復星放棄收購疑有隱衷 Fosun seller beware

The directive to know your counter-party can be hard to fulfil in China. As the government’s anti-corruption purge has spread into the private sector, even standardbearers for Chinese industry and finance are no longer in the clear. The ripples may be affecting their ability to do business.

瞭解交易對手方的指令在中國可能難以執行。中國政府的反腐敗鬥爭已波及私營部門，連中國工業和金融界的頭面人物也難倖免。由此掀起的波瀾可能會影響他們做生意的能力。

Yesterday Fosun International, the Chinese investment conglomerate, said it would no longer buy Phoenix, the Israeli insurance company. The deal, at $462m, was not large by Fosun’s standards — the company spent more than $30bn in 2014 and 2015 to purchase Club Med, the French tour operator, and Cirque du Soleil, the Canadian entertainment group. With net debt of $9bn and net debt to equity of 63 per cent, the sum to be paid for Phoenix was manageable.

中國企業集團復星國際(Fosun International)近日表示，將終止收購以色列保險公司Phoenix。這筆價值4.62億美元的交易按復星的標準規模並不算大——該公司在2014年和2015年斥資逾300億美元收購了法國旅遊運營商地中海集團(Club Med)和加拿大娛樂集團太陽劇團(Cirque du Soleil)。對於淨負債90億美元、淨債務與股本之比爲63%的復星，購買Phoenix的支出還是可控的。

The cancellation is significant for other reasons, though. It is the second time Fosun has stepped away from a deal in three months — and in its targeted financial sector. In December, Fosun withdrew from the battle to buy Kleinwort Benson, the merchant bank. Last month, it sold its 29 per cent stake in the bank to Oddo. To be fair, Fosun may not have wished to compete against a bid that was 10 per cent higher, and it made a profit on the sale of its stake. Yet for a company that models itself on the acquisitive style of Warren Buffett, the axing of deals sits awkwardly. And competition did not deter Fosun from buying Club Med — to win that battle, Fosun paid 45 per cent more than its initial offer price.

但是，此次放棄收購因爲其它原因不尋常。這是3個月來複星第二次在收購交易中半途而廢——而且都在它有意收購的金融領域。去年12月，復星撤出了對商人銀行克萊沃特-本森(Kleinwort Benson)的競購戰。上月，它將該行29%的股份賣給了法國的奧多(Oddo)。客觀來講，復星有可能不想與高出10%的出價展開競爭，而且出售所持股份還賺了一筆。然而，對於一家效仿沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)收購風格的公司來說，退出這些交易顯得很不自然。何況，競爭並沒有讓復星放棄收購地中海集團——爲了贏得那場勝利，復星比最初報價多付了45%。

Market conditions are different; Fosun stipulates that global turmoil was a factor behind the decision to step back from Phoenix. Still, one might think that Mr Buffett’s mantra to “be greedy when others are fearful” might lend more courage to a true disciple of the Sage of Omaha.

市場條件有所不同；復星稱，全球動盪是其放棄收購Phoenix的原因之一。然而，人們也許會認爲，巴菲特那句“在別人害怕時要貪婪”的箴言，應該會給“奧馬哈先知”的真正弟子帶來更多勇氣吧。

More informative may be Israeli press reports suggesting that the regulator there did not want the deal to go through. There could be numerous reasons for this, but the most obvious is uncertainty. Last DecemberGuo Guangchang, Fosun chairman, was detained, purportedly to help judicial authorities with their “investigations”. In China, this can mean he was under suspicion himself. Although Mr Guo was subsequently released and permitted to travel overseas, the episode remains shrouded in mystery. Unless the truth can be known, Fosun’s ambition may be curtailed.

更具信息量的說法，可能是以色列媒體報道中所暗示的：該國監管機構不願放行這筆交易。這可能有很多原因，但最明顯的原因是不確定性。去年12月，復星董事長郭廣昌曾經失聯，據稱是爲了協助司法機關“調查”。在中國，這也可能意味着他自己也是嫌疑人。雖然後來郭被釋放，還獲准出國，但那件事的具體情節仍籠罩在神祕之中。除非讓世人瞭解真相，否則復星的雄心可能難以實現。