中國股市裏人人都在投機
There’s mania in China right now. Stock market mania. It’s a bull market—niu shi— and people are excited.
“It’s still not crazy, not crazy,” said an investment banker working in Beijing, who didn’t want his name used because his bosses don’t like him talking about the crazy stock market. “These days market rises too fast,” he reflected, “but still many of my friends think the market is undervalued in many sectors.”
在北京工作的一位投行人士說：“這還不算瘋狂。”他不希望我們在報道中提及其名字，因爲老闆不喜歡他談論瘋狂的股市。他說：“這些天市場上升的過快，但我的許多朋友仍然認爲很多板塊都被低估了。”The rally has been fast and furious. It started this summer when the state-run Xinhua news agency started trumpeting stocks, publishing eight reports over four days about low valuations. Other state media said a strong stock market should reflect a strong China. Right on cue, stocks took off in September and have never looked back. Boosted by an interest rate cut, the Shanghai market is up 25% in just the past month. It closed today at its highest level since November 2010 after gaining 50% since the summer.
中國股市上漲的又快又猛。這波行情始於今年夏天，也就是新華社開始爲股市做宣傳的時候。當時新華社在四天內發表了八篇報道，內容都和股市的低估值有關。其他官方媒體則認爲，強勁的股市可以體現出中華強盛。隨即，中國股市從9月份開始攀升，而且再也沒有回落過。受央行降息鼓舞，僅上個月滬市就上揚了25%。週三收盤時，上證指數創下2010年11月以來的新高，今夏以來的漲幅高達50%。
“I would argue everyone in China is a speculative trader,” says Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism who’s worked as a broker and trader in Asian markets for 15 years. “Fundamentals matter far less than other markets. You see this by the violence of the moves in China.” He points out that nothing drastic in the outlook for China has changed: the new administration’s reform packages are just now being implemented; GDP forecasts have barely budged; those bearish on the housing market haven’t changed their tune.
《紅色資本主義》（Red Capitalism）的作者之一弗雷澤o豪伊說：“我認爲，中國股市裏的每個人都在投機。” 豪伊在亞洲市場做了15年的經紀和交易工作。他指出：“基本面在中國的作用遠低於其他市場。從中國股市的大起大落中就能看到這一點。” 豪伊認爲，中國的前景並未出現明顯變化：新一屆領導人剛剛開始實施改革，對GDP的預測幾乎未變，那些唱衰樓市的人依然持悲觀論調。While the long-term outlook hasn’t changed, the stock market is up 25% in a month as investors get excited by gains following gains. Margin accounts using borrowed money have multiplied, as have new stock accounts.
儘管長期前景未變，但一漲再漲的行情讓投資者感到興奮，中國股市在一個月內上揚了25%。融資交易賬戶倍增，新開立的股票交易賬戶也是如此。Ge Tianyu is a graduate student who this month opened a margin account, allowing him to double his bet using the brokerage’s money. He waited a little while before opening it, he says, to make sure the bull market was in full swing. He uses technical parameters when he buys stocks, and never holds them longer than three days. By the end of last week, he says he had notched a 50% profit. “Speculative bull markets can make maximum profits,” says the 26-year-old.
26歲的葛天宇（音譯）是一名大學畢業生，這個月他開了一個融資交易賬戶，從而得以使用券商的資金，把自己的交易規模擴大一倍。葛天宇說，開這個賬戶前他花了一點時間來確認市場已經全面進入牛市。他參考技術指標來買入股票，持有時間從不超過三天。他說，截至上週末，自己已經賺了50%，“投機性牛市能帶來最高的收益。”Four decades his senior, Wang Shuying trades stocks on her Meizu phone from home in Beijing. She puts about 60% of her money in stock funds; the rest she trades herself. She doesn’t focus on the bigger economy, she says, as it has little effect on the stocks she buys. She sticks to the industry she knows best: nuclear. Retired from the China National Nuclear Corporation, she bought 6,800 shares in SUFA Technology, Shenzhen-traded company that makes valves for nuclear plants. In September she paid 16.80 RMB a share; today it trades at 31 RMB.
66歲的王淑英（音譯）用自己的魅族手機在北京的家裏炒股。她用60%的資金購買股票基金，剩餘資金自己操作。她說，自己不關注整體經濟形勢，因爲這對她買的股票沒什麼影響。從中國核工業集團退休的王淑英選擇了自己最瞭解的行業：核電。她買了6800股中核科技，這家深交所上市公司爲核電廠製造閥門。9月份王淑英買入這些股票的價格是每股16.80元，現在的股價爲31元。She doesn’t think the bull market will last, but then again, she doesn’t much care: she’ll sell some of her stock by the end of the year hoping to earn a tidy 100% profit.
王淑英認爲牛市不會持續很久，但她同樣並不在意。她打算在年底前拋掉一些股票，並且希望盈利幅度能達到100%。Wang Bin works for the state-owned energy giant China National Petroleum Corp., CNPC. He’s busy with his job, but when stocks go crazy, like they have recently, he starts tuning in. Wang, 36, pays closest attention to companies aligned with China’s industrial policies, such as nuclear power and artificial intelligence. Normally he holds stocks for half a year, but it’s not always easy. A couple months ago he bought shares of Shenzhen Aotexun, an electric power equipment firm, which have since tumbled by 10%. With the rest of the stock market rising, he’s a little miffed, but not deterred. “I think this is a field that has industrial policy support— it is no problem,” he says.
36歲的王斌（音譯）是國有能源龍頭企業中石油的員工。他工作很忙，但當股市像最近一樣瘋漲時，他就會出手。王斌最關注符合國家產業政策的個股，比如核電和人工智能。通常他會持有半年時間，但情況不總是那麼順利。幾個月前他買進了電力設備公司奧特迅，目前這隻股票下跌了10%。看着其他股票節節攀升，王斌有點兒惱火，但並不害怕。他說：“我覺得這個領域有產業政策支持，沒問題。”When Western readers hear that retail investors account for 60-80% of the trading in China, they might think of the mom and pop investors portrayed at home—the grandmas investing their pensions, the local manager investing for his kid’s college fund.
當西方讀者聽說個人投資者佔中國股市成交額的60-80%時，他們可能會想到自己的那些股民同胞——用養老金投資的老奶奶，把孩子上大學的錢投入股市的經理人。While a sliver of that exists in China, the author Howie has written repeatedly that the Chinese press omits the fact that stocks are a rich person’s game in the country.
雖然中國也有一些這樣的投資者，但豪伊反覆寫到，中國媒體忽略了這樣一個事實，那就是中國股市是富人的遊戲。Seventy five percent of the individual stock accounts in China have less than 100,000 yuan ($16,000). The accounts with upwards of $1 million or more have a far greater push on the market. “When you start looking at value of those bigger accounts, the small investors’ effect is not as impressive as first appears,” he says.
在中國，資金少於10萬元的個人股票賬戶佔75%。而規模超過600萬元，甚至更大的賬戶對市場的影響要比前者大得多。豪伊說：“看到這些大戶的資金量時，小散戶的作用就不像乍看上去那麼顯眼了。”In the last bull market of 2007, when the Chinese market more than doubled in just seven months, one of Howie’s colleagues at the brokerage CLSA spent a week asking everyone he could find how they were investing. The number of those actually trading was minimal, but everyone had a story about a friend striking it rich.
2007年的上一個牛市中，中國股市在短短七個月裏上漲了一倍多。豪伊在里昂證券（CLSA）的一位同事花了一個星期時間做調查，逢人就問對方如何進行的投資。真正進行了交易的人非常少，但每個人都說自己的朋友賺了大錢。One of the places you can find some skepticism about stocks’ recent rise, ironically enough, is the very state-run press that earlier stoked enthusiasm. Last week Xinhua cited anonymous researchers predicting a pullback. A copy editor at the English-language China Daily, Huang Xiangyang, wrote a column wondering why China’s bull markets always seem to fizzle out soon after they start. “Based on global experience, returns on stocks are still closely correlated with corporate growth and innovation,” he wrote. “That may explain why bull markets in China never last more than two years, compared with as many as 17 years on Wall Street.”
充滿諷刺意味的是，對股市近期上漲提出一些疑問的正是此前激起人們炒股熱情的官方媒體。新華社上週報道，未具名研究人士預計股市將回落。《中國日報》編輯黃向陽也發表專欄文章，對中國牛市行情似乎總是在開始不久後便草草收場提出質疑。他寫道：“全球經驗表明，股票回報率仍和企業的增長與創新緊密相關。這也許能解釋爲什麼中國的牛市延續時間從未超過兩年，而美國能出現長達17年的牛市。”Even so, he called this gold rush too good to miss. “In this market you do not have to buy and hold, as value investors are supposed to do. All you have to do is take the pulse of government policies and speculate on them.”
儘管如此，黃向陽仍認爲這波絕佳行情不容錯過：“在這個市場，大家不需要像價值投資者那樣買入並持有股票。所要做的只是把握好政府的政策脈搏，並進行投機。”Easy enough, for those able to get into the game.
對那些玩得起這場遊戲的人來說，這的確易如反掌。（財富中文網）
