投資者需要調低迴報預期

Equity markets are off to a strong start, especially outside the US. This is in large part thanks to the market’s belief that bad news begets good news. Bad news is met with central bank policy easing, which keeps the asset reflation carousel going round. This is happening across Europe, Japan and China.

股票市場今年的開局很不錯，尤其是美國以外的市場。部分原因在於，市場相信壞消息會引發好消息。對於壞消息，央行用放鬆貨幣政策來應對，這讓資產再膨脹的螺旋保持着轉動。這就是歐洲、日本和中國正在上演的情形。

While the Federal Reserve is readying for the lift-off of policy rates, the amount of liquidity being provided by central banks in aggregate should keep equity markets buoyant this year. Markets outside the US are doing the heavy lifting because of that synchronous central bank policy boost. Local equity market returns in Europe, Japan and China need to be looked at through that lens for context. If there was ever a moment to showcase why it is important to be a global investor, this is the year.

儘管美聯儲(Fed)正爲上調政策利率做準備，但今年各國央行提供的流動性總量應該能使股市保持上漲態勢。由於多家央行同時實施政策刺激，美國以外的市場受到強力拉昇。要搞清歐洲、日本和中國當地股市回報的背景，必須透過這層棱鏡來看。如果說有某個時刻能突顯出作一名全球投資者的重要性，那麼非今年莫屬。

The US economy is past the recovery phase, while Europe and Japan are not. China is transforming the very structure of its domestic economy, and slowing in the process. In the US policy easing came at a point where interest rates had room to move lower and risk assets had valuations that could be considered low.

美國經濟正在經歷復甦階段，歐洲和日本則不然。中國正在經歷國內經濟結構轉型，經濟增長則在這一過程中出現放緩。美國當初開始放鬆貨幣政策時，利率仍有下調空間，風險資產的估值可被認爲處於低位。

Cheap is neither good nor bad; it simply reflects a cloudy outlook — but low valuations allow room for error. That is not the case today across global markets. Interest rates are already low and equity markets are no longer cheap.

便宜既說不上好也說不上壞；它只是反映了一種暗淡的前景——但低估值給犯錯留出了餘地。如今，全球各個市場並不是這種情況。利率已然處於低位，股票也不再便宜。

Low interest rates are one thing, but negative interest rates are something else entirely. Government bond yields are the risk-free rate that price all risk assets, and negative interest rates will continue to incite asset reflation. But how should an investor think about stock versus bond valuations or corporate credit versus government bond yields with sovereign bonds trading with negative interest rates? The answer is not that valuations don’t matter. They do.

低利率是一回事，負利率則是完全不同的另一回事。國債收益率是無風險利率，該利率確定了所有風險資產的價格，而負利率將繼續助長資產再膨脹。但在主權債券利率爲負時，投資者應如何看待股票相對債券的估值、或公司信貸相對國債的收益率呢？答案並不是估值不重要。估值很重要。

Whether we are looking at equity multiples or credit spreads, the perception of valuation is anchored on abnormally low government bond yields. Equity and credit markets are no longer cheap. Government bond markets, particularly in Europe, are extended. That is not a negative view about the outlook.

無論我們是考察股票估值倍數還是信貸息差，我們對估值的看法都是基於低得異乎尋常的國債收益率。股票和信貸市場已不再便宜。國債市場、尤其是歐洲的國債市場已成強弩之末。這並不是對前景的悲觀看法。

We are not believers in the more extreme interpretations of secular stagnation or deflation. But growth and interest rates are structurally staying lower for longer. That is an observation about return expectations as well. They need to be lowered. While the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have electrified their policy stimulus through quantitative easing, the Fed is about to do the opposite. They are reflectively trying to return to normal — which for the Fed simply means lifting policy rates off zero. We continue to believe it is not a matter of if, but when and by how much, the Fed raises rates.

我們並非長期停滯或通縮等更極端解讀的信徒。但是，經濟增長和利率將結構性地在低位停留更長時間。這一看法也適用於投資回報預期。人們需要調低迴報預期。歐洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BoJ)通過量化寬鬆大幅加大了政策刺激力度，美聯儲則即將採取相反的舉措。他們在深思熟慮後都在嘗試迴歸常態——對美聯儲而言，這就意味着將政策利率從近零水平提高。我們仍然認爲，問題不是美聯儲會不會加息，而是何時加、加多少。

There is a big difference between direction and pace. The Fed understands too-much too-fast dollar strength will weigh further on growth. Less is more, both on Fed tightening and the pace of dollar appreciation ahead.

方向和步伐之間存在巨大的差別。美聯儲明白，美元過多、過快升值將進一步拖累經濟增長。對未來美聯儲收緊政策的速度以及美元升值的速度而言，少就是多。

The wild card for the Fed is labour market recovery and wage inflation. For the moment that gives the Fed room to move gradually in raising policy rates. It is going to be difficult for 10-year US Treasury yields to get much above 2.25-2.5 per cent this year, especially with European yields so low. US government bonds look cheap versuseverything else — and they are denominated in the currency of choice, the US dollar. To be clear, that is a relative-value argument.

美聯儲面臨的不確定因素是勞動力市場復甦和工資上漲。目前而言，這一因素給了美聯儲更爲緩慢地提高政策利率的空間。今年，10年期美國國債收益率將很難顯著高於2.25%至2.5%，特別是在歐洲國債收益率如此之低的情況下。美國國債看起來比其他任何資產都便宜——而且這些債券是以目前最受追捧的貨幣美元計價的。必須明確，這一看法是基於相對價值。

It seems there will be a few months ahead where trading will be active, but broad markets can stay relatively rangebound until there is something to fasten on to for direction. Every US economic data release is going to be scrutinised by the market looking for an anchor for Fed lift-off. That means noisy headlines and feedback. Where interest rates and the dollar go from here is particularly important — which will keep all eyes and ears on the Fed.

看上去，接下來有幾個月交易似乎會活躍起來，但市場整體上可能相對來說會繼續作區間波動，直到抓住某個題材找出方向。美國發布的每項經濟數據都將受到市場的密切關注，以找出美聯儲加息的線索。這意味着會有充滿噪音的報道和反饋。利率和美元接下來的走向尤其重要——市場將密切關注美聯儲的舉動。

The US market has priced in a lot of negative news as international equity markets have continued to move higher. A little consolidation seems in order. The second quarter looks like it might offer turbulence — not because the landscape is worse than expected, but because markets are looking through a great deal of noise, about which they need clarity. For where we are in the investment cycle, return expectations need to be managed lower; especially as equity markets drive investor returns higher.

在國際股票市場繼續上漲之際，美國股市已經消化了大量負面消息。小幅調整似乎是適當的。今年第二季度，美國市場或許會發生動盪——不是因爲現實遜於預期，而是因爲市場開始透過大量的噪音看問題，它們需要去除這些噪音。就我們目前在投資週期中所處的階段而言，需要想辦法調低迴報預期，尤其是在股市把投資者的回報推高之時。