作爲一個整體的好處、爲何始終遠大於各部分帶來的好處之和。

The Braveheart nationalists, though, claim a monopoly on patriotism: unless you are for independence you might have wielded the axe that severed the neck of William Wallace. The pivotal role of patriotic Scots in building Britain and the abiding influence of the diaspora count for nothing. Ms Rowling offered a timely rebuke to those who “demonise anyone who is not blindly and unquestionably pro-independence”. This fringe reminded her of Lord Voldemort’s Death Eaters in the Harry Potter saga. Not everyone, though, feels secure enough to speak out.

然而，《勇敢的心》(Braveheart)式民族主義者霸佔了愛國主義這個詞。除非你支持獨立，否則你就無異於當年殺死威廉•華萊士(William Wallace)的劊子手。蘇格蘭愛國主義者在英國建國過程中發揮的關鍵作用，以及旅居海外者的持久影響，在他們看來什麼都不是。對那種“只要有人不是盲目和不加質疑地支持獨立，就將其妖魔化”的做法，羅琳進行了及時的駁斥。這種淺薄的做法，讓她想到《哈利•波特》小說中伏地魔大人(Lord Voldemort)的食死徒(Death Eater)。不過，不是每個人都敢於公開反對獨立。

Mr Salmond stands aloof from personal attacks but has done little to counter them. Only the other day one of his senior advisers orchestrated an attempt to discredit the mother of a disabled child who had dared campaign against separation. Those who meet the first minister say a nod here and a raised eyebrow here perfectly convey an implicit warning.

薩爾蒙德沒有參與人身攻擊，但也沒有做什麼來阻止人身攻擊。不久前，他的一名高級顧問還試圖抹黑一位殘疾兒童的母親，就因爲這位母親居然膽敢發起反對獨立的運動。曾與薩爾蒙德會面的人說，他在不同場合的點頭和揚眉，明顯就是無聲的警告。

The referendum campaign has fewer than 100 days to run. The spectacle will not be edifying. Both sides have identified low-paid and no-pay working class voters as the important swing voters. SNP leaders talk of a nationalist drive to rouse the sans-culottes who might be persuaded that anything is better than rule by English Tories. Mr Salmond, a consummate politician, will play to the mood of anti-politics that carried the UK Independence party to victory in the European elections. Better Together will plug away at the dangers to living standards, pensions and the rest from a rupture with England.

公投距今只有不到三個月了。屆時場面不會好看。雙方都將低薪和無薪階層選民視爲重要的搖擺選民。蘇格蘭民族黨領導人談論着要用民族主義運動喚醒“長褲漢”（sans-culotte，又稱“無套褲漢”，法國大革命時期對廣大革命羣衆流行的稱呼——譯者注），他們覺得有望說服這些人相信，任何情況都不會比被英格蘭保守黨統治更糟。薩爾蒙德是個完美的政客，他會利用民衆的反政治情緒。英國獨立黨(UK Independence party)在歐洲議會選舉中取勝，靠的就是這股情緒。“在一起更好”運動則將竭力宣揚與英格蘭鬧翻可能帶來的種種風險：生活水準降低、養老金可能失去保障，等等。

Those of us who think there is a more elevated case to be made for ties of family, values, culture and mutual interest embedded in the union will probably be disappointed. That is a pity. Even with a No vote in the referendum, if the union is to endure there will be much to be done after September to reshape and revitalise the relationship between England and Scotland.

我們中有人認爲，蘇格蘭有更崇高的理由留在英國，那就是蘇格蘭與英格蘭在家庭、價值觀和文化方面的紐帶，以及聯盟帶給雙方的共同利益。可惜的是，持這種看法的人可能會失望了。即便9月公投結果是反對獨立，之後在重塑、重振英格蘭與蘇格蘭關係方面，我們也將有很多工作要做，否則聯盟將無法長久維繫。

Almost as depressing as the politics of grievance now surfacing in Scotland is the shrug of indifference the campaign has stirred in the rest of the UK. If Mr Salmond does win the day, such nonchalance will seem more than irresponsible. The sundering of the union would be a political earthquake. And England has every bit as much to lose, and more, as Scotland.

幾乎與悲情政治在蘇格蘭擡頭同樣令人沮喪的是，英國其餘地方對蘇格蘭獨立公投顯得無動於衷。如果那天薩爾蒙德真的贏了，那麼這種冷漠態度就不只是顯得不負責任了。如果蘇格蘭與英格蘭的聯盟散夥，那將是一場政治地震。而英格蘭的損失將絲毫不比蘇格蘭少，只會更多。