中國央行降息意在安撫股市與市場

China’s roller-coaster stocks will again be under the spotlight after the central bank cut benchmark interest rates to a record low at the weekend, a move interpreted by analysts as an attempt to temper last week’s market meltdown.

中國過山車般的股市將再度受到密切關注，因爲中國央行在剛剛過去的週末將基準利率降至歷史新低，此舉被分析師們解讀爲試圖緩和上週的市場大跌。

The Shanghai Composite sank 7.4 per cent on Friday, wiping hundreds of billions of dollars off the total market capitalisation of the index. The market has reversed 18.8 per cent from its June 12 high, although it is still up almost 30 per cent in the year to date.

上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)上週五下挫7.4%，抹去該指數成份股公司共計幾千億美元的市值。與6月12日達到的高點相比，上證綜指已下跌18.8%，但今年迄今仍上漲近30%。

The People’s Bank of China appeared to respond on Saturday, when it cut the one-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent — its fourth cut since November — and lowered the amount of reserves certain banks are required to hold by 50 basis points.

中國人民銀行(PBoC)上週六似乎是在對此採取對策，下調一年期貸款利率25個基點，至4.85%（這是自去年11月以來的第四次降息），同時針對某些銀行下調存款準備金率50個基點。

“In China, a rate cut or a cut in the reserve requirement ratio is about signalling,” says Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie. “The signal is mostly to boost confidence. When the PBOC cuts interest rates or RRR it suggests China is in an easing cycle, that is very important. It will inject a lot of confidence in the stock market”.

“在中國，降息或降準的意義在於發出信號，”麥格理(Macquarie)中國經濟研究主管胡偉俊(Larry Hu)表示。“這個信號主要是提振信心。中國央行削減利率或存款準備金率，說明中國處於寬鬆週期，這是非常重要的。它會給股市注入大量信心。”

China’s stock market is widely seen as driven by policy at least as much as company fundamentals. The perception that the latest rate cut is a hasty response to Friday’s correction risks undermining the credibility of previous official statements that the government should focus on structural reforms and avoid trying to influence the market.

中國股市被廣泛視爲受到政策推動，政策的重要性至少不遜於公司的基本面。人們現在的印象是，最新降息舉措是對上週五股市回落的倉促迴應。這種看法有可能削弱之前官方聲明的可信度；那些聲明稱，政府應當着眼於結構性改革，避免試圖影響市場。

The one-year deposit rate will similarly be lowered b 25 basis, to 2 per cent.

金融機構一年期存款利率同樣下調25個基點，至2%。

“This is the best time for them to cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratios,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities. “If they had not acted, on Monday there would have been real panic.”

“這是他們降息降準的最佳時機，”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)首席亞洲經濟學家沈建光表示。“如果他們不採取行動，週一就會出現真正的恐慌。”

More than two-thirds of the companies listed in Shanghai hit their daily downward limit of 10 per cent on Friday. Some of the biggest stocks saw billions of dollars knocked off their value, with China Life Insurance shedding 7.5 per cent, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen market dropped 7.9 per cent. Mr Shen added that real interest rates in China remained very high and investment continued to decline but the PBOC could not move before this because of the stock market bubble.

上週五在上海股市，逾三分之二股票跌停，即觸及10%的單日跌幅上限。一些最大的個股市值蒸發數十億美元，其中中國人壽(China Life Insurance)下跌7.5%，同時以科技股爲主的深圳股市下跌7.9%。沈建光補充說，中國的實際利率仍然很高，投資繼續下降，但央行此前由於股市泡沫而不能採取行動。

“The rate cut is a necessary step in the right direction,” said Wang Tao, China chief economist at UBS. “Real lending rates are still significantly higher than a year ago. High real rates [coupled with] a weak economy with deflationary pressures means a heavy debt service burden on the real economy, both the corporate sector and local governments.”

“此次降息是朝着正確方向邁出的必要步驟，”瑞銀(UBS)中國首席經濟學家汪濤表示。“實際貸款利率仍顯著高於一年前水平。偏高的實際利率（加上）存在通縮壓力的疲弱經濟意味着，實體經濟——無論是企業還是地方政府——揹負着沉重的償債負擔。”

Mr Shen said he expected the government also to continue tightening up on margin finance, which helped fuel the recent stock market rally. A week ago the regulator took fresh steps to tame the growth of margin lending, which some say contributed to last week’s market volatility.

瑞穗的沈建光表示，他預計政府還將繼續收緊股市的融資交易規定；此類操作幫助推動了近期股市漲勢。一週前，監管機構採取新措施遏制保證金貸款的增長；一些人表示，這些融資加劇了上週的市場波動。

Beijing has set a growth target of about 7 per cent for 2015, which would be the slowest annual expansion since 1990. However, policy makers want to avoid an abrupt slowdown that could cause unemployment to spike and trigger a wave of defaults.

北京方面已爲2015年設定7%左右的增長目標，這將是自1990年以來最慢的全年增速。不過，政策制定者希望避免突然的放緩，以免造成失業激增，同時引發一波違約潮。