負利率政策不該被捨棄

The mixed results from experiments with negative interest rate policy in Europe and Japan have led many to conclude that the idea is ill begotten and should be abandoned. To do so would be a serious mistake.

歐洲和日本試行負利率政策產生了好壞參半的結果，這讓許多人斷定，負利率的想法考慮不周，應該予以放棄。這將是個巨大的錯誤。

The negative rate policies that are in place certainly have significant limits and it is not clear how much more can be done in the short term. However, policy could be made far more effective in the long run, once a host of institutional constraints are dealt with. The thorniest problem is avoiding a run into zero-interest cash if interest rates become too negative but even this is far from an insurmountable obstacle, given time.

正在推行的負利率政策當然有着巨大的侷限性，而且也不清楚短期還能有多大效果。然而，一旦一系列制度約束解除，這項政策長期而言可能有效得多。最棘手的問題是，如果利率進入較大的負值區間，如何避免發生擠提零利率現金的情況，但假以時日，即便該問題也絕非是難以克服的障礙。

In what could turn out to be a protracted era of low “normal” interest rates, the benefits of clearing the way for effective negative rate policy are potentially significant. If central banks had been able to adopt such policies at the height of the financial crisis, for example, it is likely this would have helped stem the fall in employment, output and asset prices.

我們可能正處於一個低利率成爲長期“常態”的時代，爲有效負利率政策掃清道路具有潛在的巨大益處。例如，如果各國央行能夠在金融危機最嚴重時期出臺此類政策，可能就阻止了就業、產出和資產價格的下跌。

True, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve chair, has argued that the US central bank should not need to rely on negative interest rates to fight the next deep recession. Unconventional monetary policy tools such as quantitative easing and forward guidance should be enough, she believes, if applied widely.

的確，美聯儲(Fed)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)辯稱，美聯儲應該不需要依賴負利率來抗擊下一場深度衰退。她相信，如果廣泛應用的話，量化寬鬆和前瞻性指引等非常規貨幣政策就足夠了。

One hopes she is right, given there will probably not be time to lay the foundations for effective negative rate policy before the next recession hits. Unfortunately, based on the academic literature and the experience of the past seven years, there is little reason to believe that is the case.

鑑於在下一場衰退來臨之前很可能沒有時間爲有效負利率政策奠定基礎，人們會希望她說的是正確的。遺憾的是，從學術文獻和過去7年的經驗來看，幾乎沒有理由認爲情況的確如此。

Some people argue that negative interest rates are unnatural and unprecedented. This is certainly an emotive topic but we should at least get the facts straight. Negative rates are not unprecedented in any meaningful sense. Before paper currency, monarchs routinely debased money, for example by introducing coins with a lower silver content and using these to repay debts.

一些人聲稱，負利率是非自然的，而且史無前例。這當然是一個情緒化的話題，但我們至少應該搞清事實。從真正意義上來說，負利率並非史無前例。在紙質貨幣之前，君主們定期貶值貨幣，例如推出含有較低銀含量的硬幣，並用這些貨幣償還債務。

The problem of the zero lower bound — the idea that interest rates could not go lower — only really emerged with paper currency, but then governments simply turned to the printing press to debase currency in real terms through inflation. To say that real interest rates caused by inflation are unfortunate but negative nominal rates are unnatural is to promulgate financial illiteracy.

零利率下限——利率不可能低於零的觀點——只是隨着紙幣的出現纔出現的，但接着政府開始通過印鈔催生通脹來讓貨幣貶值（實際價值）。說實際利率是通脹導致的固然令人遺憾，但說名義負利率非自然是忽悠那些不懂金融知識的人。

The case for negative rate policy becomes all the stronger when one looks at other proposals for stimulating the economy when the zero lower bound constraint is binding. Of course, there is fiscal policy (and everyone agrees on the desirability of debt-financed infrastructure spending).

在零利率下限的約束下，看看能夠刺激經濟的其他方法，你會發現更有理由推行負利率政策了。當然政府還可以推出財政政策（所有人都同意舉債建設基礎設施是可取的）。

Beyond that, there is a swath of policies economists might ordinarily consider highly counterproductive but which can sometimes make sense when monetary policy is unable to generate inflation. These include calls for greater protectionism because it raises prices; backpedalling on structural reform because greater efficiency lowers prices, and an outsize role for the government in private credit markets.

除此以外，一系列政策可能被經濟學家認爲效果完全適得其反，但在貨幣政策無法產生通脹的時候，這些政策有時也是具有意義的。它們包括呼籲加強保護主義，因爲這會提升價格；讓結構性改革倒退，因爲效率提升會降低價格；以及讓政府過度干預私人信貸市場。

But surely protectionism and negative structural reform are potentially far more dangerous than effective negative interest rate policy, were the latter possible? Clear-headed macroeconomic policymaking is hard enough in normal times. It is far more difficult when the zero lower bound clouds the horizon.

但保護主義和結構性改革倒退的潛在風險肯定要比有效負利率政策大得多——假如負利率政策有可能實施。明智的宏觀經濟政策制定在正常時期就夠困難的了。當零利率下限逼近的時候就更加困難。

The steps that need to be taken are clear enough, particularly phasing out the large denomination notes that would be at the centre of any run into cash. This ought to be done anyway as a measure to reduce crime and tax evasion.

需要採取的舉措已經非常明顯，尤其是廢除大額鈔票——如果發生擠提現金情況，大額鈔票將是擠提的核心。無論如何都應該廢除大額鈔票，因爲這有助於減少犯罪和逃稅。

Whenever the next financial crisis comes, central banks should not have to be asking themselves again why they did not think more about the zero lower bound beforehand. The time to get ready is now.

無論下一場金融危機何時來臨，央行都不應再次自問，爲何它們沒有事先更多地考慮零利率下限。現在就應該做準備。