美國通脹保值債券Tips受到追捧

Investors have rushed to snap up inflation-proofed US government bonds in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which analysts say indicated that officials are willing to tolerate higher inflation before tightening monetary policy more aggressively.

在上週的美聯儲(Fed)會議之後，投資者爭相買入有規避通脹衝擊功能的美國政府債券。分析師表示，此次會議表明美聯儲官員在更積極收緊貨幣政策之前，願意容忍更高的通脹率。

The recent recovery of oil prices — a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude last week rose above the $40 mark for the first time since December — has helped support so-called “Tips”, Treasury bonds that are protected against inflation, but the dovishness of the US central bank has poured more fuel on the rally.

近期油價回升：上週，西德克薩斯中質油(West Texas Intermediate, WTI)自去年12月以來第一次升破每桶40美元。這爲美國財政部發行的“通脹保值債券”(Tips)提供了支撐，而美聯儲的鴿派立場更有火上澆油的作用。

“Just when it seemed like Tips had entered an abyss, they threw a surprise party,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts wrote in a research report.

“就在Tips似乎跌入深淵之際，他們搞了一場驚喜派對，”美銀美林(BoAML)分析師在一份研究報告中寫道。

The price of the 10-year Tips bond rallied 1.7 per cent last week, pushing the yield to a one-year low of 0.26 per cent. BlackRock’s flagship Tips exchange-traded fund enjoyed its strongest weekly rally since March 2015.

上週，10年期Tips的價格上漲了1.7%，收益率跌至1年來的低點0.26%。貝萊德(BlackRock)的旗艦Tips交易所交易基金(ETF)出現了自2015年3月以來的最大單週漲幅。

So-called “break-even rates”, which are often seen as a gauge of expected inflation derived from comparing the yields of conventional and inflation-proof Treasuries, have jumped this month, and climbed even higher in the wake of Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

“盈虧平衡通脹率”(break-even rates)本月以來大幅上升，在上週三的美聯儲會議之後漲得更高。該通脹率經常被視爲預期通脹率的衡量指標，爲普通國債和通脹保值國債的收益率之差。

The 10-year break-even rate rose to 1.62 per cent last week, the highest since December. The five-year rate rose to 1.52 per cent, the highest since last summer. And the two-year climbed to 1.64 per cent — the highest since July 2014.

上週，10年期盈虧平衡通脹率上升至1.62%，爲去年12月以來的最高位。5年期盈虧平衡通脹率漲至1.52%，爲去年夏季以來的最高位。2年期盈虧平衡通脹率漲至1.64%，爲2014年7月以來的最高位。

Rising break-evens reflect a sharp shift in investors’ views on inflation, brought on by the recovery in oil prices, accelerating “core” US inflation — which exceeded expectations for a second month running to climb to an annual rate of 2.3 per cent in February — and the Fed’s increasingly cautious stance.

盈虧平衡通脹率上升，反映投資者對通脹的預期發生了顯著變化，原因在於油價復甦、美國“核心”通脹率加速上漲——在2月份連續第二個月超出預期，升至2.3%的年率——以及美聯儲的立場趨於謹慎。

The Fed now foresees just two quarter-point increases in its interest rate corridor in 2016, compared to four previously, and has pared its forecasts for 2017 and 2018 as well. Money managers say these were significant revisions that indicate a shift in the Fed’s thinking towards stronger acceptance of letting inflation accelerate above its 2 per cent target. Chris Iggo, head of fixed income at Axa Investment Managers, said he now expected the 10-year US break-even rate to climb to 2 per cent.

目前，美聯儲預測，在2016年的利率走廊中將僅僅加息兩次，每次25個基點——之前預測爲4次——並降低了對2017年和2018年的加息預期。基金經理們表示，這些重大調整表明，美聯儲的想法變得更願意容忍讓通脹率加速升到2%以上。安盛投資管理公司(Axa Investment Managers)固定收益主管克里斯•伊戈(Chris Iggo)表示，現在他預計10年期美國盈虧平衡通脹率將上升到2%。

“The signals are clear,” he wrote in a note to clients. “The Fed is happy to allow core inflation to run higher before it really tightens because of the risk of a weaker international environment having some kind of stalling impact on the stronger US domestic economy.”

“美聯儲發出了清晰的信號，”他在寫給客戶的一份報告中稱，“他們在真正收緊銀根之前願意允許核心通脹率升得更高，這是因爲較弱的國際環境有可能對較強的美國國內經濟產生某種抑制作用。”

Fed chair Janet Yellen hinted at this at the Wednesday press conference. “We are not trying to engineer an overshoot … but it is a symmetric objective,” she said, indicating that officials were as comfortable with inflation accelerating above that mark as staying below.

美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)在上週三的記者招待會上暗示了這一點。她說，“我們並不試圖引導通脹率超標……但這是一個均衡的目標。”這是暗示不論通脹率加快上升到目標水平之上，還是保持在目標水平之下，美聯儲官員們都是可以接受的。