黃金時代結束 在華外企該怎麼辦

Multinational executives are slowly drifting back to Beijing from their summer holidays abroad. Their mood is generally glum — and not just because of the pollution that has blighted China’s capital over recent months, after what had been a glorious spring.

在北京，前往國外度暑假的跨國公司高管正陸續返回。他們大都心情鬱悶，不僅僅是因爲近幾個月一直困擾中國首都的污染問題——在過了一個明媚的春天之後。

As one recent returnee said last week, it felt “tragic” watching his three daughters’ tans and sun-bleached hair fade as they were forced to play indoors day after day.

正如近期歸來的一名高管上週所言，眼看着自己三個女兒因爲只能成天在室內活動，度假時曬得黝黑的皮膚逐漸褪色，原本變淡了的髮色失去光澤，感覺很“可悲”。

Pestered by exasperated spouses and cabin-fevered children, multinational executives will unfortunately find little escape at the office. There, they are under increasing pressure to squeeze more profits from an economy growing at its slowest annual rate in a quarter-century.

不幸的是，這些被心煩的配偶和憋在屋內的孩子纏身的跨國公司高管也無法享受辦公室的寧靜。在這裏，要設法從增速爲四分之一個世紀以來最慢的經濟中獲得更多利潤，他們身負的壓力越來越大。

Whether they are selling fast-moving consumer goods or premium cars, companies used to double-digit revenue and profit growth in China are suddenly reporting year-on-year increases in the mid to low single digits — if not worse.

不論是銷售快速消費品還是高檔汽車，已經習慣於在華收入和利潤兩位數增長的跨國公司，突然間年增長率降到了個位數的中低區間——如果不是更糟的話。

“For foreign companies that depend on China, 3 per cent sales growth just doesn’t cut it,” says Andrew Polk, Beijing-based economist for the Conference Board.

世界大型企業聯合會(Conference Board)駐北京經濟學家安德魯波爾克(Andrew Polk)說：“對於依賴中國的外企來說，3%的銷售增長是根本不夠的。”

Early next month, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China will release its annual white paper on business conditions. It was the first organisation to frame the zeitgeist last year, when its president proclaimed the end of what had been a “golden age” for foreign investors.

下月初，中國歐盟商會(European Union Chamber of Commerce in China)將發佈關於中國商業環境的年度白皮書。歐盟商會主席去年就曾宣告，外國投資者在中國的“黃金時代”結束了，使該商會成爲首個表達此類觀點的組織。

In their briefings, both the European chamber and its US counterpart now tend to accentuate the negative in China, ruing everything from persistent market barriers to heavy handed anti-monopoly investigations.

在它們發佈的簡報中，歐盟商會和美國商會如今都傾向於強調中國的所有負面因素——從頑固的市場壁壘，到嚴厲的反壟斷調查。

Some even believe the Chinese government’s unprecedented anti-corruption campaign — and the sobering example of GlaxoSmithKline, the UK pharmaceutical company brought low by a corruption scandal at its China operations — have failed to put an end to corporate graft.

有人甚至認爲，中國政府空前的反腐運動——以及英國製藥公司葛蘭素史克(GlaxoSmithKline)因在華業務腐敗醜聞而遭受打擊的令人警醒的案例——並未能剎住企業貪腐風氣。

“Little has really changed,” said two corruption experts, Nick Blank and Frank Hong, in a recent report based on interviews with security managers at multinationals. “In the past, employees would skim expense accounts in order to get cash for bribery payments...琠梔攀猀攀 days they are still skimming but keeping the cash for themselves.”

“幾乎沒有發生什麼真正的改變，”研究腐敗問題的專家尼克布蘭克(Nick Blank)和Frank Hong在最近一份根據採訪跨國公司經理結果撰寫的報告中說。“過去，員工會虛報費用，以便拿到現金用於賄賂……如今，他們仍然會虛報，只是自己留下了那些現金。”

Amid such gloom, however, there is a more optimistic case to be made for China’s corporate prospects. It is one that rests principally on the entrepreneurial dynamism of the country’s private sector companies.

然而，在這種悲觀氣氛中，有一個理由讓人對中國的企業前景感到樂觀——主要基於中國私營部門企業的創業活力。

One case in point is Fincera, a Chinese transportation services company based in Shijiazhuang, the drab capital of an equally unglamorous province, Hebei.

位於石家莊的中國運輸服務企業開元金融(Fincera)就是一個很好的例子。灰濛濛的石家莊是同樣乏味的河北省的省會。

Founded in 1994, Fincera grew into a nationwide truck leasing company — a business that feels the effects of economic slowdowns sooner than most. It also faced intense competition from thousands of local “mom-and-pop” leasers, many of them essentially family operations with better connections to area drivers and very low cost bases. It was a situation not unlike that encountered by multinationals that compete against large state-owned groups.

成立於1994年的開元金融已經發展爲一家全國性的卡車租賃公司——這一行比多數其他行業更早地感受到了經濟放緩的影響。該公司也面臨着來自當地數千家從事相同租賃業務的“夫妻店”的激烈競爭，後者中許多實際上是家庭經營，與區域司機關係更好，成本很低。這樣的處境與跨國公司有些相似，後者需要與大型國有集團競爭。

But, as Fincera watched its margins erode, its management team had an epiphany. As a relatively large business with 550 locations and annual revenues of Rmb1.4bn ($220m), the company had access to something its truck driver clients and mom-and-pop rivals did not: state bank loans. Fincera reckoned it could make more money developing web-based financing platforms for such clients.

但是，隨着利潤被侵蝕，開元金融的管理團隊早已醒悟。作爲一家規模較大、擁有550個營業網點、年收入14億元人民幣（約合2.2億美元）的企業，開元金融擁有其卡車司機客戶和小型家庭競爭對手並不具備的一個優勢——它能夠獲得國有銀行貸款。開元金融認爲，面向此類客戶開發基於網絡的融資平臺，它可以賺更多的錢。

Fincera’s reincarnation is just beginning and, even if successful, one company does not an economic revival make. But it offers two heartening lessons for multinationals.

開元金融的轉型纔剛剛開始，即使成功了，一家公司也無法讓經濟復甦。但它爲跨國公司帶來了兩點鼓舞人心的啓示。

First, there is a plethora of such market gaps in China. For example, the country has a private jet sector that has not even begun to take off. Multinational car companies are also exploring opportunities in a similarly under-developed automotive leasing industry.

首先，在中國存在大量此類“市場空白”。例如，中國的私人飛機行業甚至還未開始起飛。在同樣沒有得到充分發展的汽車租賃業，有些跨國公司正在探索機會。

Second, even when multinationals cannot rush into such vacuums themselves, many are being tapped by dynamic private companies.

第二，在跨國公司不能涌入這些真空領域時，富有活力的私營企業正進入其中一些領域挖掘潛力。

Multinational executives should also remember that Beijing will soon implement pollution controls ahead of the upcoming world athletics championships and military parade for the 70th anniversary of Japan’s second world war surrender. So there is still a chance their children may briefly recapture that healthy summer glow.

跨國公司高管也應該記住，在即將舉行的世界田徑錦標賽以及紀念日本二戰投降70週年大閱兵到來之前，北京很快將實施污染控制措施。因此，他們的孩子仍有機會短暫地恢復夏日的健康活力。