柏林襲擊 難道是同情的代價?

A quote typical of Chancellor Angela Merkel, a physicist by education and politician by profession, goes like this: Don’t forget about the huge difference between expecting something and experiencing it.

曾受訓成爲物理學家、後來投身政壇的德國總理安格拉.默克爾(Angela Merkel)常說的一句話是：不要忘記預期將要發生什麼事情與真正經歷這件事情之間的巨大差異。

For years Germany’s security services have warned about the imminent threat of a terrorist attack.

多年來，德國的安保部門一直警告，德國面臨迫在眉睫的恐怖主義襲擊威脅。

They warned specifically about the danger of attacks on soft targets such as Christmas markets.

他們特別警告，聖誕集市等軟目標有遭受襲擊的危險。

So Germans were vaguely expecting a blow.

因此，德國人一直隱約預期會遭受一次打擊。

On Monday evening, right in the centre of Berlin, they experienced it.

週一晚上，在柏林市中心，他們真正經歷到了。

How will this affect them? What will this do to Ms Merkel, to the nation’s political landscape and to the cohesion of our society?

這會如何影響德國人？這會如何影響默克爾、影響德國的政治格局和我們社會的凝聚力？

Politically, the killing of 12 people in an attack that left dozens severely injured is a disaster for the government but it is even more so for Ms Merkel personally.

在政治上，一次導致12人喪生、數十人嚴重受傷的襲擊對德國政府而言是一場災難，但對默克爾個人而言更是如此。

She is held responsible for whatever goes wrong in the handling of the refugee crisis.

在難民危機的處理上無論出了什麼問題，人們都會認爲應由默克爾負責。

Her actions are polarising the country and society in a way we have not seen in decades.

她的行動以一種我們數十年未曾見過的方式讓這個國家和社會兩極分化。

Knowing this all too well, Marcus Pretzell, an MEP and one of the leading figures of the far-right xenophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD), did not bother to wait longer than an hour after the attack before announcing on Twitter: These are Merkel’s dead!

深知這一切的歐洲議會議員(MEP)、極右翼仇外政黨德國新選擇黨(AfD)的領軍人物之一馬庫斯.普雷策爾(Marcus Pretzell)在襲擊發生剛剛一個小時的時候，就在Twitter上宣佈：這些人都是默克爾害死的！

He caused immediate outrage across social media — not least because until late Tuesday it was not even clear whether the killer was a refugee at all — yet true AfD believers will praise Mr Pretzell for speaking out.

他的話立刻在社交媒體平臺上引起了憤慨之情——尤其是因爲，直到週二晚些時候，人們甚至還不清楚殺手是否是難民——然而，新選擇黨的真正信徒們會讚揚普雷策爾的直言不諱。

If the AfD party as a whole sticks to the same line then, yes, it might deter quite a number of decent middle-class voters.

如果新選擇黨作爲一個整體都堅持這一立場，可能讓相當多的體面的中產階級選民望而卻步。

On the other hand, it will strengthen the xenophobic, anti-Merkel core of that party, which will probably be big enough to carry the party over the 5 per cent threshold required for entry into the Bundestag in the federal election next autumn.

另一方面，這會壯大該黨內仇外、反默克爾的核心，很可能足以讓該黨超過5%的得票率門檻，在明年秋天聯邦選舉時得以進入德國聯邦議院(Bundestag)。

As well as introducing a far-right voice to the national parliament for the first time, that would complicate the business of crafting a work-able governing coalition.

除了首次讓極右翼的聲音進入國會以外，這還會讓組建一個可運轉的執政聯盟變得更加困難。

Public confidence in the chancellor was first shattered when authorities largely lost control of the influx of refugees in the summer of 2015.

2015年夏天，當局基本對難民流入失去控制，這令德國民衆對默克爾的信心首次破滅。

Ever since, there has been a clear correlation between her personal ratings and voters’ fear of terrorist attacks.

此後，默克爾個人的民意支持率一直與選民對恐怖主義襲擊的擔憂明顯相關。

Moreover, Ms Merkel’s campaign for the 2017 election is set to focus on two words aimed at providing comfort in times of turmoil: security and no experiments.

此外，默克爾爲2017年德國大選準備的競選綱領，將着重於兩個旨在於動盪時期提供一些慰藉的詞：安全和不做實驗。

This slogan was deployed successfully by her Christian Democrat (CDU) party during the cold war.

在冷戰期間，默克爾所在的基督教民主聯盟(CDU)曾成功地運用了這一口號。

As of today, both will be severely undermined by the Berlin attack — with no alternative at hand, either in terms of a viable candidate or in terms of strategy.

今天，這條口號和基民盟都將因此次的柏林襲擊遭受重創，而基民盟手中沒有備用選擇——無論是有勝選實力的備用候選人，還是備用策略。

The CDU knows this very well.

基民盟深知這一點。

But even her fiercest critics within the party will not dare to revolt.

但即使是默克爾在基民盟黨內最嚴厲的批評者，也不敢反叛。

With no viable way out, they have no choice but to suffer in silence.

沒有可行的出路，他們別無選擇，只能沉默忍受。

So all the chancellor can hope for is that mainstream Germans will do as they normally would: rally behind which ever government they have and remain as calm as they did, for instance, when they were struck in 2009 by the harshest economic downturn since the second world war.

因此，默克爾只能希望，主流德國人的表現能夠像往常一樣：支持正在臺上的任何政府，像過去歷次遭遇危機時（比如在2009年遭受自二戰以來最嚴重的經濟衰退時）一樣保持平靜。

There is one simple thing that determines what happens next for Germany and the chancellor: rationality.

決定德國和德國總理將會遭遇何種命運的是一件簡單的事：理性。

Will Germans muster enough of that to see that terrorist attacks will occur no matter how many refugees a country has taken in?

德國人還能有足夠的理性，想明白無論一個國家接收的難民是多是少，恐怖主義襲擊都是會發生的嗎？

Will they turn their backs on xenophobic anti-Muslim rhetoric, even though almost every recent attack in Europe has been launched by Muslim terrorists? And, ultimately, will a majority of Germans bravely accept the notion that nothing in the world, including compassion towards strangers, comes for free.

他們是否將拒絕仇外主義的反穆斯林論調——即便歐洲近來發生的幾乎每一起襲擊都是穆斯林恐怖主義者所爲？還有最後一條：大多數德國人是否能夠勇敢地接受這一觀念，即在這個世界上，沒有任何東西是免費的，包括對陌生人的同情。

No doubt Ms Merkel will give way to calls for tougher law and order policies.

毫無疑問，默克爾將向那些要求實施更嚴格的法律和秩序政策的呼聲讓步。

She will push for faster processing of asylum seekers and for more extraditions of those who are not acknowledged as refugees.

她將推動加快對尋求庇護者的處理過程，並遣送更多未被承認爲難民的人。

She will also allow her party to campaign on symbolic gestures such as banning burkas from the streets and other public places.

她還將允許她所在的黨在一些象徵性姿態方面造勢，比如禁止在街道和其他公共場所穿着burka罩袍。

This might help to calm parts of her own party.

這可能有助於讓她所在的黨內的一部分人冷靜下來。

But she knows very well that it will not turn the tide if there are further attacks like the one in Berlin.

但她深知，如果柏林襲擊這樣的事件再度發生，這些舉動將無力扭轉局勢。

At any rate, Ms Merkel will not quit her post.

無論如何，默克爾不會辭職。

She will stay in her job because she perceives stepping down as desertion.

她將繼續留在任上，因爲她認爲，下臺就是逃跑。

But any sort of guarantee against terrorist attacks is far beyond her reach.

但對恐怖主義襲擊做出任何形式的擔保，都遠遠超過她的能力。

It may yet turn out that the terrorist assault on Christmastime Berlin is the price of the German display of generosity so widely praised 18 months ago.

事實最終仍可能證明，對德國聖誕集市的恐怖襲擊，是德國人展現慷慨的代價，這種慷慨在18個月前曾受到世人如此普遍的稱讚。

To live with that frustrating idea will prove a test of Germany’s stiff upper lip — and the key to Ms Merkel’s political future.

接受這種令人沮喪的想法將被證明是對德國人沉着性格的考驗——以及默克爾政治前途的關鍵。