徐翔被抓只是時間問題 Xu downfall in China was just matter of time
The detention of “kamikaze” China hedge fund manager Xu Xiangfor alleged insider trading after a manhunt was front page news, but to industry insiders it was a downfall foretold.
在一通追捕後，以“漲停板敢死隊總舵主”的稱號聞名的中國對衝基金經理徐翔，因涉嫌內幕交易被拘，這一幕成了各報刊的頭版新聞。然而，對業內人士來說，徐翔的落馬早有先兆。
Renowned as “captain” of the “Limit-up Kamikaze Squad”, a loose-knit group of fund managers centred on the port city of Ningbo, Mr Xu favoured bets that were big, bold and bountiful.
徐翔偏愛高額、大膽、暴利的下注。而以他爲首的所謂“漲停板敢死隊”，則是指以港口城市寧波爲中心的一羣組織鬆散的基金經理。
The squad’s nickname salutes its ability to push stocks up by the 10 per cent daily limit imposed by China exchanges.
“漲停板敢死隊”的稱號，是在稱頌他們將股價炒高至觸及10%的中國證交所單日漲幅上限的能力。
In a market where many investors believe riches elude those who play by the rules, Mr Xu’s Zexi Investment Management drew scepticism.
在這個被許多投資者認爲遵守遊戲規則者與致富無緣的市場中，徐翔的澤熙投資管理公司(Zexi Investment Management)引起了人們的懷疑。
Five of Zexi’s products ranked among the top 20 in China by total return in 2015, with one taking the top spot. Its Series 1 fund has returned 3,270 per cent since launching in 2010.
2015年，澤熙五隻基金產品的總回報率在中國排到了前20名，其中一隻名列榜首。自2010年推出以來，該公司“澤熙一期”基金累計回報率已達3270%。
A hedge fund manager in Shanghai said: “Xu’s getting caught was just a matter of time. It just came a bit earlier than expected.”
上海一名對衝基金經理表示：“徐翔被抓只是時間問題。它只是比預料的早了一點。”
The manager added that Mr Xu’s conduct had been “an open secret”.
該基金經理補充說，徐翔的行爲是“公開的祕密”。
Despite being ranked China’s 188th wealthiest person on the Hurun Rich List, with worth estimated at Rmb14bn ($2.2bn), little is known about the low-key Mr Xu, pictured right, and his fellow kamikazes. Until Sunday, no confirmed photos of him were available online.
在胡潤百富榜(Hurun Rich List)上，徐翔是中國排名第188位的富豪，估計身家達140億元人民幣（合22億美元）。儘管如此，對於低調的徐翔及其“敢死隊”成員，外界知之甚少。直到上週日以前，網上還找不到經確認的他的照片。
But media reports and interviews with fund managers paint a portrait of the squad as investors willing to operate at the frontiers of legality — and sometimes beyond — in the wild west of China’s capital markets.
不過，媒體報道和對基金經理的採訪描繪出這個“敢死隊”的形象——他們是中國資本市場“狂野西部”中的一羣敢於遊走於法律邊緣（有時還會越界）的投資者。
“Ningbo capitalists are different from those in other places,” says Hua Xiuping, finance professor at University of Nottingham Ningbo. “Their appetite for risk is high. This spirit has benefited entrepreneurship in Ningbo, but the love of gambling isn’t good for the long-term development of financial markets.”
寧波諾丁漢大學(University of Nottingham Ningbo)金融學教授華秀萍表示：“寧波的資本家與其他地方不同。他們的風險偏好很高。這種精神有益於在寧波創業。然而，熱愛賭博對金融市場的長期發展並無益處。”
Mr Hua says that compared with other places, Ningbo investors are focused on short-term gain. “Research, buy in, sell out. Everything is quick.”
華秀萍表示，與其他地方相比，寧波的投資者關注的是短期收益。“研究，買入，賣出。一切都發生得很快。”
In 1993, an 18-year-old Mr Xu abandoned studying for China’s ruthlessly competitive university entrance exam, and borrowed several hundred thousand renminbi from his parents to play the markets, according to Caixin, a financial magazine that interviewed him in 2012.
財經雜誌《財新》(Caixin)曾在2012年採訪過徐翔。該雜誌報道，1993年，18歲的徐翔放棄了中國高考的殘酷競爭，帶着父母給的幾萬元人民幣本錢進入股票市場。
By the late 1990s he and associates from Ningbo had earned the “Limit-up Kamikaze” moniker for their penchant for high-stakes bets. Other traders began monitoring buy orders coming from the Galaxy Securities trading hall on South Liberation Road in Ningbo for clues about which stocks the squad favoured.
到上世紀90年代末，他和來自寧波的同伴已因其對高額下注的偏好而贏得了“漲停板敢死隊”的綽號。其他交易員也開始跟蹤發自寧波解放南路銀河證券(Galaxy Securities)交易大廳的買盤，尋找這支敢死隊偏好的股票的線索。
Among his fellow kamikazes was Ye Qingjun, chairman of Dunhe Investment, known as “China’s George Soros” for parlaying a Rmb100,000 mortgage on his home in 2003 into a Rmb10bn fortune, starting with a bet on soya beans.
徐翔的“敢死隊”中有個成員名叫葉慶均，是敦和投資(Dunhe Investment)的董事長。他把2003年通過抵押房子借來的10萬元人民幣，從投資大豆期貨開始，變成100億元人民幣的財富，這讓他被譽爲“中國的喬治∠坽斯(George Soros)”。
Mr Ye gained attention earlier this year when China funds including Dunhe took big short positions in copper futures, a bear attack that traders said was “beautifully” timed.
今年早些時候，葉慶均曾引起人們的關注。當時，包括敦和在內的多隻中國基金大規模做空期銅。交易員表示，這次做空的時機選擇“十分完美”。
“If you think American traders are aggressive, these guys are three times as big and as fast and crazy,” said a trader at the time. “It’s like they’re on speed.”
當時，一名交易員表示：“如果你認爲美國交易員很激進的話，那麼這些傢伙在交易規模、速度和瘋狂程度上是美國交易員的三倍。他們就像嗑了藥一樣。”
Not all the kamikazes’ trades went smoothly. In 2007 Zhou Jianming, an associate of Mr Xu from Ningbo, was fined Rmb3.5m for illegal trading practices. China’s securities regulator accused Mr Zhou of submitting buy orders, which he then promptly cancelled — “ spoofing” aimed at fooling other investors into buying on the back of perceived strong demand.
“漲停板敢死隊”並不是所有交易都一帆風順。2007年，徐翔來自寧波的夥伴周建明曾因違法交易被沒收和罰款350萬元人民幣。中國證券業監管機構指控周建明在提交買單後又快速將其取消。這種“幌騙”(spoofing)手法旨在欺騙其他投資者，讓他們以爲存在強勁的需求而買入。
The kamikazes found ways of putting the attention they attracted from other investors to advantage, using it to influence herd behaviour in a market where psychology often trumps fundamentals.
這支“敢死隊”還想到多種辦法，對他們從其他投資者那裏吸引到的關注加以利用。在這個心理因素往往會壓倒基本面因素的市場中，他們會利用這種關注來影響市場中的從衆行爲。
Mr Xu and his associates were known for their skill at da pan — “pound the board” — a technique akin to “pump and dump”, though the Chinese term does not necessarily imply illegality. The practice is especially easy with smaller, illiquid stocks. Once other investors poured in, the kamikazes sold at a profit.
徐翔及他的夥伴們以一種類似於拉高出貨的操盤技術而聞名。對於規模較小、流動性較差的股票，這種操作尤其容易。一旦其他投資者大舉涌入，“敢死隊”就會獲利出貨。
In one trade, Mr Xu bought into Chongqing Brewery in early 2012 just after the stock had fallen from Rmb83 to Rmb20 in a few days. The stock had rocketed after the company announced, improbably, that it had stumbled on a potential hepatitis-B vaccine.
2012年初，就在重慶啤酒(Chongqing Brewery)股價在幾天內從每股83元人民幣跌至每股20元人民幣之後，徐翔大舉買入該股。重慶啤酒之前曾飆漲，因爲其宣佈偶然發現了一種可能的乙肝疫苗（這讓人不太敢相信）。
