下任美國總統應轉向歐洲
When the cold war ended 25 years ago, Europe emerged as prosperous, democratic, united and peaceful.
25年前冷戰結束後，歐洲呈現出一片繁榮、民主、團結、和平的景象。
Today, however, it faces interlocking crises that threaten to undermine the continent’s economy and weaken the EU.
但如今，它面臨一系列環環相扣的危機，這些危機有可能破壞歐洲經濟、削弱歐盟(EU)。
This has significant implications for the US and for its next president.
歐洲的形勢對美國及其下任總統有重大影響。
Europe remains America’s largest trade partner and investor, and 25 European nations are members of Nato, its most important military alliance.
歐洲仍是美國最大的貿易伙伴和投資來源地，歐洲有25個國家是美國最重要的軍事同盟——北約(Nato)的成員。
As a global power, the US must interact with every major region of the world.
作爲一個全球強國，美國必須與世界所有主要地區互動。
But for all the undeniable importance of the so-called pivot to Asia, the next US president may have to focus first on Europe.
但是，儘管所謂的轉向亞洲(pivot to Asia)戰略具有不可否認的重要性，但下任美國總統或許不得不首先聚焦於歐洲。
Americans in both parties worry about a weaker, more divided EU.
美國民主、共和兩黨人士都擔心一個虛弱、分裂的歐盟。
When Britain leaves, the bloc will lose its second-largest economy and its strongest military.
英國退出將使歐盟失去第二大經濟體和最強大的軍隊。
Combined with a recurring Greek debt crisis and declining public support for ever-closer union, the European project appears adrift.
再加上反覆發作的希臘債務危機以及公衆對日益緊密的聯盟支持率下滑，歐洲一體化計劃似乎一籌莫展。
Americans are also watching warily the most serious far-right populist revolt in Europe since the 1930s.
美國人也警惕地注視着歐洲出現的自上世紀30年代以來最嚴重的極右翼民粹主義反抗運動。
While the US is experiencing its own ugly nativist campaign, led by Donald Trump, the reactionary Viktor Orban is already in power in Hungary and the Law and Justice government in Poland has created problems for both Brussels and Washington.
在美國國內經歷唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)領頭的醜陋的本土主義運動之際，逆歷史潮流而動的歐爾班.維克托(Viktor Orban)已在匈牙利掌權，波蘭的法律與公正黨(Law and Justice party)政府給布魯塞爾和華盛頓都製造了麻煩。
Will similar movements in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany deepen the assault on the EU’s liberal democratic foundations?
法國、比利時、荷蘭、奧地利和德國出現的類似運動會深化對歐盟的自由民主基石的攻擊嗎？
The US also recognises that the vast number of Syrian, Iraqi, Afghan and North African refugees has overwhelmed Europe’s ability to assimilate them.
美國也認識到，來自敘利亞、伊拉克、阿富汗以及北非的大量難民超出了歐洲的收容能力。
German chancellor Angela Merkel and other European leaders would be right to ask the new US leader to accept a substantially greater number of refugees than President Barack Obama.
德國總理安格拉.默克爾(Angela Merkel)和其他歐洲領導人有理由促請美國新領導人收容比巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)主政時期更多的難民。
Finally, a previously united Europe is being divided by the aggression of President Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Georgia and eastern Ukraine and annexation of Crimea pose an existential threat to the survival of free countries along Russia’s southern and western borders.
最後，昔日團結的歐洲正遭到俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)的侵略行徑的分化，俄羅斯入侵格魯吉亞和烏克蘭東部、吞併克里米亞的行爲，對與俄羅斯南部和西部邊界接壤的自由國家構成了生死存亡的威脅。
The Russian challenge will become particularly acute next month, when the US will be in the middle of the presidential transition.
俄羅斯帶來的挑戰將在12月美國總統交接期間變得尤爲嚴重。
That is when European nations must decide whether to extend the sanctions imposed on Moscow after the assault on Ukraine.
屆時，歐洲國家必須決定是否延長烏克蘭遭入侵後對莫斯科實施的制裁。
Anything less than a full and unequivocal extension of the sanctions regime would weaken the American president-elect just as the relationship with Moscow reaches its lowest ebb since the 1980s.
在美俄關係處於自上世紀80年代以來的最低谷之際，如果歐洲各國不能全面、果斷地延長對俄羅斯的制裁機制，那將削弱美國當選總統的地位。
Hillary Clinton has supported the impressive efforts of Mr Obama’s team to rebuild US military strength in Europe.
希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)支持奧巴馬團隊重建美國在歐洲軍事力量的令人印象深刻的努力。
Moving Nato battalions into Poland and the Baltic states to protect them from Russian aggression will be an urgent priority in 2017.
讓北約部隊進駐波蘭和波羅的海國家以保護它們免遭俄羅斯侵犯，將是2017年的當務之急。
This would not be sabre-rattling, as claimed by Frank Walter-Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, but a warning to Mr Putin that the west will protect the democracies of eastern Europe at all costs.
這不是德國外長弗蘭克-瓦爾特.施泰因邁爾(Frank-Walter Steinmeier)所稱的炫耀武力，而是爲了警告普京：西方將不惜一切代價保護東歐的民主國家。
A new US administration should also consider providing defensive weapons to Ukraine and should ask the EU to deepen its economic commitment to the government of President Petro Poroshenko.
美國新政府還應考慮向烏克蘭提供防禦性武器，並促請歐盟深化對彼得羅.波羅申科(Petro Poroshenko)總統的政府的經濟承諾。
Such strengthening of the west’s position is the surest path to contain Mr Putin.
如此強化西方的立場是遏制普京的最靠譜方式。
At the same time, the US and Europe will need to keep open the lines to Moscow to seek Russian co-operation on crises that concern us all: Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea and Syria.
同時，美歐需要保持與莫斯科的溝通，以便在大家共同關注的危機問題上——伊朗、阿富汗、朝鮮和敘利亞——爭取俄羅斯的合作。
There is much more the new president will need to do to shore up the transatlantic alliance.
美國新總統還需做出更多努力來鞏固跨大西洋聯盟。
The US must re¬affirm its close intelligence and military ties with Britain while also deepening its strategic connection to Europe’s power centre in Germany.
美國必須再次確認其與英國之間緊密的情報和軍事紐帶，同時深化其與歐洲實力中心德國的戰略關係。
What many Europeans say they need most, however, is a return to stronger American leadership to support them in a time of crisis.
然而，許多歐洲人稱，他們最需要的是美國再次展現出更強大的領導能力，在危機時刻支持他們。
The next president will need to stand resolutely with the US’s European partners, not least against the challenge from Mr Putin.
下任美國總統將需要堅定地站在其歐洲夥伴一邊，尤其是在應對普京帶來的挑戰的時候。
Mrs Clinton would be such a president.
希拉里將成爲這樣的總統。
Her strong ties to the continent as well as her sturdy convictions and deep international experience could lead a revival of America’s transatlantic link with Europe.
她與歐洲的密切關係、她堅定的信念以及深厚的外交經驗有望幫助重振美歐間的跨大西洋關係。
Mr Trump, on the other hand, has demonstrated beyond doubt that he is unprepared to exercise these responsibilities.
另一方面，特朗普已經在超越合理懷疑的程度上表明，他對承擔這些責任絲毫沒有準備。
He has consistently devalued Nato and, with his public praise for Mr Putin, has undermined the embattled Ukrainian government.
他不停地貶低北約的作用，還對普京公開稱讚，令處境艱難的烏克蘭政府雪上加霜。
This is why so many European leaders hope fervently for a Clinton victory next week.
這就是爲什麼如此多的歐洲領導人熱切希望希拉里贏得大選。
She is the candidate who understands what all US presidents since Harry Truman have known — that America’s global fortunes depend in large part on the vital link with Europe, especially at times of crisis.
作爲總統候選人，她明白美國的全球運勢在很大程度上有賴於與歐洲的關鍵紐帶，尤其是在危機時期——這是自哈里.杜魯門(Harry Truman)以來歷任美國總統都認識到的。
