分析報告 中國牛市背後的政策意圖

As Chinese stocks have soared to their highest since the financial crisis, many analysts point the finger to Beijing, calling the year-long bull run a state-sanctioned rally.

隨着中國股市飆升至金融危機以來的最高點位，很多分析人士將矛頭直指北京，稱歷時一年的本輪牛市受到了政府鼓勵。

But what do Chinese policy makers hope to gain from luring millions of savers into the stock market, which some warn is already in bubble territory?

那麼，吸引數百萬儲戶進入被認爲已經出現泡沫的股市，中國的政策制定者希望達到什麼目的？

Here are some possible economic benefits of the China rally.

中國股市大漲可能給經濟帶來以下幾點益處：

The wealth effect

財富效應

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence.” Not the words of any China analyst, but rather those of Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, discussing quantitative easing in 2010.

“股價上漲使消費者財富增加，有助於增強信心。”這句話並非出自哪一個對中國感興趣的分析師之口，而是2010年時任美聯儲(Fed)主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在談論量化寬鬆時所說的。

The idea holds weight for China, too. Rising stock prices could make consumers feel more flush, encouraging them to go out and spend. If effective, this would accelerate Beijing’s long-stated goal of creating a more consumption-driven economy. Recent research from Boston Consulting Group showed the stock market rally had helped create 1m new millionaires in China last year, although evidence of a knock-on retail boom remains thin.

這句話同樣適用於中國。股價上漲，消費者會感覺自己錢多了，自然就會更多地出門消費。如果這種說法有效的話，將有利於北京加快實現長期以來強調的目標——打造一個更多由消費驅動的經濟。波士頓諮詢集團(Boston Consulting Group)最近一項調查顯示，在去年，股市上漲使中國新增加了100萬名百萬富翁，但牛市帶動零售繁榮的證據仍然不夠充分。

Rising stocks also have a secondary benefit of distracting people from the deteriorating growth picture, some analysts say. Perhaps the government is simply after positive news stories amid headlines dominated by the economic slowdown.

一些分析人士稱，股市上漲還有一個次要好處——讓人們別過多注意不斷惡化的經濟增長前景。也許政府只是在新聞頭條都被經濟放緩消息佔據的情況下尋找一些正面消息。

A covert debt-for-equity swap

祕而不宣的債轉股

China’s post-financial crisis credit boom has left the banking system facing the prospect of a wave of damaging defaults. Many analysts expect this to result in a full-blown recapitalisation of the big state-owned lenders by the central government.

中國在全球金融危機以後出現的信貸繁榮，造成銀行系統如今面臨着可能出現一波破壞性違約的前景。很多分析人士預計，這將促使中央政府對大型國有銀行進行一場全面資本重組。

But a buoyant equity market might enable some of that to happen on the sly. Higher share prices and abundant liquidity make it easier and more attractive for companies to raise cash from the equity market — which they have been doing in large amounts. So far this year, Chinese companies have raised $115bn via initial public offerings and share placements, according to Dealogic. Some of that cash is being used to pay down debt. So China’s savers, without knowing it, may be helping to repair bank balance sheets.

但是，一個繁榮的股市或許可以使部分資本重整悄然地進行。上漲的股價和充裕的流動性使企業從股市融資更容易實現、也更具吸引力——它們的確在大量從股市融資。Dealogic數據顯示，今年迄今，中國企業通過首次公開發行(IPO)和配股已經籌集了1150億美元。其中的一部分資金被用於償還債務。於是，毫不知情的中國儲戶可能正在幫忙修復銀行的資產負債表。

Redirect cash to where it is needed

引導現金流向需要的地方

Lower interest rates are meant to make it easier for all companies to borrow. But in China, banks tend to extend new credit only to other big state-owned companies when monetary policy gets looser. This encourages the status quo, not the market-driven system China says it wants.

利率下調按說應該使所有企業更容易借貸。但在中國，在貨幣政策趨向寬鬆的時候，銀行往往只向其他大型國有企業發放新的信貸。這會鼓勵現狀繼續保持下去，而不是形成中國自稱希望實現的由市場力量決定的體系。

The current equity rally has been most obvious in Shenzhen-listed small-caps — typically young tech or healthcare companies — while hulking state-owned enterprises have seen only tepid gains. Giving those from “new economy” sectors freer access to cash fits Beijing’s broader goal of rebalancing away from heavy industry. While the danger is a Nasdaq-like bubble, the hope is that a few more Amazons and Alibabas emerge from any future crash.

在當前股市上漲中，漲勢最猛的是在深圳上市的小型股（通常是創立不久的科技或醫療保健公司），而龐大的國有企業只出現了溫和上漲。讓“新經濟”領域的企業更容易融資，符合北京方面再平衡的整體目標——減少重工業。儘管存在出現納斯達克(Nasdaq)式泡沫的風險，但假如未來爆發股災，有可能涌現出更多的類似亞馬遜(Amazon)或阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的企業。

Investment alternatives

提供投資選擇

China is no stranger to investment fads. One recent example is property speculation, which resulted in a wave of overbuilding in places where people still don’t seem that keen to live. That has been a significant factor in the current growth slowdown, as developers cut back on construction.

投資熱在中國並不少見。比較近的一個例子是炒房，這造成人們居住需求似乎仍不旺盛的地方出現一波過度建設。這是導致目前中國經濟增長放緩的一個重要因素，因爲開發商減少了建設活動。

Wealth management products, which offered guaranteed returns achieved through lending to some of the riskiest parts of the economy, were another popular bet.

理財產品曾經是另一個投資熱點，它通過向經濟中一些風險最高的領域出借資金，向投資者提供有保證的收益。