美國將啓動最寬鬆的收緊政策

The coming turn in US interest rates may be the most telegraphed in many cycles. Yet for all Janet Yellen’s strivings at clarity, the US outlook remains clouded by poor visibility. Last week Ms Yellen said the Federal Reserve was still likely to raise interest rates this year — possibly in September — in spite of the sharp slowdown in first-quarter US growth. For one reason or another, including a series of harsh winters, growth in the first three months of the year has tended to underperform the rest of it, often heavily so. The US economy shrank by an annualised 2.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 only to rebound in the next three. Hopefully this year’s anaemic 0.2 per cent first quarter expansion will be equally misleading.

美國利率即將到來的轉向或許將是多個利率週期以來媒體報道最多的一次。然而，儘管美聯儲(Fed)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)極力保持透明，美國的利率前景依然疑雲密佈、難以看清。耶倫上週表示，儘管今年首季度美國經濟增長大幅放緩，美聯儲仍有較大可能在今年加息——可能會在9月份。由於種種原因，其中包括連續幾年都遭遇嚴冬，一年中頭三個月的經濟表現往往弱於、而且是遠弱於餘下幾個月。2014年首季度美國經濟以年率計萎縮了2.9%，結果在接下來3個季度裏實現了反彈。運氣好的話，今年首季度堪稱疲弱的0.2%的增長率有望和2014年首季度一樣具有誤導性。

It would, however, be rash to make assumptions. It is quite possible 2015 will end as it began with US interest rates still on zero. As Ms Yellen put it: “Based on many years of making economic projections, I can assure you that any specific projection I write down will turn out to be wrong, perhaps markedly so.”

但現在就做出假設的話，恐怕過於輕率。很有可能到2015年結束的時候，美國的利率仍和年初一樣爲零。就如耶倫所說：“根據多年從事經濟預測的經驗，我可以向你們保證，我寫下的任何具體預測都會被證明是錯誤的，或許還錯得很離譜。”

Of course, there is a chance her expectations will be wrong on the upside. The Fed is forecasting US growth of 2.5 per cent for the next two years, which is only marginally above the tepid rates achieved since the start of the recovery, which is now about to enter its seventh year. Should unemployment fall to 5 per cent by the end of 2015, wage growth may finally start to pick up, in which case the Fed will probably need to remove the punch bowl. The balance of risk is skewed the other way, however. After years of virtually no income growth, Main Street is unprepared for positive shocks. It is, for instance, striking that that the US consumer has opted to pocket the recent gains from lower petrol prices rather than boost spending. The same applies to corporate investment, which remains disappointingly weak. The US economy’s key growth drivers each seem to be waiting for the other to move first. Investors are reluctant to invest and consumers are hesitant to spend. What will it take to stoke their animal spirits?

誠然，耶倫有可能低估了美國經濟的上行力度。美聯儲目前對未來兩年美國經濟增長率的預測爲2.5%，僅略高於復甦開始以來取得的不溫不火的增長率，而復甦已即將步入第7個年頭。如果到2015年末時失業率降至5%，我們可能會終於迎來薪資增長率的上揚，果真如此的話，美聯儲很可能需要取消刺激。然而，風險的天平正向另一端傾斜。在多年來收入增長基本爲零的情況下，美國普通民衆並沒有做好應對正面衝擊的準備。比如，人們驚訝地看到，美國消費者選擇將近期油價走低給他們帶來的收益放入囊中、而不是用來擴大支出。美國企業的投資狀況也同樣如此，依然低迷得令人失望。美國經濟的每一個關鍵增長引擎似乎都在等待別的引擎率先發力。投資者不願投資，消費者也不願消費。需要什麼才能激起他們的動物精神呢？

Ms Yellen’s candour on the limits of what monetary policy can do is also striking. The Fed has kept its pedal to the floor for seven straight years. Yet US growth since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 has consistently undershot previous recoveries. According to HSBC, average US growth in the seven years from the previous peak was 3.5 per cent after 1981, 3.1 per cent after 1990, 2.1 per cent after 2000 and 1.1 per cent since 2007.

耶倫對貨幣政策效果侷限性的直言不諱同樣令人驚訝。美聯儲已連續7年在“踩地板油”。不過，自雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers) 2008年破產以來，美國的增長率始終低於之前的數次復甦。匯豐(HSBC)數據顯示，1981年增長率見頂後的7年裏，美國的平均增長率爲3.5%；1990年後的7年裏爲3.1%，2000年後的7年裏爲2.1%，而2007年以來的平均增長率爲1.1%。