H股值得擁有 Hong Kong shares smoother seas

Navigating Chinese stock markets? Pack motion-sickness pills. Intraday swings of more than 5 per cent have become common; in the past two months, mainland indices have had intraday movements of more than10 per cent three times. Chinese authorities have been stepping in to prop up shares. One can only assume this is making the turbulence worse.

涉足中國股市？最好帶上治暈藥丸。盤中振幅超過5%已成爲常態；過去兩個月裏，中國內地股指的盤中振幅已有3次高於10%。中國當局近期在出手救市。人們可以推斷，這樣只會加劇股市的動盪。

State protection, if that is the word, has not extended to the Hong Kong bourse. Shares there have trickled persistently lower, without the churning volatility. Shanghai’s composite index is still up nearly a fifth this year. Hong Kong-listed Chinese ‘H’ shares are down more than 10 per cent.

國家護盤——如果這麼表述確切的話——並未延伸到香港股市。香港的股價一點一點地持續下挫，不像內地股市波動那麼厲害。今年迄今，上證綜指(Shanghai composite index)漲幅仍接近五分之一。H股（在港上市內地企業）的價格則下降了逾10%。

For the nearly 70 companies listed in both Hong Kong and China — names such as China Construction Bank, China Railway Group and Tsingtao Brewery — the Hong Kong H line is on average 24 per cent cheaper than the same ‘A’ share bought in China. That is less than July’s one-third discount, but well above the five-year average.

對於中國建行(CCB)、中鐵股份有限公司(China Railway Group)以及青島啤酒(Tsingtao Brewery)等近70家中港兩地上市企業而言，H股價格平均比A股便宜24%。這個數字低於今年7月三分之一的折價幅度，但仍遠高於五年平均值。

Global investors access Chinese shares through Hong Kong because of restrictions on mainland investment. So H shares’ underperformance reflects how outsiders’ fears about China’s economic slowdown outweigh both the residual hopes of Chinese punters and state intervention. Yet many H shares are also cheap in absolute terms. The index trades at 8 times forward earnings, against a growth forecast at 9 per cent. With reason, perhaps, earnings forecasts have been falling. Recent policy moves, including renminbi devaluation, suggest the economy is in rough shape. Broad activity data such as electricity generation have been slowing for months.

由於中國內地對投資的限制，國際投資者借道香港買賣中國內地企業的股票。所以，H股表現欠佳表明，境外投資者對於中國經濟放緩的擔心，壓倒了中國股民殘存希望和國家干預兩方面的影響。不過，許多H股在絕對值基礎上也很便宜。恆生中國企業指數的預期市盈率爲8倍，而成分股的盈利增長預期爲9%。也許有道理的是，盈利預期在下降。包括人民幣貶值在內，近來的政策舉動顯示，目前中國經濟處境艱難。幾個月以來，發電量等宏觀活動數據一直在放緩。

At the same time, though, some first-half earnings have been unexpectedly healthy. On Wednesday, Chinese automaker Geely and property developer China Overseas Land and Investment beat estimates. If other companies follow, it may be worth dipping a toe in Hong Kong’s waters.

但另一方面，有些企業的上半年盈利強勁得出人意外。週三，中國汽車製造商吉利汽車(Geely)和房地產商中國海外發展有限公司(COLI)都公佈了勝於預期的業績。如果其它企業也能如此，那麼試水香港市場或許是值得的。