替大媽揪心 金價終於要反彈了嗎

The shiny metal, which for centuries was the basis of the global monetary system, is beloved particularly by investors whose political beliefs tilt libertarian. These are the sort of people who are convinced of the incompetence of political leaders and central banks that now run a monetary system based on floating exchange rates rather than the value of hard metals.

數百年來，黃金曾經一度作爲全球貨幣體系的基礎，政治上傾向自由派的投資者尤其青睞它。在此類人士看來，許多政府領導人和央行都是不稱職的，他們如今把貨幣體系的基礎建立在了浮動匯率制而非硬金屬的價值之上。

Gold enthusiasts had their moment in the sun during the 2000s, when the combination of rising deficits and a sharply falling dollar helped give the precious metal its best stretch since the inflation-racked 1970s and 1980s. The financial crisis only increased gold’s appeal, when it seemed like governments around the globe might not be able to save their banking systems from total collapse. A few years later, the European debt crisis added even more weight to the notion that the price of gold could only go in one direction: up.

黃金狂熱者在本世紀頭10年可謂春風得意，當時，赤字上升加之美元大幅貶值，黃金迎來了自通脹嚴重的上世紀七八十年代以來的最好時期。金融危機進一步增加了黃金的吸引力，當時，全球政府看似都無力阻止銀行系統徹底崩潰。幾年後，歐債危機進一步強化了這一觀點，即黃金價格只可能繼續上漲。

Since gold’s peek in the fall of 2011, though, it’s been in a free-fall, confounding the gold-bug community.

然而，令金本位者困惑不解的是，金價於2011年秋季達到峯值後，就一路下跌到現在。

Bianco also points out that money managers overall have not been as down on gold in the past 10 years than they are today, as measured by net long positions in the metal. When the rest of the crowd doubts an investment, it’s often the smartest time to buy.

比安科還指出，就黃金的淨多頭倉位來看，基金經理們如今紛紛對黃金看跌，其悲觀程度爲過去10年所未見。而當其它人都懷疑一項投資時，往往是買入的大好時機。

For the average investor, it makes sense to steer clear of large investments in gold. The precious metal isn’t going to replace the fiat monetary system anytime soon, nor does it look like the wave of government defaults and hyperinflation that gold bugs were calling for in the months immediately following the financial crisis and European debt crisis will be upon us any time soon.

對普通投資者而言，要避免大舉投資黃金。短期內，黃金不會取代法定貨幣體系，在金融危機和歐洲債務危機爆發後，金本位者曾聲稱將出現大量政府違約以及惡性通貨膨脹，但如今看來，上述情況短期內也不會發生。

But gold will bottom out at some point, be it at $1,100 per ounce or $500 per ounce. And the savvy—or just plain lucky—professional investor who picks the bottom accurately, and at the right time, will stand to clean up on this trade.

不過，金價總有一天會觸底，不論最低價是每盎司1100美元還是每盎司500美元。而精明——或走運——的專業投資者，將適時抄底，從中大賺一筆。