美元匯率正蓄勢待發 Dollar begins to stir from its slumber

Something is stirring in the currency jungle, and those who know its terrain best wonder whether it is the mighty beast — the dollar.

貨幣叢林里正發出一些不安分的聲音，那些最瞭解這個地方的人在想，那聲音是不是來自貨幣叢林中的猛獸——美元。

After weeks of lying low after a sustained period of weakness, rumblings of its familiar growl are starting to be heard, distant though the sound may be. The index that measures the dollar against a basket of its major peers picked up last week, while 10-year Treasury yields are also rising.

在一段持續疲弱期過後，美元潛伏了數週，眼下它熟悉的低嚎聲開始傳出——儘管聲音可能有些遙遠。上週，衡量美元兌一籃子主要貨幣匯率的指數上升，而10年期美國國債收益率也在上升。

“There is a case to be made that the dollar has hit a bottom, at least against the euro and the yen,” says Steven Englander, FX strategist at Citigroup.

花旗集團(Citigroup)外匯策略師史蒂文•英格蘭德(Steven Englander)表示：“我們有理由認爲美元匯率已觸底，至少美元兌歐元和美元兌日元匯率已觸底。”

The dollar index fell more than 5 per cent in the first 15 weeks of the year. Since then, it has retrieved about a quarter of that loss, although it was back on the defensive yesterday.

今年頭15周，美元指數下跌逾5%。此後，美元指數已將這一跌幅收復回來約四分之一，儘管週二又回到守勢。

What happens next to the reserve currency depends on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting today. In all likelihood, Fed chair Janet Yellen will once again fire off at the dollar another of those tranquilliser darts that have tamed its strength since early February, repeating the cautious tone about US growth and inflation she presented during last month’s speech to the Economic Club of New York.

美元的下一步走勢取決於美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)週三的會議。美聯儲(Fed)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)很有可能再次向美元發射一枚鎮靜劑飛鏢（自2月初以來，這些鎮靜劑飛鏢一直壓制着美元的強勢），重複她在上月紐約經濟俱樂部(Economic Club of New York)演講中說過的有關美國經濟增長和通脹的謹慎論調。

The question across the FX landscape is whether the dovish tranquilliser is losing its potency. Growth may look weak, but Bank of America Merrill Lynch is among those that detect rising inflationary and wages trends and continued jobs growth.

對整個外匯市場而言，問題在於，這種鴿派鎮靜劑是否正失去效力。增長可能看上去疲弱，但美國銀行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)等機構都發現，通脹和薪資有上漲趨勢、就業持續增長。

Adding to the mix are more temperate conditions for growth in emerging markets, stronger equities, better news from China and a sustained rally in oil. The case for another rate rise in June is firming up, and the message to investors is that those with a whiff of risk in their nostrils should consider buying the dollar for a longer term horizon.

其他利好消息包括新興市場增長條件更爲溫和、股市走高、從中國傳出的消息轉好以及油價持續上漲。美聯儲有在6月再次加息的理由越來越充足，傳達給消費者的信息是，那些嗅到一絲風險氣息的人應考慮買入美元並在較長時間內持有。

Three reasons stand out for investors to be more upbeat about the dollar, says Jane Foley, strategist at Rabobank. Risk appetite is on the rise, FOMC members are making more noises about the prospects of a June rate increase and long dollar positions have been pared back for more than a year.

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)策略師簡•福利(Jane Foley)表示，投資者有3條明顯理由應該對美元更爲樂觀。風險偏好正在上升、FOMC成員發出更多聲音暗示可能在6月加息、看漲美元的頭寸一年多以來一直在減少。

The Fed is the only major central bank likely to raise rates this year while further easing from its peers “should lend the dollar support”, says Ms Foley.

福利表示，美聯儲是今年唯一一家可能加息的大型央行，其他央行的進一步貨幣寬鬆政策“應會爲美元提供支撐”。

What holds investors back is the sense that Ms Yellen will remain careful not to fan renewed market turmoil.

讓投資者不敢輕舉妄動的是，他們認爲耶倫仍會小心翼翼地避免再次掀起市場動盪。

“Given the amount of uncertainty out there, [central banks] have managed to create some sense of stability,” says Charles St-Arnaud, FX strategist at Nomura. That stability dates from the G20 meeting in Shanghai in February, which some commentators believe established a truce among central banks to refrain from excessively weakening their currencies.

野村(Nomura)外匯策略師查爾斯•聖-阿諾(Charles St-Arnaud)表示：“考慮到市場上存在的巨大不確定性，（各央行）已設法制造出了某種穩定感。”這種穩定要回溯到今年2月在上海舉行的20國集團(G20)會議，一些評論人士認爲，各央行在這次會議上達成了一項休戰協議，約定不實施過分的本幣貶值。

“If you are a business, you want relatively stable exchange rates to make your plans,” says Mr St-Arnaud. Ms Yellen’s dilemma is that if conditions do merit a shift in the Fed’s outlook, how does she do so without upsetting the market?

阿諾表示：“如果你是一家公司，你會希望匯率保持相對穩定，以便制定計劃。”耶倫面臨的難題是，如果當前狀況確實需要美聯儲改變前景展望，那麼她如何在不擾亂市場情況下做到這點？

Several commentators believe it is the dollar’s weakness that it is firing the oil rally and in turn boosting commodity and EM currencies. So it stands to reason that a dollar revival would force down commodity prices and revive worries about China’s currency.

多名評論人士認爲，促使油價上漲、從而提振大宗商品和新興市場貨幣價格的是美元疲軟。因此，我們有理由認爲，美元復甦將壓低大宗商品價格並重燃對中國貨幣的擔憂。

Kit Juckes, strategist at Société Générale warns: “The Fed has painted itself into a corner. The odds of a June hike are now down at 20 per cent and the FOMC can’t signal a move without triggering market turmoil.”

法國興業銀行(ociété Générale)策略師基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)警告稱：“美聯儲已經把自己逼到了死角。6月加息的可能性現在降至20%，FOMC無法在不引發市場動盪的情況下發出採取行動的信號。”

Policymakers expect two interest rate increases in 2016, while the bond market prices in none. “What if the Fed delivers what it says it is going to deliver?” asks Mr Englander. “Is everything going to fall apart, or is the market going to be more resilient to surprises?”

政策制定者預計，今年美聯儲將有兩次加息，而已經反映到市場價格上的是0次。“如果美聯儲說到做到怎麼辦？”英格蘭德表示，“市場是會崩潰，還是會禁受得住意外？”

He warns that the market should therefore anticipate the Fed disappointing dollar bull investors, and for that reason, “EM and currencies will have a good week”.

他警告稱，因此市場應該明白，美聯儲有可能讓看漲美元的投資者失望，因此，“新興市場貨幣將度過美好的一週”。

At some point something may give, though for now a dollar that has catnapped its way through 2016 may continue to sit things out. The jungle should beware, however — the dollar is perking up and getting ready for a sustained run.

在某個時刻，某個地方可能會支撐不住，不過就目前而言，今年迄今一直在裝睡的美元可能會繼續按兵不動。然而，貨幣叢林應該警惕：美元正在活躍起來，爲一段持續的上漲做準備。