烏克蘭只是普京一步棋

Europe thinks it has a Ukraine problem. In truth, it has a Russia, or more precisely, a Vladimir Putin problem. Moscow’s war against Kiev is a fragment of a bigger picture. The Russian president’s revanchism reaches well beyond Ukraine. The bigger goal is to tear up the continent’s post-communist settlement.

歐洲認爲，它的麻煩是烏克蘭，實際上，這個麻煩是俄羅斯，或者更準確地說，是俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)。莫斯科對基輔的戰爭是冰山一角。普京的復仇主義目標遠不止烏克蘭。他的更大目標是撕毀歐洲大陸共產主義時代結束後的安排。

European hesitation about confronting Russia is readily explained. Economic self-interest, history, cultural affinity, and latent anti-Americanism have persuaded many Europeans to look at Mr Putin as the leader they hoped for rather than the one who saw the fall of the Soviet Union as the geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.

歐洲不願與俄羅斯正面對抗的原因很好解釋。經濟上的利己主義、歷史、文化上的親緣性以及潛在的反美主義都讓許多歐洲人認爲，普京是他們所希望的領導人，而不是那個將蘇聯解體視爲20世紀地緣政治災難的領導人。

There is a seductive narrative for a west chastened by bungled interventions in the Middle East. If Mr Putin’s demands are sometimes provocative — and, as in Georgia as well as Ukraine, can turn into outright aggression — the west should be mindful of the circumstances. Perhaps Nato had indeed broken promises about admitting former Soviet satellites? Maybe it had bent the rules when it bombed Serbia? As for the Iraq war, well, enough said.

一個有誘惑性的說法是，西方由於搞砸了對中東地區的干預已經學乖了。如果說普京的要求有時是挑釁性的——而且正如格魯吉亞和烏克蘭的情形那樣，可能演變爲徹底的侵略——西方應該時刻牢記當前形勢。或許北約(Nato)真的放棄了接納前蘇聯衛星國的承諾？或許當北約轟炸塞爾維亞的時候，它就已經有所鬆動了？至於伊拉克戰爭，嗯，就不用多說了。

The annexation of Crimea and the march into Ukraine’s Donbass region should have dispelled the doubts. In the case of Angela Merkel this is what seems to have happened. Not a politician to prefer confrontation over negotiation, the German chancellor has been offered too many lies and broken promises.

俄羅斯吞併克里米亞以及進入烏克蘭頓巴斯地區後，人們應該不再懷疑了。就德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)而言，這些懷疑似乎已成現實。默克爾不是一位喜歡對抗勝過談判的政客，她遭遇了太多的謊言和失信。

The argument within Europe, though, has not ended. Much has been made of the sympathy towards Moscowshown by the Syriza government in Greece. It is not alone. Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi has been outdoing Silvio Berlusconi in his fealty to Mr Putin. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán publicly disdains liberal democracy. Cyprus always speaks up for Russia, while French consent to the sanctions regime is halfhearted. So no one should be surprised by the latest Russian offensive: there is no more powerful a provocation to the Kremlin than appeasement.

然而，歐洲內部的爭論沒有結束。衆所周知，希臘激進左翼聯盟黨(Syriza)領導的政府對莫斯科深表同情。這並非個例。在對普京忠誠方面，意大利總理馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)一直勝過西爾維奧•貝盧斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)。匈牙利總理歐爾班•維克托(Viktor Orbán)公開鄙視自由民主。塞浦路斯總是維護俄羅斯，而法國對制裁俄羅斯只是半心半意地贊同。因此，應該沒有人對俄羅斯最新的進攻感到意外：對克里姆林宮來說，沒有比綏靖政策更大的挑釁了。

Mr Putin’s litany of grievances — Nato’s “encirclement” of Russia, a plan to humiliate Moscow, broken international rules — have been heard over and over. Occasionally there is a small truth hidden in the big lie, but the essential storyline never deviates. The west wants to destroy the power and dignity of Russia. So familiar are the charges that the implications are often discounted. Everyone has heard Mr Putin pledge to roll back the frontiers, but few have really been listening.

人們不斷地聽到普京的一連串抱怨：北約“包圍”俄羅斯、計劃羞辱莫斯科、違反國際規則。彌天大謊中偶爾也會隱藏着些許真相，但基本的故事情節永遠差不了多少。西方希望破壞俄羅斯的實力和尊嚴。這些指控已是家常便飯，其影響往往大打折扣。所有人都聽到普京承諾收縮疆界，但很少有人真的把他的話當回事。

The annexation of Crimea and the push into eastern Ukraine were in one dimension opportunistic. Mr Putin had misread the Maidan protests and failed to anticipate the fall of former president Viktor Yanukovich. So he grabbed what he could. Expedient as the war may have been, it fitted the game plan to restore suzerainty over much of the former Soviet empire.

從某個方面來說，俄羅斯吞併克里米亞和進入烏克蘭東部有些機會主義。普京誤讀了獨立廣場的抗議活動，未能預見到烏克蘭前總統維克多•亞努科維奇(Viktor Yanukovich)的垮臺。因此他抓住了他能抓住的機會。雖然戰爭可能是權宜之計，但它符合俄羅斯對前蘇聯帝國的許多加盟共和國恢復宗主國地位的通盤計劃。

General Yury Baluyevsky, the former chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, says the confrontation with the west is a continuation of the cold war. The methods, though, are now more sophisticated. Military force, he says, is “the final stage of the process”. Moscow has mastered the art of hybrid warfare, including “information and psychological pressure”. To paraphrase the general, Mr Putin will divide and weaken his enemies before deploying force.

俄軍前總參謀長尤里•巴盧耶夫斯基將軍(General Yuri Baluyevsky)表示，與西方對峙是冷戰的延續。然而，現在的對峙方式更加複雜。巴盧耶夫斯基將軍說，軍事力量是“這一過程的最後階段”。莫斯科掌握了混合戰爭的藝術，包括運用“信息和心理壓力”。用巴盧耶夫斯基將軍的話來說，普京將會在動用武力之前分化削弱其敵人。

In its softest form, this means presenting rolling propaganda as rolling news with the rapid expansion of the Kremlin-controlled Russia Today news network. Then there is the funding of populist parties of left and right in western European capitals. Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France has taken a Russian loan. Nigel Farage, the leader of the anti-immigrant UK Independence party, counts himself an admirer of the Russian leader.

其最溫和的鬥爭方式，就是藉助俄羅斯政府控制的“今日俄羅斯”(Russia Today)新聞網絡的快速擴張，不斷地以滾動新聞的形式滾動宣傳。然後是向西歐國家的左右翼民粹主義政黨提供資金。法國馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)領導的國民陣線(National Front)已經接受了俄羅斯的貸款。反對移民的英國獨立黨(UK Independence party)的領導人奈傑爾•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)自稱是普京的仰慕者。

Further along the spectrum there are the bribes paid to politicians and business leaders and the stakes taken in vulnerable financial institutions in south eastern Europe and the Balkans. There is a none-too-subtle campaign to destabilise pro-western governments in the former Soviet space — Bulgaria is a recent victim — by exploiting their dependence on Russian energy. Add in the testing of Nato defences by Russian fighter planes, cyber attacks and kidnappings in the Baltics, and the incursions of nuclear bombers, and you can see what the general was talking about.

再接下來是賄賂政客和商界領導人，以及收購東南歐國家和巴爾幹地區的脆弱金融機構的權益。俄羅斯利用前蘇聯勢力範圍內親西方國家對其能源的依賴，毫不掩飾地發動破壞這些國家政府穩定的攻勢——保加利亞就是最近的一個受害者。再加上俄羅斯戰機、網絡襲擊和巴爾幹地區綁架事件對北約防務的考驗，以及攜帶核彈頭的轟炸機的入侵，你就可以明白巴盧耶夫斯基將軍在說什麼。

Ms Merkel has recognised the danger, publicly warning about subversion in Moldova and attempts to pull Serbia back into the Russian orbit. The US has been working with the European Commission to ease some of the vulnerabilities of energy-dependent governments in southeastern Europe. But in western Europe there is widespread reluctance still to recognise the big picture — to set the Ukraine crisis in the context of Mr Putin’s broader aims.

默克爾意識到了這種威脅，對摩爾多瓦境內的顛覆活動和俄羅斯將塞爾維亞拉回自身軌道的企圖進行了公開警告。美國一直在與歐盟委員會(European Commission)合作，以減輕有能源依賴性的東南歐國家的部分脆弱性。但在西歐，人們仍普遍不願承認這種大局，不願從普京更大範圍企圖的角度看待烏克蘭危機。

Mr Putin is not the creation of western perfidy. Throughout his career, from the office of the mayor of St Petersburg to the top job in the Kremlin, he has been remarkably constant in his ambitions and in the ruthlessness he will deploy to achieve them.

普京並非是西方背信棄義的產物。在從擔任聖彼得堡市副市長、到入主克里姆林宮的整個政治生涯中，普京的抱負及實現抱負過程中的冷酷無情沒有變過。

A collapsing oil price and the impact of sanctions have made him more dangerous: without oil and gas revenues, his domestic support now rests on his capacity to mobilise nationalist anger against the alleged attempt by Nato and the EU to subjugate “mother Russia”. The west’s options are limited, but the beginning of wisdom is to understand that this is not just about Ukraine.

油價暴跌和制裁的影響讓普京變得更加危險：沒有了石油和天然氣收入，現在普京在國內能否獲得支持，取決於他能否挑起民族主義者的怒火，對抗所謂的北約和歐盟要征服“俄羅斯母親”的企圖。西方的選擇是有限的，但要想明智行事，最起碼要明白這不僅僅與烏克蘭有關。