電力短缺 印度大國崛起中的阿喀琉斯之踵
In India, a power outage is not a big deal. On my first day at the newsmagazineIndia Today, when the lights cut out and my computer zapped to black, no one seemed to skip a beat. And why would they? This happens all the time in Delhi, and -- my coworkers assured me -- everywhere else in India. Moments later, our Chai wallahs had left their post by the steaming cauldron of milky tea to start the generators, which were kept on hand because this happened all the time and was not a big deal. By the time I left the country I was similarly inured to the regular irregularities of life there.
在印度，停電不是什麼大事。筆者抵達新聞雜誌《今日印度》（India Today）的第一天就遇到了停電。突然之間，燈全滅了，電腦也黑屏了，可大家似乎都不以爲意。有什麼必要大驚小怪呢？畢竟，在德里，停電是常有的事，而且我的同事很確定地告訴我，印度每個地方都會停電。過了一會兒，報社的茶博士離開熱氣騰騰的奶茶鍋，去啓動發電機。發電機是常備物品，因爲停電經常發生，人們已經司空見慣了。我離開印度的時候，對這種“正常的”不正常生活也已經習以爲常。
So it's amazing that so much of the Indian response to the largest single power outage in world history, which left nearly a tenth of the world's population powerless, is anger, tinged with embarrassment. It's a terribly irresponsible thing to make generalizations about a democracy of 1.2 billion with 35 regional languages, but allow me one: Indians are supremely unflappable. They have to be. The power cuts out, the water does not run, and the most basic tasks can quickly turn Sisyphean in the face of a crazy-complex bureaucracy. The Times of India captured the situation perfectly in a report on power minister Veerappa Moily. Moily was just appointed on Tuesday, during the crises, and in the middle of a television appearance to restore public confidence in the government his interview was cut a blackout.
所以，當印度發生世界歷史上最大規模的一次停電時，大多數印度人的反應竟然是憤怒中帶着一絲尷尬，這讓我很是吃驚。此次停電導致世界約十分之一的人口處於斷電狀態。對一個擁有12億人口、35種方言的民主國家一概而論是種不負責的行爲，但請允許我這麼說：印度人非常鎮定。因爲，他們別無選擇。停電、停水，即便最基本的任務，在紛繁複雜的官僚主義面前，也會變成永遠無法解決的難題。《印度時報》（The Times of India ）對電力部長維拉帕•莫伊利進行的採訪報道完美地反映了這種情形。週二，莫伊利臨危受命，剛剛被任命爲電力部長。當時他正在電視上接受採訪，希望恢復公衆對政府的信心，結果採訪被迫中斷，因爲——停電了。
India's energy problems are probably only going to get worse before they get better. Though the exact cause of Monday and Tuesday's outages are unclear, the national demand has outpaced capacity, and energy is sold for less than the cost to produce it. The system is still heavily reliant on coal -- which, ironically, it cannot mine when the power goes out; miners were trapped on Tuesday -- and hydroelectric. An estimated 20% of India's grid comes from dams, which rely on the seasonal monsoon, a dicey proposition in a changing climate. The rains have not come on as strong this year, and may not again next year. India's constant outages caused a loss in sales of at least 6.6% in 2006, the most recent year statistics are available, the World Bank reported. It is likely a greater loss of sales in 2012.
印度的能源問題只會愈演愈烈。目前，週一與週二停電的具體原因尚不明確，但印度的電力需求早已超出發電容量，而且電力價格遠遠低於生產成本。印度發電系統嚴重依賴於燃煤發電和水力發電，而諷刺的是，停電的時候，煤礦也不得不停止開採。週二停電時就有礦工被困井下。預計印度電網20%的電量來自水力發電，而水力發電很大程度上依賴於季節性的雨季。由於氣候條件變幻莫測，這種發電形式並不穩定。今年，印度降雨量低於往年，而且明年可能依然如此。世界銀行（World Bank）的報告稱，2006年，印度因持續停電造成的產品銷售損失至少達到6.6%，這是目前可以拿到的最新數據。2012年，印度產品銷售損失可能更爲慘重。
So what to do besides complain and shrug this off as yet another failing of an ineffective government? Have a backup plan -- and one better than a diesel generator. Green energy is a great possibility, and many Indian startups are already beginning to instal micro-grids to distribute solar and wind power to villages. A company called Selco makes and installs solar panels for about $200, while another, called Simpra Networks, will sell the excess energy generated by these panels to customers who place orders on their phones. These aren't simply a viable replacement to the bulky, noisy engines that powered up my office in Delhi, but a way to begin to bring electricity to the 300 million Indians who don't have access to it in the first place. To them, Blackout Tuesday didn't even register, but it might be just the sort of disaster required for everyone else to wake up, get angry, and start fixing things.
那麼，除了對效率低下的政府表示抱怨和無奈外，印度人還能做什麼？制定備份計劃——同時也應該是比柴油發電機更好的方案。綠色能源是一個很好的選擇，目前，許多印度初創企業已經開始安裝微型電網，向鄉村提供太陽能發電和風能發電。其中，一家名爲Selco的公司可以以200美元的價格製作、安裝太陽能電池板，而另外一家公司Simpra Networks則向消費者出售利用太陽能電池板產生的電力。消費者只需電話下單即可。當然，要用這些方式代替無數體積龐大、噪聲震耳的發電機，並非切實可行的辦法；但至少通過這些方法，無法自備發電機的3億印度人已經能夠用上電了。對這3億人來說，週二大停電或許沒有任何影響，然而面對如此大規模的事故，其他所有人都應該警醒、憤怒，並着手找出解決問題的辦法。
