特朗普的崛起敗壞了民主信譽?
This week, Republicans will endorse the first US presidential nominee since the second world war to reject America’s globalist consensus. It is hard to see beyond that stark fact. Yet it is only the second most troubling feature of Donald Trump’s rise. The bigger one is his impact on the health of American democracy. Even if Mr Trump is defeated in November, it will be hard to put the genie back into the bottle. Budding demagogues will have taken note. You can denigrate most of the people most of the time and still have a shot at the main prize.
美國共和黨正在舉行大會，預計會正式提名唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)作爲該黨的總統候選人。他將是二戰以來首位對美國的全球主義共識說不的總統候選人。人們很難從這一嚴峻現實中看到積極的一面。然而，這還不是特朗普崛起最令人擔憂的地方。最令人不安的是他對美國民主制度健康運行的影響。即便特朗普在11月的大選中失利，釋放出的魔鬼也很難再收回瓶中。蠢蠢欲動的煽動者將牢記此道。你可以在大部分時間裏詆譭大多數人，同時照樣有機會獲得“大獎”。
Stripped to their essence, US presidential elections are a tug of war between freedom and equity. It is impossible to get a full dose of both. Republicans generally favour liberty over equality and Democrats the reverse. Other people’s dignity is not up for grabs. Mr Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican party has shredded that equation. Comparisons between Mr Trump and Ronald Reagan are particularly misleading. Mr Trump speaks to that part of people that feels cheated, slighted and humiliated. People who attend his rallies emerge angrier than before. “You walked out of a Reagan rally in a spirit of optimism,” says Stuart Stevens, an adviser to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. “You leave a Trump rally ready for a fight.”
就本質而言，美國總統選舉是一場自由與公平之間的拉鋸戰。兩個目標不可能同時全面實現。共和黨通常偏愛自由勝過平等，而民主黨恰好相反。不能拿其他人的尊嚴做買賣。特朗普對共和黨的敵意接管打破了這種平衡。把特朗普與羅納德·里根(Ronald Reagan)進行類比尤其誤導。特朗普的目標受衆是那些感覺受到欺騙、輕視和羞辱的人。參加特朗普競選集會的人在離開會場時比之前更加憤怒。“你帶着樂觀精神走出里根的競選集會，”上屆共和黨總統候選人米特·羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)的顧問斯圖爾特·史蒂文斯(Stuart Stevens)說，“離開特朗普的競選集會時，你只想找茬。”
It should be no surprise when violence ensues. Mr Trump has given supporters the green light by saying he would like to punch the protesters himself. This week’s Cleveland convention will test Mr Trump’s self-control on a grander level. For the first time since the 1960s, far-right white supremacist groups will be likely to be patrolling the same streets as black civil rights protesters. Taboo sentiments, such as Holocaust denial, are seeping back into the conversation.
所以，暴力接踵而來是不足爲奇的。特朗普爲支持者大開綠燈，稱他很想親自狠揍異議者。本週在克利夫蘭舉行的共和黨大會將在更大層面上考驗特朗普的自我控制。自上世紀60年代以來，極右的白人至上主義者團體很可能將首次與黑人民權抗議者在相同街道上游行。曾被視爲禁忌的看法（如否認猶太人大屠殺）正在一點點回到人們的談話中。
It is facile to blame it all on social media. Technology makes it easier for fringe groups to disseminate their prejudices. But it is leaders that validate such demons. Anyone who doubts that should watch how children respond to adult supervision. Then they should read Lord of the Flies.
把這一切都歸咎於社交媒體未免草率。科技使得邊緣羣體更易於散播他們的偏見。但讓這些偏見具有份量的是領導人。懷疑這一點的任何人，都應該看看孩子們對成年人監督的反應。然後，他們應讀一讀《蠅王》(Lord of the Flies)。
Comparisons between Mr Trump and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi are far more apt. A leading Italian scholar, Luigi Zingales, recalls an event at which the country’s former prime minister taunted an embarrassed young woman by making repeated schoolboyish puns about orgasms. The shocking part was not Mr Berlusconi’s boorishness but the audience’s wild applause.
將特朗普與意大利的西爾維奧•貝盧斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)進行類比恰當得多。意大利知名學者路易吉•津加萊斯(Luigi Zingales)回憶起在一場活動上，這位意大利前總理不停地講“葷段子”來奚落一位陷入窘境的年輕女子。令人震驚的不是貝盧斯科尼的粗魯行爲，而是觀衆熱烈的掌聲。
“Such approval would have been unimaginable before the rise of Berlusconi,” said Mr Zingales. “There is no way of measuring the degree to which he has debased public life in Italy.” The same applies to the Trump effect. But the quality of Italy’s democracy is largely an Italian affair. Even Britain’s decision to leave the EU is ultimately local. What happens in America shapes the fate of democracy around the world.
“貝盧斯科尼崛起之前，這樣的讚許簡直無法想象，”津加萊斯說，“無法衡量他對意大利公共生活的敗壞程度。”特朗普效應也是如此。但意大利民主的質量在很大程度上只是意大利國內事務。就連英國退歐決定的影響最終也是局部的。美國的情況影響着世界各地民主的命運。
Mr Trump’s rise is bad news for our system of government on three fronts. First, he has shown you can rise to the top of the world’s most cherished democracy by scapegoating entire categories of people. Whether that is illegal Hispanic immigrants, women he deems unattractive, Muslims of any kind, or African-Americans who get uppity, Mr Trump has profited from other people’s indignity. Apologists for Mr Trump say he is only channelling popular sentiment. In fact, he is licensing its darkest instincts. Alarmists liken today’s crisis of democracy to the 1930s. A more instructive parallel is what followed. No country reflected more deeply about the meaning of constitutional democracy than post-Nazi Germany. The first line of Germany’s 1949 Basic Law is: “Human dignity shall be inviolable.”
特朗普的崛起在三個方面對我們的政府體制意味着凶兆。首先，他展示了，你可以通過讓整個羣體成爲替罪羊來登上世界最受珍視的民主制度的最高領導崗位。不論是非法的西語裔移民、他眼中缺乏魅力的女性、任何教派的穆斯林，或是自負的非裔美國人，特朗普受益於對別人的羞辱。特朗普的辯護者稱，他只是在引導民意。實際上，他在激發人性中最黑暗的一面。危言聳聽者喜歡把當下的民主危機與1930年代相提並論。更有啓示的比較對象是1930年代之後發生的事情。沒有哪個國家比二戰後的德國更深入地反思了憲政民主的意義。德國1949年制定的《基本法》(Basic Law)的第一章第一條即爲：“人的尊嚴不可侵犯。”
Second, he has made post-factual politics respectable. US detractors — call them the “expert class” — quixotically fact-check Mr Trump’s stream of assertions. No, America’s president does not have the authority to order American companies to repatriate overseas plants. No, Mr Trump did not oppose the 2003 Iraq war. Yes, the US maintains a nuclear triad. No, the US Treasury cannot unilaterally rewrite the terms on its debt obligations. And no, America’s constitution does not permit a religious test for citizenship. To pro-democracy forces in places like China, Mr Trump’s immunity from truth is baffling. Eric Li, a leading Chinese venture capitalist, says Mr Trump’s success has undercut liberal reformists in China. “If the people can be so wrong, how can you give them the vote?” he wrote recently in Foreign Affairs.
第二，他使得無視事實的政治文化成爲常態。美國的批評者——不妨稱其爲“專家階層”——唐吉訶德式地核實特朗普的各種斷言。不對，美國總統無權下令美國企業將海外工廠遷回國內。不對，特朗普並未反對2003年的伊拉克戰爭。是的，美國保持着核三位一體（指一國同時具備陸基洲際彈道導彈、潛射彈道導彈和戰略轟炸機三種核打擊方式的能力——譯者注）。不對，美國財政部不能單方面修改其債務契約的條款。不對，美國憲法不允許對公民資格進行宗教測試。對於中國等國的親民主力量而言，特朗普信口雌黃卻照樣崛起，令他們困惑。知名華裔風險資本家李世默(Eric Li)表示，特朗普的成功不利於中國的自由派改革者。“如果人民會犯如此大的錯，怎麼能給他們選票呢？”他最近在《外交》(Foreign Affairs)雜誌上寫道。
Finally, Mr Trump has corroded faith that rules-based societies are self-sustaining. This time it really could be different. The real estate mogul has never encountered a setback where he did not head straight to the nearest court to overturn it. Does anyone believe a defeated Mr Trump would call Hillary Clinton on November 8 to wish her luck? It is easy to forget that democracy is based on adversaries’ respect for the integrity of the system. Mutual trust, not law, is democracy’s strongest glue. Belief in human dignity is what underpins it.
最後，特朗普腐蝕了一種信念——即基於規則的社會可以長治久安。這次真的可能會不同。這位房地產大亨每次遇到阻礙，都會徑直前往最近的法院試圖將其推翻。有人認爲被擊敗的特朗普會在11月8日打電話給希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)祝她好運嗎？很容易被遺忘的是，民主建立在競爭者都尊重體制誠信的基礎上。相互信任（而非法律）是民主制度最強的黏合劑，而支撐互信的是對人的尊嚴的信念。
At his nomination in Cleveland this week, Mr Trump will present his opponent as a crook, his critics as losers, his business record as unparalleled, and his invented facts as the gospel. At least 40 per cent of Americans will still vote for him in November. Democracy’s enemies and friends alike may ask: “How many Trumps can the system take?”
週二在克利夫蘭被正式提名後發表講話時，特朗普將把他的對手描述爲騙子，把他的批評者描述爲失敗者，他的從商經歷無人能及，他虛構的事實是福音。仍會有至少40%的美國人將在11月投票支持特朗普。民主制度的敵人和朋友或許都會問：“這一制度能容納多少個特朗普？”
