非洲崛起失去中國動力 Africa's rise is stalled by the Chinese slowdown

Enthusiasts for the “Africa Rising” story of rapid growth on the continent have spent much of the past 15 years strongly denying that the impressive economic performance was essentially about selling commodities to China. That confidence is currently being severely tested.

篤信非洲大陸將實現經濟快速增長的“非洲崛起”故事熱愛者在過去15年裏常常強烈否認這種觀點：非洲引人注目的經濟表現主要是因爲向中國出售大宗商品。這種信念目前正遭遇重大考驗。

Prospects have darkened considerably. Growth momentum in much of sub-Saharan Africa is petering out. The International Monetary Fund reckons that growth rates in the region this year will fall to their lowest since before the global financial crisis and recover only marginally next year.

前景已大爲黯淡。撒哈拉以南非洲大部分地區的增長勢頭正在消失。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)估計，該地區今年的經濟增速將降至自全球金融危機爆發以來最低水平，明年僅會略有回升。

Like many emerging economies, sub-Saharan African nations are discovering that a disturbing proportion of the rise in growth since 2000 was based on exporting expensive raw materials and importing cheap capital. China is the region’s biggest trading partner, and a fall in revenue from selling commodities there is hurting African economies.

與很多新興經濟體一樣，撒哈拉以南非洲地區的國家發現，本地區自2000年以來的經濟增長，來自於出口高價原材料和進口廉價資本的部分大得令人不安。中國是該地區最大貿易伙伴，向中國出售大宗商品的收入下滑正損及非洲經濟。

Unsurprisingly, the worst-affected are the oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola, hit hard by the fall in the global price of crude. The IMF has cut from 7 per cent to 3.5 per cent its predictions for growth this year in the eight main oil-exporting countries, which make up about half of sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product.

不出所料，受影響最大的是尼日利亞和安哥拉等產油國，全球原油價格下跌令這些國家遭受重創。IMF將該地區8個主要石油出口國今年的經濟增速預期從7%下調至3.5%，這些國家佔撒哈拉以南非洲地區國內生產總值(GDP)的一半左右。

Some slowdown was inevitable, but governments have not prepared well. Having failed to use enough of their bumper revenues over the past decade to rebuild reserves, many are coming into the commodity crunch with less fiscal space than they went into the global financial crisis.

一定程度的經濟放緩是不可避免的，但政府沒有做好充分的準備。由於未能充分利用過去十年中的鉅額收入重建儲備，很多國家在遭遇大宗商品危機之際，可運用的財政空間比全球金融危機來襲時還小。

Middle-income countries with significant commodity exports have also been feeling the pinch. Ghana, for example, has been disadvantaged by falls in gold prices. It also stands as a cautionary tale about how mismanagement of natural resources can turn a boon into a curse.

大量出口大宗商品的中等收入國家也受到影響。例如，加納因金價下跌而受到不利影響。該國還展示了一個關於自然資源管理不善可能會把好事變成壞事的警示案例。

Ghana discovered oil in 2007 and began pumping it in 2010. But rather than reduce government debt, hold the revenues offshore in a standalone fund or indeed invest it domestically to increase productive capacity, Accra bought domestic popularity by using anticipated revenue to triple the salaries of the civil service and expand energy subsidies, and borrowed heavily from abroad.

加納2007年發現石油資源，2010年開始開採。但加納沒有減輕政府債務、將海外收入歸入一個獨立基金或切實投資於國內經濟以擴大生產能力，而是利用預期中的收入將公務員薪資提高兩倍並增加能源補貼來提升國內民意支持率，同時從海外大舉借債。

In the latter course, it was not alone. Several African countries issued eurobonds for the first time in their history as the search for yield in a world of super-low interest rates drove investors to hitherto neglected corners of the developing world.

加納並非唯一從海外大舉借債的國家。多個非洲國家在其歷史上首次發行了歐元債券，因爲在全球超低利率環境下追逐收益率的投資者忽視了發展中國家這些角落。

In Ghana’s case at least, the foreign borrowing spree looks even more foolish now than it did at the time. The country’s sovereign debt yields have spiralled, the currency has plunged and this summer the government called in the IMF for a rescue.

至少就加納而言，海外借貸熱潮現在看上去要比當時愚蠢。該國的主權債務收益率已螺旋上升，本幣匯率大幅下挫，今年夏季該國政府請求IMF紓困。

Sub-Saharan African countries do not appear to have seized the opportunity of a favourable external environment to diversify and strengthen their economies sufficiently to thrive despite a change in that environment. Weak business environments and poor infrastructure need to be improved if they are to rise beyond their traditional patterns of dependence on the vagaries of the commodity and capital markets.

撒哈拉以南非洲國家看上去沒有抓住外部有利環境的機遇，真正實現經濟多樣化並增強經濟實力，力求在環境發生變化時仍能蓬勃發展。如果要超越依賴於變幻莫測的大宗商品和資本市場的傳統模式，這些國家就需要改善缺乏活力的商業環境和薄弱的基礎設施。

The pessimism should not be overdone. The continent contains huge potential, and the growth slowdown is less dramatic than in other emerging markets. Still, underdevelopment and inequality remain high. The idea that sub-Saharan Africa was embarking on a sustained growth surge that would lift large swaths of its population out of poverty has for the moment proved overly optimistic.

我們不應過度悲觀。非洲大陸擁有巨大潛力，增長放緩的幅度不像其他新興市場國家那麼大。然而，該地區發展仍然落後，不平等程度仍然很高。認爲撒哈拉以南非洲地區經濟將持續快速增長、使大量人口擺脫貧困的想法目前看來是過度樂觀了。