機器人搶人類飯碗 這一次可能是真的

A machine that administers sedatives recently began treating patients at a Seattle hospital. At a Silicon Valley hotel, a bellhop robot delivers items to people’s rooms. Last spring, a software algorithm wrote a breaking news article about an earthquake that The Los Angeles Times published.

在西雅圖的一家醫院，一臺給病人服用鎮定劑的機器不久前開始接待患者。在硅谷的一家酒店，一個機器人侍應生把行李送到客人的房間。今年春天，一個軟件算法編寫了一條關於地震的突發新聞稿，並發表在了《洛杉磯時報》(The Los Angeles Times)上。

Although fears that technology will displace jobs are at least as old as the Luddites, there are signs that this time may really be different. The technological breakthroughs of recent years – allowing machines to mimic the human mind – are enabling machines to do knowledge jobs and service jobs, in addition to factory and clerical work.

儘管對於科技可能取代就業崗位的擔憂，至少和勒徳分子(Luddites)的出現一樣久遠，但是如今的一些跡象顯示，這一次可能真的與以往不同。最近幾年的科技突破，使機器逐漸能夠模仿人類思維，於是讓機器有能力從事知識工作和服務工作，而不只是工廠和事務性的工作。

And over the same 15-year period that digital technology has inserted itself into nearly every aspect of life, the job market has fallen into a long malaise. Even with the economy’s recent improvement, the share of working-age adults who are working is substantially lower than a decade ago – and lower than any point in the 1990s.

正是在這15年間，數字技術幾乎進入了生活的方方面面，就業市場也陷入了長期的病態。儘管經濟最近有所改善，但是勞動年齡人口中，實際就業的比例遠低於10年前，甚至低於上世紀90年代的任何時期。

Economists long argued that, just as buggy-makers gave way to car factories, technology would create as many jobs as it destroyed. Now many are not so sure.

經濟學家長期以來一直在說，就像製造馬車的工匠要讓位於汽車工廠一樣，科技創造的工作崗位將和它取代的工作崗位一樣多。現在，許多人不那麼確定了。

Lawrence H. Summers, the former Treasury secretary, recently said that he no longer believed that automation would always create new jobs. “This isn’t some hypothetical future possibility,” he said. “This is something that’s emerging before us right now.”

美國前財政部長勞倫斯·H·薩默斯(Lawrence H. Summers)最近表示，他不再相信自動化總是能夠創造新的工作崗位。“這不是假設出來的未來的某種可能性，”他說，“而是正在我們眼前呈現的現實。”

Erik Brynjolfsson, an economist at M.I.T., said, “This is the biggest challenge of our society for the next decade.”

麻省理工學院(MIT)的經濟學家埃裏克·布林約爾鬆(Erik Brynjolfsson)說，“這是我們的社會在未來10年裏最大的挑戰。”

Mr. Brynjolfsson and other experts believe that society has a chance to meet the challenge in ways that will allow technology to be mostly a positive force. In addition to making some jobs obsolete, new technologies have also long complemented people’s skills and enabled them to be more productive – as the Internet and word processing have for office workers or robotic surgery has for surgeons.

布林約爾鬆和其他一些專家認爲，社會可以通過一些方式，讓技術成爲一種基本上積極的力量，從而應對上述挑戰。雖然淘汰了一些工作崗位，但是新的科技也對人類的技能提供了補充，提高了人們的工作效率——就像互聯網和文字處理技術對辦公室職員，或者機器手術技術對外科醫生所做的那樣。

More productive workers, in turn, earn more money and produce goods and services that improve lives. “It is literally the story of the economic development of the world over the last 200 years,” said Marc Andreessen, a venture capitalist and an inventor of the web browser. “Just as most of us today have jobs that weren’t even invented 100 years ago, the same will be true 100 years from now.”

反過來，工作效率得到提升的勞動者可以賺更多錢，生產出可以改善生活的商品和服務。“這實際上就是過去200年裏，世界經濟發展的歷程，”網絡瀏覽器的發明人、風險投資人馬克·安德雷森(Marc Andreessen)說，“就像今天我們大多數人都從事着100年前不存在的工作一樣，100年後也會是如此。”

Yet there is deep uncertainty about how the pattern will play out now, as two trends are interacting. Artificial intelligence has become vastly more sophisticated in a short time, with machines now able to learn, not just follow programmed instructions, and to respond to human language and movement.

然而，由於兩種趨勢的相互影響，未來將如何發展還有很大的不確定性。人工智能在很短時間內變得複雜得多，機器現在能夠學習新知識，而不只是完成程序中的指令，還能對人類的語言和動作做出反應。

At the same time, the American work force has gained skills at a slower rate than in the past – and at a slower rate than in many other countries. Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 are among the most skilled in the world, according to a recent report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Younger Americans are closer to average among the residents of rich countries, and below average by some measures.

與此同時，美國勞動者習得新技能的速度卻不如以往，而且低於許多其他國家。經濟合作與發展組織(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)最近的一份報告顯示，55到64歲的美國人是世界上技能最強的勞動者。而年齡更小的美國人，則更接近富裕國家居民的平均水平，某些指標甚至低於平均水平。

Clearly, many workers feel threatened by technology. In a recent New York Times/CBS News/Kaiser Family Foundation poll of Americans between the ages of 25 and 54 who were not working, 37 percent of those who said they wanted a job said technology was a reason they did not have one. Even more – 46 percent – cited “lack of education or skills necessary for the jobs available.”

顯然，許多工人感到了科技的威脅。在《紐約時報》、CBS新聞頻道(CBS News)和凱澤家族基金會(Kaiser Family Foundation)最近對25歲到54歲年齡段的無業美國人進行的調查中，有求職意願的受訪者裏有37%說，科技是他們找不到工作的原因之一。更多人(46%)則表示，原因在於“缺乏空缺崗位所需的教育背景或職業技能”。

Self-driving vehicles are an example of the crosscurrents. They could put truck and taxi drivers out of work – or they could enable drivers to be more productive during the time they used to spend driving, which could earn them more money. But for the happier outcome to happen, the drivers would need the skills to do new types of jobs.

自動駕駛汽車的例子就突顯了這兩種趨勢的矛盾。它們可能導致卡車和出租車司機失業——或者，它們可能會使司機在本來需要開車的時間裏更有效率，賺更多的錢。但要想實現較好的這個結果，司機就需要具備從事新型工作的技能。

The challenge is evident for white-collar jobs, too. Ad sales agents and pilots are two jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects will decline in number over the next decade. Flying a plane is largely automated today and will become more so. And at Google, the biggest seller of online ads, software does much of the selling and placing of search ads, meaning there is much less need for salespeople.

白領工作面臨的挑戰也同樣明顯。美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)預計，廣告銷售人員和飛行員的工作機會未來10年將會減少。如今，駕駛飛機基本上已經實現自動化，未來更是如此。在最大的在線廣告銷售商谷歌公司(Google)，銷售和投放搜索廣告的工作，有很大一部分是由軟件完成的，這意味着對銷售人員的需求會大大減少。

There are certain human skills machines will probably never replicate, like common sense, adaptability and creativity, said David Autor, an economist at M.I.T. Even jobs that become automated often require human involvement, like doctors on standby to assist the automated anesthesiologist, called Sedasys.

人類的某些技能機器或許永遠無法複製，比如常識、適應性和創造力，MIT的經濟學家戴維·奧特(David Autor)說。即使是實現了自動化的工作崗位，常常也需要人工的參與，比如，自動化麻醉設備Sedasys旁邊，就需要有醫生值守協助操作。

Elsewhere, though, machines are replacing certain jobs. Telemarketers are among those most at risk, according to a recent study by Oxford University professors. They identified recreational therapists as the least endangered – and yet that judgment may prove premature. Already, Microsoft’s Kinect can recognize a person’s movements and correct them while doing exercise or physical therapy.

不過，在其他領域，機器正在取代某些工作崗位。牛津大學(Oxford University)幾名教授最近的一項研究顯示，被取代的風險最高的一些職業中就包括電話推銷員。他們認爲休閒理療師是最安全的工作崗位，不過這個結論可能下得爲時過早。微軟(Microsoft)的Kinect已經能夠識別人在進行體育鍛煉或理療時的動作，並給予糾正了。

Other fields could follow. The inventors of facial recognition software from a University of California, San Diego, lab say it can estimate pain levels from children’s expressions and screen people for depression. Machines are even learning to taste: The Thai government in September introduced a robot that determines whether Thai food tastes sufficiently authentic or whether it needs another squirt of fish sauce.

其他領域可能也會出現同樣的情況。加州大學聖迭戈分校(University of California, San Diego)一個實驗室的面部識別軟件的發明者說，該軟件可以評估兒童表情的痛苦程度，也可以篩查人是否抑鬱。機器甚至還在學習品嚐味道：9月份，泰國政府引進了一臺機器人，它能判斷一道泰國菜夠不夠正宗，或者是否需要再加點魚露。

Watson, the computer system built by IBM that beat humans at Jeopardy in 2011, has since learned to do other human tasks. This year, it began advising military veterans on complex life decisions like where to live and which insurance to buy. Watson culls through documents for scientists and lawyers and creates new recipes for chefs. Now IBM is trying to teach Watson emotional intelligence.

2011年，IBM打造的計算機系統沃森(Watson)在《危險邊緣》(Jeopardy)裏打敗了人類，之後它又學會了其他人類的工作。今年，它開始針對一些複雜的人生抉擇，爲退伍老兵提供建議，比如在哪裏生活，買什麼保險。沃森還能爲科學家和律師篩選文件，爲廚師發明新菜譜。現在，IBM正在努力讓沃森獲得情商。

Perhaps the most worrisome development is how poorly the job market is already functioning for many workers. More than 16 percent of men between the ages of 25 and 54 are not working, up from 5 percent in the late 1960s; 30 percent of women in this age group are not working, up from 25 percent in the late 1990s. For those who are working, wage growth has been weak, while corporate profits have surged.

也許最令人憂慮的情況是，對於許多勞動者來說，就業市場的狀況已經十分糟糕。在25歲到54歲年齡段的男性中，超過16%的人沒有工作，而上世紀60年代末，這個比例是5%；這個年齡段的女性30%沒有工作，高於上世紀90年代末期的25%。對於有工作的人，薪資增長一直乏力，而與此同時，企業利潤卻大幅增長。

“We’re going to enter a world in which there’s more wealth and less need to work,” Mr. Brynjolfsson said. “That should be good news. But if we just put it on autopilot, there’s no guarantee this will work out.”

“我們將迎來一個財富更多、工作需求更少的世界，”布林約爾鬆說。“這應該是個好消息。但如果我們任其自由發展，不能保證所有問題都會迎刃而解。”

Some say the nature of work will need to change. Google’s co-founder, Larry Page, recently suggested a four-day workweek, so as technology displaces jobs, more people can find employment. Others believe the role of the public sector should expand, to help those struggling to find work. Many point to education, in new technologies and in the skills that remain uniquely human, like creativity and judgment.

有人說，工作的本質需要改變。谷歌的聯合創始人拉里·佩奇(Larry Page)最近建議每週工作四天，這樣一來，在技術取代工作崗位的同時，更多人仍然可以找到工作。還有一些人認爲，公共部門應該發揮更大的作用，來幫助那些難以找到工作的人。許多人說，應該加強涉及新技術以及人類獨有技能的教育，比如創造力和判斷力。

“The answer is surely not to try to stop technical change,” Mr. Summers said, “but the answer is not to just suppose that everything’s going to be O.K. because the magic of the market will assure that’s true.”

“解決辦法當然不是試圖阻止科技的變革，”薩默斯說，“但答案也不是想當然地認爲，因爲有市場的魔力，所以一切問題都會自然而然地迎刃而解。”