中資企業押注人民幣走弱 Chinese groups made bets on renminbi weakness

Some of China’s biggest state companies traded US-dollar debt for renminbi and ramped up dollar deposits in the second half of last year in a dual-pronged effort to eliminate higher US interest payments and bet on depreciation of the local currency.

中國一些最大的國有企業在去年下半年把美元債務置換成人民幣債務，並增加美元存款，這樣做既可避免支付較高美元利息，又押注人民幣貶值。

Across emerging markets companies have sought to ditch US dollar debt following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in December last year. In China, the weakening renminbi — down 4.19 per cent since the one-off devaluation on August 11 last year — has provided further incentive to be long on the dollar. However, since the start of the year, the currency has appreciated slightly.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)去年12月決定提高利率後，新興市場的企業紛紛設法擺脫美元債務。在中國，不斷走低的人民幣——自去年8月11日一次性貶值以來累計下跌4.19%——提供了做多美元的進一步激勵。不過，自今年初以來人民幣有小幅升值。

Mainland listed companies reduced offshore dollar debt by $37bn during the six-month period, or by about 35 per cent since June, according to data from Wind Financial Information. At the same time, the companies grew their offshore dollar deposit bases by $11bn, a 40 per cent increase over the same period.

萬得資訊(Wind Financial Information)的數據顯示，中國內地上市公司在去年下半年的6個月期間減少了370億美元的境外美元債務，降幅達到約35%。同期這些公司的境外美元存款增加了110億美元，增幅達到40%。

The moves are a sharp turnround from 2014, by the end of which Chinese companies had accumulated offshore dollar debt of $200bn, and reflected fears of continued renminbi weakness, said analysts.

分析師們表示，這些舉措標誌着2014年局面的大幅逆轉（截至該年年底中國企業積累了2000億美元的境外美元債務），並反映出企業對人民幣持續疲軟的恐懼。

State-owned Sinopec, one of China’s largest oil producers, led the pack by paring down its dollar debt by $12.7bn in the second quarter of last year. China Southern Airlines drew down $8bn in dollar debt, equivalent to 28 per cent of the company’s total assets, according to Wind.

中國最大石油企業之一、國有的中石化(Sinopec)跑在最前面，在去年第二季度減少了127億美元的美元債務。萬得資訊的數據顯示，中國南方航空公司(China Southern Airlines)減少了80億美元的美元債務，相當於該公司總資產的28%。

Energy and commodities companies were the biggest repayers of US dollar debt, with PetroChina, China Shenhua Energy, Baoshan Iron & Steel and Minmetals Development pruning exposure by a combined $19bn.

能源和大宗商品企業是美元債務的最大償還者，中石油(PetroChina)、神華能源(China Shenhua Energy)、寶鋼股份(Baoshan Iron & Steel)和五礦發展(Minmetals Development)總共減少了190億美元的美元債務。

Since August, companies have been converting their dollar exposures into renminbi through onshore note issuance or refinancing, said Raymond Yeung, a senior economist at ANZ in Hong Kong.

據澳新銀行(ANZ)駐香港的資深經濟學家楊宇霆(Raymond Yeung)介紹，自去年8月以來，各公司一直在通過發行在岸票據或再融資把自己的美元敞口置換成人民幣敞口。

“They have been worrying about further weakening of yuan as well as the narrowing yield gap between the two currencies,” Mr Yeung said. “After [August 11] last year they are getting more serious than before.”

“他們一直在擔心人民幣進一步走弱，擔心兩種貨幣之間的息差收窄，”楊宇霆表示。“去年8月11日之後，他們這方面的擔憂比之前更深了。”

Concerns have mounted over the ability of China’s corporate sector to repay its offshore debt. Several large Chinese corporation, such as Kaisa Group, China Fisheries and Shanshui Cement, are locked in restructuring negotiations after defaulting on offshore bonds.

外界對中國企業償還境外債務能力的擔憂近來有所加劇。數家中國大型企業，如佳兆業集團(Kaisa Group)、中漁集團(China Fisheries)和山水水泥(Shanshui Cement)在離岸債券上違約後，正在進行重組談判。

Issuance of dollar debt nearly halved during the second half 2015 compared with the same period the year before. Chinese corporations issued about $27.7bn in offshore dollar-denominated debt in the second half of 2014, according to data from Dealogic. Issuance fell to $15bn a year later.

與上年同期相比，2015年下半年美元債務發行量近乎減半。Dealogic的數據顯示，2014年下半年中資企業發行了大約277億美元的境外美元計價債務。2015年下半年的發行量降至150億美元。

The number of defaults is expected to rise as companies a face heavier repayment burden set to peak in 2018. As of January, $9.7bn in payments were due in 2016 on dollar-denominated bonds for Chinese corporations. By 2018, the figure will treble to $32.5bn.

隨着企業面對越來越沉重的償還負擔（這種負擔將在2018年達到頂峯），預計違約數量將會上升。根據今年1月的數據，2016年中國企業應償還的美元債券本息達到97億美元。到2018年，這一數字將增加兩倍，至325億美元。