中國將以積極經濟政策應對增長放緩

China’s economic planners pledged to adopt more “proactive” and “flexible” fiscal and monetary policies in the new year, the official Xinhua news agency reported yesterday, as the country looks poised to post its slowest annual economic growth rate in 25 years.

據官方的新華社昨日報道，中國經濟規劃者承諾在新的一年裏採取更加“積極”和“靈活”的財政和貨幣政策。中國看來將取得25年來最慢的年度經濟增長率。

The government will embrace more “accommodative” fiscal and monetary policies, said a policy official familiar with the planning, while reducing surplus production capacity, lowering costs for businesses and selling off stockpiles of properties and industrial goods.

一名熟悉規劃事務的政策官員表示，政府將實行更加“寬鬆”的財政和貨幣政策，同時減少剩餘產能，爲企業降低成本，出售積壓的房地產和工業產品庫存。

“There will be fiscal policy to expand government spending and increase the government’s deficit,” the official said, adding that the economy “will follow an L-shaped path; it won’t be V-shaped”.

“將會有擴大政府開支和增加政府財政赤字的財政政策，”這位官員表示。他補充說，經濟“保持‘L’型態勢；不會是V型”。

China has struggled to reach its GDP growth target of “around 7 per cent” and recently said that it expected average annual growth to slip to 6.5 per cent over the next five years.

中國今年竭力要實現“7%左右”的國內生產總值(GDP)增長目標，官方最近表示，預計未來五年年均增長率將下滑至6.5%。

In a statement at the end of Beijing’s annual Central Economic Work Conference, the government said that “China’s current proactive fiscal policy needs to be more forceful, and the fiscal deficit ratio needs to be raised gradually.”

政府在一年一度的中央經濟工作會議在北京結束後發表聲明稱：“積極的財政政策需要更加有力，財政赤字需要逐步提高。”

However, the planning, which focused on “supply side” reforms, may be met with scepticism by foreign investors who have complained that bold reforms promised two years ago have yet to materialise.

然而，以“供應側”改革爲焦點的規劃，可能受到外國投資者的質疑，他們抱怨稱，兩年前承諾的大膽改革至今未能兌現。

While China’s overall debt-to-GDP level has soared past 250 per cent in recent years, largely due to excessive leverage in the corporate sector, the central government and local administrations can increase their borrowing to support the economy.

雖然中國的總債務與GDP之比近年飆升至250%以上（主要是由於企業部門的槓桿率過高），但中央和地方政府可以增加借款以支持經濟。

After the financial crisis, local governments borrowed through specially created finance vehicles that invested heavily in infrastructure and property.

前些年金融危機爆發後，地方政府通過專門設立的融資工具借款，然後大舉投資於基礎設施和房地產。

“The [central government] will have larger fiscal deficits and allow local governments to issue more bonds,” said Chen Long, China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. “Meanwhile, local government finance vehicles will be allowed to borrow at full speed.”

“（中央政府）將有更大的財政赤字，並允許地方政府發行更多債券，”龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)中國經濟學家陳龍表示。“與此同時，地方政府融資工具將獲准開足馬力借款。”

Chinese officials have argued that even as traditional economic engines such as property and infrastructure investment lose steam, consumption will make up for the reduced slack in the economy.

中國官員辯稱，即使傳統的經濟引擎（如房地產和基建投資）失去動力，消費也將彌補經濟中的鬆弛。

However, they admit that many of the most demanded products and services, especially in education and healthcare, are in short supply, leading to a need for “supply side” reforms.

但他們承認，許多需求最大的產品和服務（特別是在教育和醫療保健領域）供不應求，這意味着需要推行“供應側”改革。

“There are a lot of unmet demands in the economy,” the official said. “We are not facing a lack of demand.”

“經濟中有很多尚未滿足的需求，”上述官員說。“我們並非面臨需求不足。”

Like the “supply side” reforms by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the US and UK 30 years ago, Chinese officials have promised to cut red tape and lower administrative taxes. Many China-based manufacturers argue that in some areas they face costs comparable to, if not higher than, those in the US and Europe.

就像羅納德里根(Ronald Reagan)和瑪格麗特鈠切爾(Margaret Thatcher)30年前在美國和英國推行的“供應側”改革那樣，中國官員承諾削減繁文縟節和降低行政稅費。許多在中國從事製造的企業提出，在某些地區，他們面臨的成本與在美國和歐洲的同行不相上下，如果不是更高的話。

The Chinese government has, however, stopped short of embracing privatisation, with recent state sector reforms instead focused on reorganising existing state-owned enterprises.

然而，中國政府並未真正擁抱私有化，近期出臺的國企改革方案專注於重組現有的國有企業。