歐盟最大的考驗將來自波蘭

Poland was where the second world war started and where the Soviet empire began to crumble. Now the country may once again play a crucial role in European history. A struggle between the European Commission in Brussels and the Polish government is shaping up as an existential test for the EU.

波蘭是第二次世界大戰爆發之地，也是蘇聯帝國開始瓦解之地。如今，這個國家或將再次在歐洲的歷史上扮演重要角色。位於布魯塞爾的歐盟委員會(European Commission)與波蘭政府之間的一場鬥爭，正在演變爲關乎歐盟存亡的一場考驗。

In December, for the first time ever, the commission started a formal procedure that could strip a member state of its voting rights. The Polish government stands accused of violating the EU’s founding principles, which include “democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights”.

去年12月，歐盟委員會史無前例地啓動了一項可以剝奪一個成員國投票權的正式程序。波蘭政府被指違反了包括“民主、平等、法治、尊重人權”在內的歐盟的基本原則。

The battle over Poland is turning into a test case over the strength of populism — not just in Europe, but around the world. Charles Kupchan, who ran the Europe department in the Obama White House, wrote last week: “With the United States missing in action, it is up to the European Union to defend the principles and practices of democratic society. The fate of Poland, Europe and the west is on the line.”

圍繞波蘭發生的這場鬥爭，正在演變爲對民粹主義實力的一次測試——不僅在歐洲，而且是在全世界範圍內。奧巴馬(Obama)主政白宮時期擔任歐洲事務高級官員的查爾斯?庫普錢(Charles Kupchan)不久前寫道：“由於美國不再出頭，要靠歐盟來捍衛民主社會的原則和實踐了。這關係到波蘭、歐洲以及西方的命運。”

But those hoping that the EU will win a decisive battle against populist authoritarianism in Poland are liable to be disappointed. A combination of politics and strategic considerations are more likely to lead to a messy compromise.

但那些希望歐盟能在與波蘭民粹威權主義的決戰中獲勝的人士，可能會大失所望。政治考量加上戰略考量，更有可能帶來一場稀裏糊塗的妥協。

The Polish government moves that have alarmed the EU include turning state broadcasting into a propaganda arm of the government. But the main bone of contention is a set of new laws that have cleared the way for the government to stack the Polish courts.

波蘭政府令歐盟警惕的舉動之一是將國家廣播電視機構變爲政府的宣傳部門。但引發爭議的焦點是一系列新法律，這些新法律爲波蘭政府在法院安插自己人掃清了道路。

The European Commission agonised long and hard before taking action over Poland. It knows that, in many important respects, Poland remains a proper democracy. State television is a bad joke, but there is still a strong independent media and there are vigorous opposition parties. However, the Polish government has already started to make life more difficult for the independent media and it is also pushing through “reforms” of the voting system that are raising fears about the integrity of future elections.

歐盟委員會在對波蘭採取行動之前苦苦思索了很久。它清楚，在許多重要方面，波蘭仍是一個夠格的民主國家。雖然波蘭國家電視臺發生的事情讓人苦笑，但波蘭國內仍存在着強大的獨立媒體以及強有力的反對黨。然而，波蘭政府已經開始採取行動讓獨立媒體的日子不好過，同時還在推動投票體制的“改革”——此舉引發了對未來選舉公正性的擔憂。

The EU authorities felt they had to draw a line. However, they also know that Poland is potentially a “lose, lose” situation for them. If the EU fails to take action, it will stand accused of ignoring threats to democracy and the rule of law. But, by taking action, the authorities in Brussels allow a nationalist government to argue that foreign bureaucrats are attempting to undermine Polish independence. Even worse, this is a battle that the EU might well lose. Hungary, which is also sliding into authoritarian populism, has threatened to veto any move against Poland. That could leave the EU looking impotent, divided and unable to defend its core values.

歐盟當局認爲他們不得不畫出一條底線。然而，他們也明白，波蘭對他們而言可能是一場“雙輸”。如果不採取行動，歐盟將被指責無視民主和法治受到的威脅。但採取行動又會貽人口實，讓一個奉行民族主義的政府有理由說，外國官僚企圖破壞波蘭的獨立。更糟糕的是，這是一場歐盟很可能會輸的鬥爭。同樣正在滑向威權民粹主義的匈牙利已經威脅要否決任何針對波蘭的行動。這可能會使歐盟看起來既軟弱又分裂，且無力捍衛自己的核心價值觀。

The risks for the EU are only increased because the Polish government can make a case that it is being unfairly singled out. The Hungarian government, led by Viktor Orban, has gone even further than Poland in undermining the independence of the media and the courts, but has, so far, evaded censure. One reason might be that the EU was simply asleep at the wheel as Mr Orban made his moves. But a less palatable explanation is that Mr Orban has taken the precaution of keeping his Fidesz party within the European People’s party (EPP), which is the dominant grouping in the European Parliament. As a result he has powerful friends in Germany. By contrast, Poland’s governing Law and Justice party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is outside the EPP tent.

歐盟面臨的風險只會不斷增加，因爲波蘭政府可以主張歐盟不公平地單獨針對它。歐爾班?維克托(Viktor Orban)領導的匈牙利政府在破壞媒體和法院獨立性方面做得比波蘭更甚，但迄今並未受到譴責。其中一個原因或許是，歐爾班採取行動時，歐盟在方向盤上睡着了。但是，一個讓人不太好想的解釋是，歐爾班採取了預防措施，把他的青民盟(Fidesz party)留在了歐洲人民黨(EPP)中，後者是歐洲議會(European Parliament)的第一大黨團。因爲這個原因，他在德國擁有了強大的盟友。相比之下，雅羅斯瓦夫?卡欽斯基(Jaroslaw Kaczynski)領導的波蘭執政黨——法律與公正黨(Law and Justice party)並非歐洲人民黨會員。

The argument that the EU is guilty of double standards is bolstered by events in Spain, where elected politicians are in prison for staging a referendum on independence for Catalonia. The EU can respond that the referendum was illegal and that the Spanish courts have acted within the bounds of the current constitution and respected media freedom. Nonetheless, the government in Warsaw will point out that it is Spain — not Poland — that is currently imprisoning opposition politicians.

西班牙的事態支持瞭如下主張：歐盟執行雙重標準。在西班牙，經選舉產生的政治家因爲就加泰羅尼亞獨立舉行公投而被捕。歐盟可以迴應，該公投爲非法，西班牙法院在當前憲法許可的範圍內採取了行動，且尊重了媒體自由。然而，華沙政府可以指出，現在將反對派政治家投入監獄的是西班牙，而非波蘭。

The Polish government’s argument that it is being singled out because of its cultural conservatism and criticism of the EU may throw up enough smoke to obscure the clear-cut threat to the rule of law in Poland. And that, combined with broader geopolitical pressures, could push Brussels and Warsaw into a compromise.

波蘭政府主張，由於其文化保守主義和對歐盟的批評，它被單獨拎出來收拾，這一主張或許能製造足夠的煙幕，從而掩蓋波蘭國內法治面臨的切實威脅。加上更廣泛的地緣政治壓力，這可能促使布魯塞爾與華沙達成妥協。

The German government in particular is very torn about taking action against Poland. For historical and geographical reasons, it regards reconciliation with Poland as a crucial imperative.

德國政府尤其對收拾波蘭感到爲難。由於歷史和地理原因，德國將與波蘭和解視爲一項重要的義務。

Compromise may already be in the works. Last week Poland reshuffled its government and removed some of the people regarded as “crazies” in Brussels. Early talks between the Polish government and the European Commission were conducted in polite terms. In Warsaw, there is now talk that the Polish government may come up with some cosmetic concessions, in the hope that this will buy off the commission.

妥協或許已在進行之中。不久前，波蘭改組了政府，撤換掉了一些布魯塞爾方面視爲“瘋子”的官員。在早先的會談中，波蘭政府與歐盟委員會都表現得彬彬有禮。在華沙，如今有傳言稱波蘭政府可能會做出一些表面上的讓步，希望這樣可以讓歐盟委員會買賬。

The EU, which already has its hands full with eurozone reform and Brexit, may be inclined to grab any olive branch that is offered by Poland. But that would be a mistake. The questions posed for the EU by Poland and Hungary are, ultimately, even more fundamental than the problem of Brexit. They challenge the EU’s very basis as a community of democratic, law-abiding nations. If the EU dodges the Polish issue now, it will come back to haunt it later.

已因歐元區改革和英國退歐而忙得不可開交的歐盟，可能傾向於抓住波蘭伸出的任何橄欖枝，但這將是錯誤之舉。從長遠來看，波蘭和匈牙利給歐盟帶來的問題，甚至比英國退歐的問題更爲根本。他們挑戰的是歐盟作爲一個民主、守法的國家共同體的根基。如果歐盟現在迴避波蘭問題，這一問題未來還會回來作祟。