投資者需調低迴報預期 Markets in for slower and bumpier climb

Markets favour clarity and while clarity seems easy with hindsight, it’s rarely as stress-free when looking ahead.

市場喜歡清晰；雖然事後來看有些事情顯而易見，但在展望未來時卻很少會那麼毫無壓力地看得清楚。

It’s interesting how that can be forgotten — in particular at moments of transition for markets and the macro economy. We are at a transition point currently and transitions are bumpy. As an investor, it’s important to determine the implications of being right or wrong about a particular path. What should never be in doubt is the need for long-term money to stay invested.

有趣的是，人們怎麼會忘記這一點，尤其是在市場和宏觀經濟轉折之際。我們目前正在轉折期間，而轉折是顛簸的。作爲一名投資者，重要的是確定某一條路徑正確與否的潛在影響。永遠不應懷疑的是，長期資金有必要持續投資。

We have seen several strong double-digit-return years since the financial crisis. Higher than normal returns become expected and they shouldn’t be. We’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle and, in reality, it offers less clarity than investors have come to expect from an ageing bull market. The outlook is good, not great, and the risks have risen. Return expectations need to be managed lower.

自金融危機以來，我們已經看到有多年取得了兩位數的強勁回報。超過正常水平的回報率變成了人們期望的常態，這是不應該的。我們進入了這個投資週期的末期，現實地講，它提供的清晰度不如投資者對一個年邁的牛市產生的預期。前景不錯，但並非特別好，而風險已經上升。回報預期有必要被調低。

Global growth slowed last year, stalled by emerging economies. The US and China are the foundation economies for sustainable moderate global growth. We do not believe that the US or China will fall into recession in 2016. China falling into recession would, in our opinion, be more damaging to global growth than a more aggressive path of Fed tightening.

去年全球增長由於新興經濟體的拖累而放緩。美國和中國是全球可持續適度增長的基礎經濟體。我們認爲美國和中國不會在2016年陷入衰退。在我們看來，中國陷入衰退對全球增長的破壞將超過美聯儲(Fed)走上更爲激進的收緊政策之路。

The US is furthest along in expansion, with Europe and Japan in recovery but clearly disappointing in momentum. Emerging markets are recovering from a credit crunch and an overextended investment boom. We have had meaningful debate about whether emerging markets will be the tipping point that stalls the global economy in 2016. While not our base case, we remain concerned that there may be additional spillover effects from developing economies that can weigh again on global markets.

美國在經濟擴張的路上走得最遠，歐洲和日本正在復甦，但顯然在勢頭方面令人失望。新興市場正在從信貸危機和過度的投資熱潮中復甦。我們已經就新興市場會不會是2016年拖累全球經濟的引爆點進行了有意義的辯論。我們依然擔心，發展中經濟體可能產生更多的溢出效應，再度拖累全球市場，儘管這並非我們的基準預測。

Should commodity market rebalancing get worse, the non-linear effects of lower commodity prices may lead to a significant rise in financial stress, defaults and possible contagion. Latin America, the Middle East and Africa stand out as ongoing concerns. Asia continues to look better positioned to navigate the year ahead but we expect local currency markets to be a great deal more volatile and pressured. Fed tightening and China’s response via currency depreciation will be the drivers.

如果大宗商品市場的再平衡惡化，大宗商品價格下跌的非線性效應可能導致金融壓力顯著上升、違約，還有可能蔓延。拉美、中東和非洲持續令人擔憂。亞洲繼續有望在未來一年處於比較有利的地位，但我們預計當地匯市將會劇烈波動，並承受巨大壓力。推動因素將是美聯儲收緊政策以及中國通過貶值來應對。

It’s easy to point to the drumbeat for Fed tightening as the culprit behind challenging equity markets. In reality, high valuations, as well as disappointing sales and earnings, have more to do with it. While we are not overly concerned about current valuation levels, returns need to be driven by earnings growth.

人們很容易將美聯儲收緊政策的號角視爲股市低迷的罪魁禍首。實際上，高估值以及令人失望的銷售數據和利潤的因素更大一些。儘管我們沒有過度擔憂當前的估值水平，但回報率需要得到利潤增長的推動。

Earnings dispersion remains an important driver of sector returns but the year ahead is going to be more nuanced and company-specific. That should favour active managers.

盈利的離散性仍是具體行業回報的重要推動因素，但未來一年的差別將更加細膩，要具體分析特定公司的情況，這應該有利於主動型基金經理。

It is central to note that portfolio diversification becomes more important the later we get in a cycle — there is less of a value cushion to allow for being wrong. That puts greater emphasis on the need for diversification of investment risk across a portfolio. Asset allocation, at its core, is about measuring and managing investment risk. The further along in a cycle, the more important it becomes.

有必要指出的是，越處於投資週期的末期，分散投資就越重要——允許犯錯的價值緩衝減少了。這意味着在投資組合中更加註重分散投資風險。資產配置的核心內涵就是衡量和管理投資風險。一個週期越接近末期，資產配置就越重要。

Investors should expect low single-digit returns from fixed income and, hopefully, mid-to-high single-digit returns from equity markets. Equity market returns will be driven by earnings growth and dividends. If earnings disappoint, valuations will be under pressure as investors demand a higher risk premium for a less certain earnings stream. That will lower returns. A lack of clarity is discounted by markets in the form of higher risk premia — whether wider credit spreads or lower equity multiples.

投資者的預期應該是從固定收益獲得較小的個位數回報，從股市獲得較高的個位數回報。股市回報將受到利潤增長和股息的推動。如果利潤令人失望，估值將會承壓，因爲投資者要求對不那麼確定的利潤流獲得更高的風險溢價。這將降低迴報率。缺乏清晰度被市場以風險溢價上升的形式計入——無論是信貸息差擴大還是股市市盈率降低。

Across portfolios we are overweight global equities and alternative investments versus fixed income. Coming into 2016, the size of our equity overweight versus benchmarks is lower. We are overweight developed equity markets, avoiding emerging markets for now and continue to invest in hedge funds across portfolios that can own them. We currently hold no direct investment allocations to commodities.

在整個投資組合中，我們在全球股市和另類投資上超配，固定收益上低配。進入2016年之際，我們在股市的超配程度下降。我們現在在發達國家的股市超配，暫時迴避新興市場，並繼續在可以擁有對衝基金的投資組合中投資於對衝基金。我們目前沒有直接的大宗商品投資。

Market and macro expansions tend to run longer and we believe we’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle, an important transition point. The path of least resistance for markets is to move higher — but at a slower and bumpier pace.

市場和宏觀經濟擴張的週期往往較長，我們相信現在已經進入了投資週期的末期，這是一個重要的轉折點。對市場來說，阻力最小的路徑是向上走，但步伐將更爲緩慢和坎坷。