騰訊股價波動帶來投資機遇

High expectations make for volatile shares, and for opportunity. The Chinese internet group Tencent released first-quarter results on Wednesday. Sales and profits beat analysts’ targets by 5 per cent. On Thursday, the stock dropped as much as 4 per cent before cooler traders pushed it back up.

高預期導致股價波動，也帶來機會。週三，中國互聯網集團騰訊(Tencent)公佈了第一季度財報。銷售額和利潤均超出分析師預期目標5%。週四，騰訊股價一度下跌4%，隨後較冷靜的交易員把股價重新推高。

Tencent’s main businesses did well. Revenues from online games (more than half of the $5bn total) rose three-tenths year on year. More impressive: fees gathered from social networks, including China’s dominant chat app WeChat, grew nearly one half to $1.2bn — showing that the company is able to charge for add-ons and content.

騰訊主要業務進展良好。在線遊戲收入（佔其50億美元總收入的一半以上）同比增長30%。更令人印象深刻的是：從社交網站，包括中國占主導地位的聊天App微信(WeChat)，收取的費用增長近50%，至12億美元，表明該公司能夠對附加服務和內容收費。

Revenue growth from advertising was disappointing. Although up 73 per cent year on year, this was a marked slowdown from a more than doubling last quarter. Seasonality was partly to blame, but Tencent also said that brands are reluctant to commit to marketing spend against China’s uncertain economic outlook.

廣告收入增長數據令人失望。儘管同比增長73%，但這與上季度同比增長一倍以上的數據相比明顯放緩。部分原因在於季節性，但是騰訊也表示，在中國經濟前景不確定的情況下，各品牌不願在市場營銷上支出。

This makes sense, but is likely to be a blip. China’s ad spending is still low: $77bn in 2015, according to GroupM, around half that of the US. With a long way to catch up, industry analysts expect China spending to grow 10 per cent this year, twice the global rate.

這說得通，但可能只是暫時的。中國廣告支出水平仍然較低：羣邑(GroupM)數據顯示，2015年中國廣告支出爲770億美元，約爲美國的一半。中國要趕上美國仍然有很長的路要走，在這種情況下，行業分析師預計中國今年廣告支出將增長10%，是全球增速的兩倍。

Tencent, with 80 per cent of its ad take from mobile devices, is in a good position. By eMarketer’s bullish estimates, digital ad spending in 2016 could account for nearly one-third of the China total, implying nearly 60 per cent growth. True, Tencent’s ad take is growing faster than that, but with 2015 revenues of only $2.7bn, there is plenty of room to gain share.

80%廣告收入來自移動設備的騰訊處於有利位置。據eMarketer的樂觀估計，2016年數字廣告方面的支出將佔到中國整體廣告支出近三分之一，這意味着近60%的增長。沒錯，騰訊的廣告收入增速更快，但是在2015年收入僅爲27億美元的情況下，騰訊仍有很大的空間獲得更大的市場份額。

Tencent’s real constraint may be its emphasis on user experience over revenues. It could be more aggressive, perhaps. But it is wise to prioritise users — some of whom are already objecting to cluttered accounts — rather than aggravate them with too many ads too soon. The company has a proven ability to grow in unexpected ways, and the shares’ volatility is likely to keep generating opportunities.

騰訊真正的制約可能在於，它對用戶體驗的注重高於收入。也許它可以多一些生意眼。但是優先考慮用戶（而不是過早插入太多廣告來激怒他們）是明智的——部分用戶已經開始反對亂七八糟的賬戶廣告。騰訊擁有已經得到檢驗的能力，能夠以令人意想不到的方式實現增長，同時其股價的波動性可能會繼續創造機會。