謹慎投機 投資者套現防股市下跌

Investors are moving their money out of equities and into cash in anticipation of a Greek default and a Federal Reserve rate rise this year, with record numbers taking out protection against a fall in equity markets this summer.

投資者正將資金撤離股市，改爲持有現金，他們預計希臘將出現違約而美聯儲(Fed)將在今年加息。今年夏天採取防範股市下跌措施的投資者人數創下紀錄。

Global fund managers increased the amount of cash in their portfolios from 4.5 per cent last month to 4.9 per cent in June, the highest level since January and a six-year high for European fund managers, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)調查顯示，全球基金經理將投資組合中的現金比例由上月的4.5%提高至6月的4.9%，這是自1月以來的最高水平，就歐洲基金經理的情況而言則是6年來的最高水平。

The survey highlights fears that Greece will default on its debts, with a majority of more than 150 fund managers surveyed expecting a default and only 43 per cent expecting a positive resolution to the crisis.

該調查凸顯了人們對希臘將出現債務違約的擔憂，在接受調查的150多名基金經理中，多數人預計希臘將會違約，僅有43%的人預計此次危機會以積極的方式得到化解。

This week markets have been rattled after talks between Greece and its creditors broke down at the weekend, sending yields on periphery eurozone debt to their highest levels since last year.

上週末希臘及其債權人談判破裂後，本週市場一直緊張不安，歐元區外圍國家的國債收益率升至自去年來的最高水平。

Fund managers are increasingly expecting a Fed rate rise in the third quarter of this year, with 54 per cent now anticipating an increase in September compared with 45 per cent last month.

基金經理日益認爲美聯儲將在今年第三季度加息，如今有54%的人預計美聯儲將在9月加息，而上月僅有45%的人這樣認爲。

The prospect of a rise has raised expectations of a fall in equity markets in the next three months with corporate balance sheet leverage at its highest for five years.

加息的前景使投資者預計股市將在未來3個月下跌，原因是企業資產負債表的槓桿處於5年來最高水平。

Despite the concerns over Greece, European equities are still preferred by fund managers, who are optimistic about the macro outlook for the region, with a record net 83 per cent expecting stronger inflation.

儘管人們擔心希臘問題，歐洲股市仍然受到基金經理的青睞，他們對歐洲的宏觀經濟前景持樂觀態度，預期通脹將走高的基金經理所佔的比例，比有其他預期的基金經理所佔的比例多出83個百分點，創歷史新高。

“Investors remain bullish on European equities but are increasingly concerned about Greece and higher yields,” said James Barty, head of European equity strategy.

“投資者仍然看好歐股，但對希臘問題和收益率升高日益擔憂，”美銀美林歐洲股票策略主管詹姆斯•巴爾蒂(James Barty)稱。

Most remain sceptical about the possibility of a Greek exit, with only 15 per cent of fund managers expecting Greece to leave the eurozone.

多數人仍對希臘退出歐元區的可能性表示懷疑，僅有15%的基金經理預計希臘將退出歐元區。

“Investors do not appear positioned for Greek ‘worst case’ [ . . .] we believe a peaceful Greek outcome is a necessary condition for a rally,” said the bank.

“投資者似乎沒有準備應對希臘出現‘最糟糕的情況’……我們認爲希臘問題和平解決是股市回升的一個必要條件，“美銀美林稱。

Money continued to move out of emerging markets with fund managers deterred by weak economic growth in China, the strength of the dollar and weak earning prospects, said BofA.

該行稱，資金繼續從新興市場流出，中國疲軟的經濟增長、美元走強以及企業盈利前景欠佳令基金經理對新興市場敬而遠之。

Chinese equities, which have risen sharply recently, are in a “bubble”, according to 70 per cent of global investors surveyed. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has jumped up around 150 per cent in the past year.

接受調查的全球投資者中，70%的人認爲最近急劇上漲的中國股市存在“泡沫”。過去一年中，上海股市上漲了150%左右。