新興市場債務繼續攀升 high and getting higher
Levels of debt in emerging markets continue to rise and are becoming a source of “significant concern”, the Institute of International Finance warned on Wednesday.
週三，國際金融協會(Institute of International Finance)警告，新興市場債務水平繼續攀升，正在成爲引發“嚴重擔憂”的一大源頭。
Total government, household, financial sector and corporate debt in emerging markets rose $1.6tn last year to $62tn, or more than 210 per cent of gross domestic product, according to the IIF, which represents global banks and other financial institutions.
國際金融協會是一家代表全球銀行和其他金融機構的組織，該組織稱，去年新興市場政府、家庭、金融部門和企業債務總額攀升了1.6萬億美元至62萬億美元，是其國內生產總值(GDP)的2.1倍以上。
It happened even as developed markets reduced their overall debt by an estimated $12tn last year, to about $175tn.
與此同時，據估計去年發達市場總體債務卻減少了12萬億美元，至大約175萬億美元。
“Total debt in EMs is high and getting higher,” said Hung Tran, the IIF’s executive managing director. “This will inhibit the ability to borrow to support growth, and the need to delever in the future will be a strong headwind to future growth.”
“新興市場總的債務水平極高，而且正在繼續升高。”國際金融協會執行總裁洪川(Hung Tran)表示。“這種狀況將會抑制新興市場通過借債支持經濟增長的能力，而未來去槓桿的必要性也將成爲阻礙未來增長的一大不利因素。”
Mr Tran said the IIF’s figures were consistent with those of the Bank for International Settlements, which said recently that dollar-denominated lending to EMs had peaked in the middle of last year and subsequently fallen for the first time since the global financial crisis.
洪川表示，國際金融協會的數據與國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數據一致。最近，國際清算銀行的數據顯示，發放給新興市場的以美元計價的貸款在去年年中達到峯值，並在隨後出現全球金融危機以來的首次下滑。
The BIS, the central bank of central banks, warned of a vicious circle of deleveraging, financial market turmoil and a global economic downturn.
作爲“央行的央行”的國際清算銀行就去槓桿、金融市場動盪和全球經濟下行的惡性循環發出了警告。
“Many non-financial corporations in emerging markets and especially in China have paid down their foreign currency debts so the BIS is correct,” said Mr Tran. “But they have increased their local currency debts by more than the amount they have paid down so net on net the stock of debt continues to increase everywhere, particularly in China.”
洪川表示：“在新興市場、尤其是中國，許多非金融企業已償還了外匯債務。因此，國際清算銀行說得沒錯。不過，他們的本幣債務增加的數額超過了他們所償還的數額。因此從淨結果看，各地的債務額仍在繼續增加，尤其是在中國。”
Companies in developed markets reduced their level of debt to GDP by 0.4 percentage points during 2015 to 87.4 per cent, the IIF’s figures show, while those in emerging markets added 6.7 points to reach 101.3 per cent of GDP. The IIF’s figures are for 19 emerging markets; in those countries taken together, corporate debt rose more than $1.9tn in 2015, to more than $25tn.
國際金融協會的數據顯示，2015年期間發達市場企業債務與GDP之比降低了0.4個百分點，降至87.4%。與此同時，新興市場企業債務與GDP之比卻增加了6.7個百分點，達到101.3%。國際金融協會的數據涵蓋了19個新興市場國家，這些國家加總來看，2015年它們的企業債務攀升了逾1.9萬億美元，達到逾25萬億美元。
The IIF warned that emerging market borrowers face a particularly heavy period of bond and loan maturities this year and in the subsequent four years. Including governments, households, the financial sector and non-financial sector, about $730bn in bonds and loans will come due between April and December this year, rising to more than $900bn next year, according to the IIF.
國際金融協會警告，今年和今後四年，新興市場的借款人面臨一段債券和貸款到期的尤爲密集的時期。根據該機構的數據，包括政府、家庭、金融部門和非金融部門在內，大約7300億美元的債券和貸款將會在今年4月和12月之間到期，這一數字明年會攀升至逾9000億美元。
Most of the maturities are in the non-financial corporate sector (see chart).
這些到期債務中的大多數來自非金融企業部門（見圖表）。
“This is a challenge for many EM corporates,” said Mr Tran. “If we continue to see the current picture of a strong dollar, low commodity prices, slow growth and rising US interest rates, it will be very tough for many companies to raise the necessary refinancing.”
洪川表示：“這是許多新興市場企業面臨的一大挑戰。如果當前這種強勢美元、低大宗商品價格、增長低迷和美國利率攀升的局面持續下去，許多企業將極難進行必要的再融資。”
He said this was reflected in the low rate of bond and loan issuance this year, which is running at about 35 per cent less than it was this time in 2015.
他說，今年債券發行和貸款發放低迷就能反映出這一點——比2015年同期低了35%左右。
“The level of non-performing bank loans has been rising and will probably keep rising, and we think the risk and incidence of default by corporates will increase this year,” he said.
他說：“不良銀行貸款的水平一直在攀升，也許還會繼續攀升。我們認爲，今年企業違約的風險和發生率將會升高。”
