耶倫謹慎言論使美國加息前景渺茫

The prospect of an early US interest-rate increase diminished further yesterday as Janet Yellen advocated caution given unfavourable market conditions, weaker than expected overseas growth and an uncertain inflation outlook.

美國加息前景昨日進一步渺茫。珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)主張謹慎，理由是市場條件不利、海外增長弱於預期以及通脹前景不確定。

The Federal Reserve chair said recent declines in market expectations for interest-rate rises had helped cushion the US economy from adverse developments overseas, describing the moves as an “automatic stabiliser”.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)主席稱，近來市場降低加息預期，已經幫助緩解了海外不利事態給美國帶來的衝擊，她形容這些舉動是一種“自動穩定器”。

But she stressed that the Fed had little scope to reverse course and stimulate the economy with rate cuts if the US unexpectedly hit the buffers, underlying the need for a gradual tightening of policy. She homed in on risks still stewing in China and the oil markets as she argued in a New York address for the central bank to move carefully as it considers when to lift rates again.

但是，她強調稱，如果美國意外陷入停滯，美聯儲沒有什麼空間可以逆轉政策進程，通過降息來刺激經濟，這突顯了逐漸收緊政策的必要性。在紐約發表講話期間，她着重指出中國以及石油市場仍在發酵的種種風險，並據此主張美國央行在考慮何時再次加息時應該謹慎行動。

Treasuries rallied as Ms Yellen spoke, with traders at CRT Capital calling her remarks a “surprisingly dovish take on the current policy stance and near-term outlook”. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to its price, slipped 6 basis points to 0.81 per cent.

在耶倫發表講話後，美國國債上漲，CRT Capital的交易員稱耶倫的言論“是對當前政策立場和短期前景的出乎意料的鴿派評估”。兩年期國債收益率（與價格走勢相反）下滑6個基點，至0.81%。

“Whatever speculation there was on [an April rise] conveyed by previous Fed speakers, that has been blown out of the water,” said Steven Englander, head of rates strategy at Citigroup.

“無論此前美聯儲官員傳達了（有關4月加息的）何種推測，現在都已經煙消雲散了，”花旗集團(Citigroup)的利率策略主管史蒂文•英格蘭德(Steven Englander)稱。

US stocks bounced off lows earlier in the trading day, pushing the benchmark S&P 500 index back into positive territory for the year, while the dollar slid to its lowest levels in a week.

美國股市從早盤的跌勢反彈，基準的標普500指數(S&P 500)收市時升至今年最高水平，報2055.01，同時美元匯率下滑至一週來最低水平。