中國出口並未喪失競爭力 China's export story is stronger than headlines suggest

On the face of it, it makes no sense that the international flower industry should be headquartered in the Netherlands. The feeble sunshine and predisposition for a large number of rainy days would not make the Netherlands the first choice for anyone starting a flower-growing business today – if not for the fact that the business, and its integral supply chains, are already there. This is a huge competitive advantage for a new entrant, who can benefit from such things as the sophisticated Dutch flower auctions, the flower-growers’ associations and advanced research centres.

從表面上看，把國際鮮花行業總部設在荷蘭是沒道理的。如果不考慮荷蘭已經形成鮮花行業以及完整的供應鏈的話，鑑於那裏微弱的日照及大量陰雨天氣，如今任何人都不會把荷蘭作爲開啓鮮花種植生意的首選。荷蘭已有的鮮花產業和完整供應鏈對於新的市場進入者來說是巨大的競爭優勢，他們可以從荷蘭成熟的鮮花拍賣、鮮花種植者協會以及先進的科研中心等方面獲益匪淺。

Academic Michael Porter uses this very example to illustrate his cluster theory of trade development, whereby whole supply chains “cluster” together. Another well-known cluster is the auto manufacturing industry in Michigan in the US. Over 50 per cent of North American auto companies are based in Michigan, and 46 of the top 50 global auto suppliers have operations in the state. Further south in the US, around Dalton in Georgia, over 90 per cent of all functional carpets are produced. It is why Dalton is called the “carpet capital of the world”.

學者邁克爾波特(Michael Porter)利用這個例子來闡釋他的貿易發展集羣理論——即整個供應鏈“聚集”在一起。另一個衆所周知的集羣是位於美國密歇根州的汽車製造業。超過50%的北美汽車公司都位於密歇根，全球排名前50的汽車供應商中有46家在密歇根有業務。在美國的更南方——佐治亞州道爾頓(Dalton)附近，超過90%的功能性地毯在此生產。這也是道爾頓被稱爲“世界地毯之都”的原因。

It’s partly because of the cluster effect that we believe Chinese exports will be sufficiently competitive to ride out the economic slowdown and emerging market uncertainty. Clustering is certainly nothing new to China – regional specialisations have always existed. A few centuries ago, tailors from Cixi (in the Zhejiang sub-provincial city of Ningbo) were known for their skills in clothing manufacturing and even now the area is a major centre for textile manufacturing.

我們相信中國的出口業將以足夠的競爭力安然渡過此輪經濟放緩和新興市場動盪，部分原因正是集羣效應。集羣對於中國來說自然沒什麼新鮮的——這裏一直存在地域專業化。幾個世紀以前，慈溪（位於浙江省寧波市）的裁縫以其製衣的精湛手藝而聞名，即使現在那裏仍然是紡織製造業的主要中心。

However, advanced industrial clusters are a more recent phenomenon. Think of the city of Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta, where a large number of Taiwan technology companies cluster together. Other examples are the photovoltaic industrial cluster in Wuxi (Jiangsu province), electronics in Shenzhen, and Foshan in south China, where household appliances and ceramics clusters have evolved.

然而，先進的產業集羣則是近來纔出現的現象。想一想位於珠三角的東莞市，大批臺灣科技公司聚集在這裏。其他的例子有，江蘇無錫的光伏產業集羣、深圳的電子產業、以及佛山成熟的家用電器業和陶瓷業集羣。

The emergence of these clusters is changing Asian supply chains. Goods now make fewer stops along the way before final assembly in China. More and more production is taking place on the mainland (including Hong Kong), rather than in other parts of Asia, particularly ASEAN, the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations.

這些集羣的出現正在改變亞洲的供應鏈。如今商品在中國進入最終裝配之前停靠的站點變少了。越來越多的生產過程在中國內地（以及香港）完成，而不是在亞洲其他地區，尤其不是在10國組成的東盟(Asean)地區。

There is further evidence that corroborates this view. As the chart below illustrates, China is making more of the parts that go into its finished goods production. It shows that the share of imported components in China’s total exports has fallen from a peak of 60 per cent in the mid-1990s to around 35 per cent today. This reflects the progressive substitution of domestic inputs for foreign inputs by Chinese firms, possibly because China boasts clusters of highly efficient suppliers that other countries struggle to replicate.

還有進一步的證據來證實這一觀點。正如下圖所顯示的那樣，中國正製造越來越多的進入成品生產的零件。該圖顯示，中國出口產品中進口零件的佔比已經從1990年代中期巔峯時的60%，下滑至如今的35%左右。這反映出中國公司用國產投入品替代外國投入品的飛躍，這可能是由於中國擁有其引以爲榮的別國難以複製的高效供應商集羣。

Therefore, the common picture of China losing competitiveness and being “hollowed-out” as manufacturers move to lower labour cost geographies such as Vietnam and Bangladesh is not entirely correct. China actually still dominates large parts of the manufacturing food chain. Indeed, we find evidence that it is going upmarket to pursue higher-value-added products and that it is supported in its efforts by having a large number of industrial clusters (it should be noted, however, that even in labour intensive industries such as clothing, China’s share of global clothing exports has actually risen from 42.6 per cent in 2011 to 43.1 per cent in 2013).

因此，通常畫面中描繪的中國失去競爭力、並隨着製造商向越南、孟加拉國等勞動力成本較低的地域轉移而被“空心化”的景象，並非完全正確的。中國仍然主導着大部分的製造業食物鏈。實際上，我們發現的證據表明，中國正在進軍高端市場以追求高附加值產品，並且其擁有的大量產業集羣支撐着這一努力（然而，值得注意的是，即使是在服裝這一勞動密集型產業，中國在全球出口中的份額也已經從2011年的42.6%上升至2013年的43.1%）。

So, the fear of Chinese exports losing competitiveness is in our view misplaced. The most compelling question for China and indeed, the global economy, continues to be one of demand. Export growth cannot charge ahead when recovery in much of the world economy remains fragile. Once things get back on track, China has what it takes to continue its dynamic export story.

因此，在我們看來，對中國出口失去競爭力的擔憂放錯了地方。中國、甚至世界經濟面臨的最緊迫的問題仍然是需求問題。在世界經濟的大部分仍然復甦乏力的情況下，出口增長也無法獨善其身。一旦事情回到正軌，中國有條件繼續抒寫其充滿活力的出口傳奇。