WTO應放棄多哈回合談判另起爐竈

This week trade ministers from around the world will gather to engage once again in the Doha Round of talks which, for all the initial hopes it represented, simply has not delivered. If global trade is to drive development and prosperity as strongly this century as it did in the last, we need to write a new chapter for the World Trade Organisation that reflects today’s economic realities. It is time for the world to free itself of the strictures of Doha.

本週，世界貿易組織(WTO)召開部長級會議，來自世界各地的部長們將聚在一起，再次進行多哈回合(Doha round)貿易談判。儘管最初曾被寄予厚望，但多哈回合談判迄今未能取得預定成果。如果想讓全球貿易在本世紀像上世紀一樣有力推動發展和繁榮的話，我們需要爲世界貿易組織(WTO)撰寫一個反映當今經濟現狀的新篇章。是時候讓世界擺脫多哈回合的約束了。

While these talks have drifted, other efforts have raced ahead. Leading a group of 12 nations, the US recently concluded the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which raises standards and tackles emerging issues across nearly 40 per cent of the global economy. Meanwhile, the US and the EU are moving forward with the world’s largest bilateral agreement. Trade initiatives outside the WTO have become the norm, with hundreds of agreements signed by scores of countries since Doha was launched.

儘管多哈回合談判脫離了正軌，但其他努力進展迅速。在美國的引領下，12個國家最近達成了《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement，簡稱TPP）。TPP成員國經濟總量佔到全球經濟的40%，該協定提高了標準，並針對一些新問題提出解決方案。與此同時，美國和歐盟正在推進全球最大的雙邊協議。多哈回合談判啓動以來，已經有數十個國家簽訂了數百份協議，在WTO以外發起貿易協議成爲了常態。

Experience, however, suggests that the WTO can deliver with pragmatic approaches. Ratification of the Trade Facilitation Agreement, which would benefit developing countries even more than rich ones by streamlining the flow of goods across borders, is within reach. An expansion of the Information Technology Agreement promises to eliminate hundreds of tariffs on $1tn of technology products, from MRI machines to semiconductors. Also encouraging is progress on an agreement that would liberalise trade in environmental goods.

然而，經驗表明，以務實的方式，WTO能夠產生成果。《貿易便利化協定》(Trade Facilitation Agreement)的正式生效觸手可及。通過簡化商品的跨境流動，該協定對發展中國家的益處甚至超過富裕國家。《信息技術產品協議》（Information Technology Agreement，簡稱ITA）擴大範圍，有望取消對價值1萬億美元的科技產品——從核磁共振儀器到半導體產品——徵收的數百項關稅。另一項旨在實現環保產品貿易自由化的協議，也正在取得令人鼓舞的進展。

So, two-way deals are working. Regional pacts are working. Groups of countries have struck sectoral deals. Only multilateralism — the attempt to reach a comprehensive global deal — is stuck. Getting it unstuck begins with acknowledging that Doha was designed in a different era, for a different era, and much has changed since.

因此，雙邊協議進展順利；區域性協定進展順利；一些國家已經敲定區域性協議。只有試圖達成全球整體協議的多邊主義陷入僵局。要打破僵局，首先要承認，多哈回合是在一個不同的時代、爲另一個不同的時代設計的，自那以來很多事情都已經改變。

When Doha was launched in 2001, the focus was on US and EU agricultural subsidies, which have since been cut. Now, some emerging markets are the biggest providers of agricultural subsidies but would be exempt under Doha from cuts. If you are a poor farmer facing a global market distortion, it does not matter where the subsidies causing it came from. Artificial distinctions between developed and emerging economies make no economic sense.

2001年多哈回合談判啓動時，其重點是美國和歐盟的農業補貼——後來補貼已經被削減。如今，一些新興市場是最大的農業補貼國，但是其補貼政策卻不受制於多哈回合。如果你是一名面對全球市場扭曲的貧窮農民，造成市場扭曲的補貼來自於哪裏對你來說無所謂。人爲對發達經濟體和新興經濟體進行區別，在經濟上沒道理。

Today, Doha negotiations remain deadlocked. After 14 years, including the past two years of intensified engagement, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Cecilia Malmstr洀, EU trade commissioner, and many others have been clear about the need to chart a more productive path.

如今，多哈回合談判仍陷於僵局。在啓動14年(其中包括過去兩年的密集談判)後，多哈回合談判仍然看不到勝利的曙光。歐盟貿易專員塞西莉亞氠爾姆斯特倫(Cecilia Malmstr洀)和其他很多人一直清楚地表明，需要繪製一條更有效的路徑。

That route forward is a new form of pragmatic multilateralism. Moving beyond Doha does not mean leaving its unfinished business behind. Rather, it means bringing new approaches to the table. Doha issues are too important to leave to the Doha architecture that has failed for so long.

那條能夠帶領我們取得進展的路徑，是採取一種新的務實多邊主義。跳過多哈回合並不意味着將其未完成的事情拋諸腦後。相反，這意味着拿出新方法。多哈回合的問題太過重要，我們不能把這些問題留給多哈回合架構來解決，這麼長時間以來，這個架構一直未能有效地發揮作用。

Freeing ourselves from the strictures of Doha would also allow us to explore emerging trade issues. Many developing countries have encouraged new discussions on issues like ecommerce and the needs of small businesses.

擺脫多哈回合的約束，也可能讓我們得以探索貿易領域出現的新問題。如今很多發展中國家都鼓勵就電子商務及小企業需求等問題開展新討論。

One way or the other, this week’s WTO ministerial conference in Nairobi will mark the end of an era. The US is still working to secure a package of measured but meaningful results, but what cannot be achieved in Nairobi will not be achieved by trying again with the same failed approach. Pretending otherwise would intensify the search for solutions outside the WTO, raising questions about its relevance in trade negotiations.

不管怎樣，本週在內羅畢舉行的WTO部長級會議將標誌着一個時代的終結。美國仍在努力促成一攬子慎重但有意義的結果，但是在內羅畢無法實現的目標，以同樣的方法再嘗試一次也不會實現。不正視這一事實，會加劇各國在WTO以外尋找答案的勢頭，讓WTO在貿易談判中的重要性受到質疑。

With global growth slowing and uneven and many traditional economic tools constrained, trade policy has an outsize role to play in spurring inclusive growth. Multilateralism still promises the greatest economic gains in theory. To realise those gains in practice, we need the courage to look, think, and act beyond Doha.

在全球增長放緩且不平衡、許多傳統經濟工具受到制約之際，貿易政策在促進包容性增長方面要唱重頭戲。理論上，多邊主義仍有望取得最大的經濟收益。要真正實現這些收益，我們需要擁有跳過多哈回合去展望、思考和行動的勇氣。