希臘人接受怎樣的財政方案

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of Greece caused a major uproar on Saturday when he announced a national referendum on the package of austerity reforms that the country’s creditors are demanding. The referendum, which is scheduled for next Sunday, is now a source of deep uncertainty, with Greeks lining up outside of ATMs to withdraw whatever euros they can, while the whole country is teetering on the brink of financial free-fall. Leaders across the globe, including President Obama, have expressed deep concern about the possibility of Greece dropping out of the 19-member eurozone, and already the markets have plummeted as a response.

希臘總理亞歷克西斯·齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)上週六的決定引起一片譁然，他宣佈舉行全民公投，來決定該國是否開展債權人要求的一攬子財政緊縮改革。定於週日舉行的公投如今成了巨大的不確定性的來源，希臘人在ATM機前排隊，盡其所能取出一些歐元現金，而整個國家正在懸崖邊踉踉蹌蹌，經濟很可能會一落千丈。全球各國的領導人，包括奧巴馬總統在內，都對希臘脫離由19個成員國組成的歐元區的可能性，表達了深切的擔憂。

Many believe that the Greeks have grown so wary of spending cuts and tax increases, which successive governments have adopted in return for a series of bailouts, that they would be bound to reject any kind of new austerity package, no matter its merit. Mr. Tsipras seemed to align himself with this view when he called on his country to say a “big ‘no’ to the ultimatum.” Tens of thousands of Greeks swarmed the streets of Athens on Monday night to voice their support for this resolute stand.

很多人都認爲，爲了贏得一系列救援資金，歷屆政府都採納了開支削減和增稅的政策，希臘人已經厭倦了這一切，所以他們肯定會回絕任何新的緊縮方案，無論多麼有益。齊普拉斯呼籲舉國上下“對最後通牒說一個大大的不”，這一言論似乎與上面的看法相一致。週一晚間，成千上萬的希臘民衆涌向雅典街頭，對這種決絕的立場表達支持。

Yet to reject the proposed deal is bound to have momentous implications, first and foremost Greece’s likely exit from the eurozone. Others thus maintain that Greeks would be open to a deal — even one that would include painful provisions — but that they are deeply apprehensive about specific aspects of the reforms and spending cuts that the country’s creditors are calling for. Mr. Tsipras has announced that he would honor the result of the referendum “whatever it is.”

然而回絕提出的方案肯定會有重大的影響，最首要的就是希臘可能會脫離歐元區。於是，其他人堅持希臘應當對方案持開放態度，即使其中包括令人痛苦的條款。但是他們對債權人要求的具體改革舉措和開支削減舉動，卻懷有深深的擔憂。齊普拉斯宣佈，他會尊重公投的結果，“無論是什麼結果”。

How to know which of these views more accurately reflects Greece’s position? The answer may determine whether the impending crisis can be averted.

怎樣才能知道，上述哪種觀點能更準確地反映希臘的立場？答案可能會告訴我們，能否避免即將到來的危機。

Last month we and two colleagues, Kirk C. Bansak of Stanford University and Michael M. Bechtel of the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, surveyed a national sample of 2,000 Greek voters. We showed them a series of possible austerity packages and asked them if they would vote in favor of the package if it were put to a referendum. Each respondent was presented with a slightly different version of tax increases and spending cuts, to gauge whether there were subtle conclusions about Greek public opinion that have until now gone unnoticed. The findings are surprising and indicative of how this referendum could shape up.

上個月，我們和兩位同事，斯坦福大學的柯克·C·班薩克(Kirk C. Bansak)以及瑞士聖加侖大學(University of St. Gallen)的邁克爾·M·柏克德(Michael M. Bechtel)對希臘各地的2000名選民進行了調查。我們向他們展示了一系列可能的緊縮方案，並詢問他們，如果這套方案付諸公投，他們是否會投贊成票。我們向每位受訪者展示的增稅和削減開支的方案略有不同，試圖以此判斷關於希臘民意，是不是有一些微妙的論斷直到現在都沒有受到關注。我們得出的發現令人驚訝，也有助於瞭解這次公投可能會如何推進。

Despite all the talk of a sweeping “big ‘no”’ to austerity, we found that only a fifth of the public was “fundamentally opposed” to it and would vote down any proposal that we put forth to a vote. These voters are not demographically or socioeconomically distinctive from the rest, but they disproportionately identify with the far left. Less surprising, perhaps, only a very small number of voters said they were in favor of a deal with Europe no matter what and were willing to back any package that would be put on the table.

儘管很多人都在談，對緊縮政策徹底地回答一個“大大的不”，但我們發現，只有五分之一的公衆對它持“根本性的反對態度”，對我們提出的任何方案都會投票反對。這部分選民在人口特徵和社會經濟特徵上，與其餘選民沒有多大區別，然而他們認同極左翼的比例，高得超乎尋常。或許最不令人驚訝的一點是，只有極少數選民表示，他們無論如何都會支持與歐盟達成妥協，願意支持他們提出的任何方案。

The battle on passing a referendum, therefore, will depend on the rest of the electorate — the roughly three of every four voters who are open to at least some of the packages under proposal. Passing the referendum would require just over 60 percent of these votes, a tough but not insurmountable outcome.

因此，公投的戰鬥，取決於剩下的那些選民。有大約四分之三的選民，至少願意接受提議的方案中的某些內容。公投獲得通過需要這些選民中的60%投贊成票，取得這個結果很難，但並非絕無可能。

Less than half of the austerity scenarios with which the voters were presented gained such a majority, suggesting that there are some austerity conditions that are just too hard for the general public to stomach. These primarily included cuts in pensions and in education spending. For example, adding a 15 percent pension cut to an austerity proposal would cause public support to drop by about 7 percentage points (and a 35 percent pension cut would shrink public support by almost 15 percentage points).

我們向選民展示的緊縮安排中，有不到半數贏得了這樣的多數支持，這表明某些財政緊縮的條件過於嚴苛，令公衆無法接受。其中主要包括退休金和教育開支的削減。例如，在一項緊縮方案中加入削減退休金15%的主張，公衆支持就會降低7個百分點。削減退休金35%，幾乎會令公衆支持率降低15個百分點。

Sensitive to this concern, the government’s proposal has avoided direct cuts to pensions, and has instead offered to place limits on early retirement and to raise employers’ social security contributions. And yet the austerity package demanded by Greece’s main creditors — the European Commission, the European Central Bank and particularly the International Monetary Fund — includes substantial demands for new pension cuts, all but guaranteeing that such a proposal will face fierce opposition in a referendum.

政府對這種擔憂很敏感，所以在提議中避免了直接削減退休金的做法，而是提出對提早退休作出限制，同時提高僱主社會保障金的繳納額。然而希臘的主要債權人——歐盟委員會(European Commission)、歐洲央行(European Central Bank)，尤其是國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)——提出的方案中，包括再一次削減退休金的重要要求。如此一來，這樣的提議幾乎肯定會在公投中面對激烈的反對。

Contrary to widespread perceptions, though, we found that Greeks are open to some spending cuts — even substantial ones — such as laying off public sector workers and reducing the country’s defense spending. Not only that, but such measures could potentially increase support for an austerity package, suggesting that the public has accepted the creditors’ warnings about Greece’s massive deficit.

然而，與普遍的觀念相反，我們發現希臘人願意接受某些削減開支的動作，即使是實質性的削減。比如裁汰公共部門員工、減少該國的國防開支。不僅如此，這樣的舉措還有可能提升公衆對緊縮方案的支持，這表明公衆接受了債權人對希臘鉅額赤字的警告。

Even when it comes to tax increases — typically seen as a political taboo — opposition is not uniform. We found, for example, that Greeks are strongly opposed to increases in the marginal income tax, but are much more open to increases in both the sales tax and corporate tax. Perhaps heeding this sentiment, the most recent Greek proposal focused on increases in those two taxes, including a substantial increase in the value-added (consumption) tax, a large increase in corporate tax rates and a one-off levy on corporate profits above 500 million euros. However, the Eurogroup — which includes the 19 finance ministers of the eurozone countries — has rejected the proposed increase in corporate taxes, saying it would hurt business and hamper growth.

即使談到增稅，反對立場也並不是整齊劃一的，而增稅通常被認爲是一個政治上的禁忌。例如，我們發現希臘人強烈反對提高邊際所得稅率，然而對提高消費稅和企業所得稅態度卻開放許多。或許是考慮了這種情緒，希臘政府最近的提議注重於提高這兩種稅收，包括大幅提高增值稅（消費稅）、大幅提高企業所得稅率，同時對超過5億歐元的企業利潤加徵一次性附加稅。與此同時，歐元區19國財政部長組成的歐元集團(Eurogroup)，卻回絕了提高企業所得稅的提議，稱那樣做會損害商業活動，抑制增長。

Greeks do not unconditionally reject austerity measures. Rather, a majority of the Greek public appears willing to vote in favor of a package that would include both spending cuts and painful tax increases, as long some areas — pensions, education and marginal income tax rates — are largely untouched.

希臘人並不是無條件地反對緊縮舉措。實際上，大部分希臘公衆似乎都願意投票支持一個既削減開支、又採取痛苦的增稅舉動的方案，只要某些領域——退休金、教育、邊際所得稅率——大體上不受影響。

If the Eurogroup is serious about reaching a deal with Greece that not only addresses the objective of deficit reduction but would also be politically viable, it should take these findings to heart. “Europe only succeeds if we work together,” Chancellor Angela Merkel once said. Austerity is a bitter pill, but by knowing where to push and where to hold off, it just might be one the Greeks would be willing to swallow.

如果歐元集團是認真地要與希臘達成一項妥協，不僅能實現削減赤字的目標，同時又有政治可行性，就必須認真考慮上述的發現。“只有通力合作，歐洲才能成功，”德國總理安格拉·默克爾(Angela Merkel)曾經說。緊縮是一劑苦藥，但如果明白哪裏可以用力，哪裏需要剋制，希臘人或許願意吞下這劑苦藥。