中國樓市出現復甦跡象 Green shoots in China’s flagging property market

Chinese housing prices rose at their fastest monthly pace in 18 months, a private survey showed on Thursday, the latest sign that the country's property market, a key growth driver, is recovering from a year-long slump.

週四，一項民間調查顯示，中國房價出現18個月來的最大環比上漲。這一最新跡象表明，作爲中國經濟增長的重要引擎，中國樓市正從持續一年的下滑中復甦。

The slumping property market is a major reason growth in China’s economy slowed to a six-year low in the fourth quarter. Economists estimate that building, sale and outfitting of apartments accounts for about a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product.

不斷下滑的樓市是去年第四季度中國經濟增速放緩至六年低點的主要原因之一。經濟學家估計，中國國內生產總值(GDP)約有四分之一來自住房建設、銷售和裝修。

Average home prices rose 0.56 per cent in June from a month earlier, data from the China Index Academy’s survey of 100 cities show, up from a 0.45 per cent gain in May and the fastest growth since January 2014. In spite of the new figures, however, analysts expect the market to recover only gradually.

中國指數研究院(China Index Academy)對100個城市的調查所得出的數據顯示，6月份中國平均房價環比上漲0.56%，高於5月份0.45%的環比漲幅，是2014年1月以來的最高環比漲幅。但儘管如此，分析師還是預計樓市只會緩步復甦。

“A nationwide property market recovery will remain a prolonged and strenuous process, dragged by large inventory overhangs in second and third-tier cities,” Australia and New Zealand Banking Group analysts led by Liu Li-Gang wrote in a note.

以劉利剛爲首的澳新銀行集團(ANZ)分析師在一份報告中寫道：“受二三線城市積壓的大量庫存的拖累，全國性的樓市復甦仍將是個漫長而艱苦的過程。”

The central bank has slashed benchmark interest rates four times since November, helping to lower mortgage costs. The People’s Bank of China has also cut the amount of cash that commercial banks must hold in reserve at the central bank, increasing liquidity in the financial system.

自去年11月以來，中國央行已四次降息，幫助降低房貸成本。此外，中國央行還下調了商業銀行存款準備金率，向中國金融體系注入更多流動性。

ANZ estimates that a 1 percentage point increase in property prices translates to 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth.

據澳新銀行估計，房價每上漲1個百分點，GDP增速就會提升0.2個百分點。

Analysts also say that some investors are now taking profits from the Chinese stock market — which hit a seven-year high on June 12 but has tumbled more than 20 per cent in the past two weeks — and investing them into property, which looks more fairly valued after a year of falling prices.

分析師還表示，部分投資者正從中國股市獲利離場，並將所得資金投資於房地產。中國股市在6月12日達到七年高點後，在過去兩週裏下跌了20%以上。而房價在經歷了一年的下滑之後，現在看起來更合理一些。

Local governments have also taken measures to stimulate the housing market. Xi’an, in central China, recently allowed non-native homebuyers who purchase flats larger than 90 sq m to obtain a residence permit for the city, which comes with social welfare benefits.

除此以外，地方政府也採取了多項措施刺激樓市。最近，西安市允許購房面積在90平米以上的外地購房者在西安落戶，這意味着他們可享受到與西安戶籍相伴的社會福利。

The price recovery matches official data showing that new residential property sales were up 13 per cent annually in floor-area terms in May, the second month of gains after 13 straight months of falling sales.

這一顯示房價回升的調查結果，與官方發佈的數據一致。官方數據顯示，5月份新房銷售面積同比增長13%，這是該數據在連續13個月下滑後第二次上升。

The central bank’s first-quarter household survey showed that 14.7 per cent of residents said they planned to buy a home in the next three months, up from 13.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

中國央行第一季度對家庭展開的調查顯示，14.7%的家庭表示計劃在未來3個月買房，而上一個季度的數字爲13.8%。

Rating agency Moody’s upgraded its outlook for China’s property sector on June 1 to stable from negative.

6月1日，評級機構穆迪(Moody's)將其對中國房地產業的展望從負面上調至穩定。

Official data still showed monthly price declines for newly built residential apartments in May but the decline narrowed to 0.1 per cent, according to FT analysis of the figures. Official property price data for June is due out July 18.

此外，根據英國《金融時報》的分析，雖然中國官方數據仍顯示5月份新房價格環比下跌，但其跌幅卻收窄至0.1%。至於6月份房價的官方數據，則定於在7月18日公佈。