財政實力是新興市場央行政策的後盾

Financial assets across the world have taken a beating since the start of the year. Policymakers in emerging markets already know the feeling. Since the long boom in middle-income economies came to an end two or three years ago and waves of turbulence rocked their asset markets, central banks and finance ministries have been trying to work out what to do.

自今年開始以來，全球金融資產受到了重創。新興市場的政策制定者此前就已體會到這種感覺。自從兩三年前中等收入經濟體的長期繁榮走向終結、其資本市場受到多輪動盪衝擊以來，這些經濟體的央行和財長一直在試圖想出應對之策。

Investors still too often treat emerging economies as though they were an undifferentiated mass. In reality some have more options than others, depending on how policymakers prepared for the inevitable tightening of external financial conditions.

太多時候，投資者仍將各新興市場經濟體視爲互無差別的一個羣體。事實上，其中一些經濟體面臨的選擇比其他經濟體多一些，具體要看各個經濟體的政策制定者爲不可避免的外部資金狀況收緊做準備的情況如何。

One of the more original contributions to the debate arrived this week from Agustín Carstens, the well-regarded governor of the Banco de Mexico. He suggested central banks look to intervene in bond markets to prevent a credit crunch. The withdrawal of foreign capital has starved many emerging market sovereign debt markets of a ready supply of buyers.

受到業界敬重的墨西哥央行(Banco de México)行長阿古斯丁慍斯滕斯(Agustín Carstens,上圖)本週爲這場辯論貢獻了一個更具原創性的點子。他建議各央行尋求干預債券市場，以阻止一場信貸緊縮。外國資本的撤出，令許多新興市場主權債務市場缺乏現成的買方。

Mr Carstens stopped short of advocating full-blown quantitative easing on the model of the US Federal Reserve and other developed economy central banks. Instead, he suggested that central banks could swap long-dated bonds for short-dated, thus easing liquidity problems further down the yield curve and in effect acting as a market-maker of last resort.

卡斯滕斯終究沒有呼籲按照美國美聯儲(Fed)及其他發達經濟體央行的模式、推行大規模量化寬鬆，而是建議各央行可以用短期債券交換長期債券，從而以較低的收益率緩解流動性問題，在實質上扮演最後做市商的角色。

For a relatively stable, functioning economy like Mexico, such a move may make sense, though it carries substantial risks. Mr Carstens accepted that it would be a policy to which he would turn only reluctantly.

對於墨西哥這樣相對穩定、運轉正常的經濟體來說，這一舉措可能是合理的——儘管它可能會帶來很大風險。卡斯滕斯承認，他只會在被逼無奈的情況下實施這一政策。

For the more typical emerging market where the fiscal solvency of the government is doubtful, the dangers of such a policy almost certainly outweigh the benefits. The problem arises from the aftermath of the flood of capital into emerging markets during the boom that followed the global financial crisis. The inflow was aided, ironically enough, by the QE practised by the Fed, which sent money around the world searching for higher yields. While emerging market governments often avoided racking up big debts themselves, many of their corporates went on a dollar-denominated borrowing spree that left economies vulnerable to currency depreciation.

對於政府財政償付能力令人懷疑的更典型的新興市場，實施這種政策的危險幾乎肯定超過了它帶來的好處。這其中的問題，來自在全球金融危機後的繁榮期大量涌入新興市場的資金的影響。足夠諷刺的是，當初對新興市場的資金流入起到推波助瀾作用的正是美聯儲實施的量化寬鬆計劃，該計劃向全球各地輸送了大量尋求更高收益的資金。儘管新興市場政府本身大多會避免積累高額債務，但新興市場的企業中卻有不少大肆借入了以美元計價的債務，從而令新興市場經濟體易於受到本國貨幣貶值的衝擊。

In this context, undertaking a policy that is likely to be seen as monetary loosening while the Fed is tightening is fraught with the danger of encouraging further devaluation, making the debt problem worse. This is particularly true for those economies like Brazil and South Africa, where high inflation and fiscal laxity have driven down their currencies and questioned the solvency of the government, let alone their corporates.

在這種局面下，在美聯儲收緊貨幣政策的同時，實施一種可能會被視爲貨幣寬鬆政策的舉措，極有可能促使本國貨幣進一步貶值，從而令債務問題惡化。對於巴西和南非這類經濟體尤爲如此：在這些經濟體中，高通脹和寬鬆的財政政策已壓低了本幣匯率，令就連政府的償債能力都受到質疑，更不用說企業的了。

Ultimately, the credibility of monetary policy needs fiscal solidity as a backstop. The policy outlined by Mr Carstens makes sense only if it involves tiding markets over a bad patch that policymakers, and investors, can safely regard as temporary. That is not, sadly, the position in which many emerging markets find themselves.

歸根結底，貨幣政策的可信度需要財政實力做後盾。卡斯滕斯提出的政策建議，只有在一種情況下是合理的：當市場面臨的糟糕狀況是政策制定者和投資者能夠有把握地認定爲臨時性的，這一政策不過是爲了幫助市場渡過這一臨時難關。可悲的是，許多新興市場的處境並非如此。

It is hard to think of more than a small handful of countries where the idea of the central bank being market-maker of last resort is both practicable and reasonably safe. Emerging markets rode out the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 quite well relative to developed economies. They are unlikely to do so again this time.

央行充當最後做市商的想法既具備可行性又比較安全的國家寥寥無幾。相對於發達經濟體，新興市場生龍活虎地渡過了2008年至2009年的全球金融危機。這一次，它們不太可能再這樣。

Mr Carstens’s idea is an interesting intervention in the debate about the function of central banks in the emerging markets. Unfortunately, with the exception of himself, there appear to be few central bank governors for whom it is a wise proposition.

在這場關於新興市場央行功能的辯論中，卡斯滕斯提出的想法是一次有趣的參與。遺憾的是，除了對他自己而言，這個提議對其他幾乎所有央行行長而言似乎都是不明智的。