金價大跌利好奢侈品珠寶商 Falling gold price a positive for luxury brands

Luxury jewellers face challenges on numerous fronts — but a battered gold price is not one of them, making the sector one of the few winners amid a global commodities rout.

奢侈品珠寶商在很多領域面臨挑戰，但金價下跌並非這些挑戰之一，反而讓奢侈品行業成爲全球大宗商品大跌中爲數不多的贏家之一。

The yellow metal had a long bull run at the beginning of the 21st century, steadily climbing from 1999 onwards and soaring after the financial crisis hit in 2008. However, the market had peaked by the end of 2011, and this summer began hitting multi-year lows, spurred by falling demand from China and India as well as by a strengthening dollar and the prospect of rising US interest rates.

從21世紀初開始，黃金一直處於長期牛市。金價自1999年來穩步上漲，在2008年金融危機爆發之後大幅上漲。然而，金價在2011年底前見頂，在今年夏季開始屢創多年新低，背後因素在於中國和印度需求的減少，以及美元走強和美國加息預期。

Although gold prices began climbing again in August as investors grappled with a global equity sell-off, the price is still about 40 per cent down from its historic peak of $1,900.20 in May 2011.

儘管由於投資者努力應對全球股票拋售，金價在今年8月再次攀升，但當前金價仍比2011年5月創下的1990.20美元的歷史高點低了約40%。

How far in advance top jewellers purchase gold supplies varies, but the average across the industry is approximately one year. This means that although the beneficial effect of a lower gold price for the manufacturing side will not be felt immediately, it will still flatter margins eventually.

頂級珠寶商提前多久購買黃金不盡相同，但全行業平均提前時間約爲1年。這意味着，儘管金價對生產商的好處不會立刻顯現，但最終仍將提高利潤率。

Swiss luxury goods group Richemont, owner of jewellers including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Piaget, says the cost of craftsmanship in assembling its $17,000 rings and $10,000 necklaces far outweighs the cost of the raw materials each piece requires.

卡地亞(Cartier)、梵克雅寶(Van Cleef & Arpels)和伯爵(Piaget)等珠寶品牌的持有人、瑞士奢侈品集團歷峯(Richemont)表示，其1.7萬美元戒指和1萬美元項鍊的製作成本遠遠超過了每件商品所需原材料的成本。

Thomas Chauvet, an analyst at Citi, agrees. “While Richemont and Swatch will continue to benefit from lower gold prices, let’s not overestimate this impact,” he says.

花旗(Citi)分析師托馬阠偉(Thomas Chauvet)表示，“儘管歷峯和斯沃琪(Swatch)將繼續受益於金價下跌，但我們不要過高估計這一影響。”

Judged against where it was in 2008 and 2011, the gold price looks set to remain depressed for now, meaning jewellers should breathe a sigh of relief that commodities are not added to their list of headaches, which include currency gyrations, the push to reduce corruption and ostentatious gift-giving among Chinese officials — which has hit sales of fine watches — and a slowing Chinese economy. But there could yet be a worrying twist.

跟2008年和2011年的行情相比，金價目前似乎會保持在低水平上，意味着珠寶商應該會鬆一口氣了：大宗商品並未進入他們的“頭疼清單”。令他們頭疼的問題包括貨幣波動、中國致力於打擊官員腐敗和贈送豪華禮品的行動——這衝擊了名貴手錶的銷售——以及中國經濟增長放緩。但是，可能還存在一個令人困擾的問題。

A big factor in the reduced gold price has been curtailed demand from China, a symptom of strain in the country’s economy. This is potentially making life for jewellers in that market increasingly difficult, even if the cost of producing goods is now slightly cheaper than it was five years ago.

金價下跌背後的一個重要因素是中國需求減弱，這正是中國經濟承壓的一個徵兆。這可能讓中國市場上的珠寶商面臨日益艱難的處境，即便如今的生產成本比5年前略低。

Global gold demand dropped 12 per cent to 914.9 tonnes in the three months to June, a six-year low, according to the World Gold Council, an industry body. The fall was chiefly the result of weakness in the key markets of India and China. In the case of India, this was linked to seasonal factors, such as the small number of days considered lucky for a wedding, but for China the drop was caused by what is becoming a prolonged period of poor growth and stock market turmoil.

行業機構世界黃金協會(World Gold Council)的數據顯示，在截至6月的3個月內，世界黃金需求下降了12%，降至914.9噸的六年新低。這主要是關鍵市場印度和中國需求疲弱的結果。至於印度，這跟季節性因素相關，比如被認爲適合結婚的日子很少；但對中國而言，這主要是長期的經濟增長疲軟以及股市動盪所致。