金正恩長兄金正男在馬來西亞遇襲身亡

Kim Jong Nam, the estranged older half-brother of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, was killed in an attack at Kuala Lumpur airport, Malaysian police confirmed on Tuesday, in an apparent assassination.

馬來西亞警方週二證實，朝鮮領導人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)關係疏遠的同父異母長兄金正男(Kim Jong Nam)在馬來西亞吉隆坡機場遇襲身亡。這是一起明顯的暗殺。

The 46-year-old was assaulted by a woman who covered his face with a cloth laced with liquid as he was waiting for a flight to Macau, said Fadzil Ahmat, a Malaysian police official. He was confirmed dead after being taken to hospital.

馬來西亞警方官員法茲?阿赫瑪特(Fadzil Ahmat)表示，46歲的受害人在等候飛往澳門的航班時，被一名女子用一塊沾滿液體的布矇住面部。他被送往醫院後證實死亡。

Kim was once considered an heir to the late Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s former leader, but his fortunes turned after he was arrested at Tokyo airport with a fake passport in 2001. He was apparently en route to Disneyland in Tokyo.

金正男一度被認爲是已故的朝鮮前領導人金正日(Kim Jong Il)的接班人，但2001年在東京機場因持有假護照被捕後，他的命運開始走下坡路。當時他顯然是要去東京的迪斯尼樂園。

Since rising to power following the death of his father in 2011, Kim Jong Un has moved ruthlessly to cement his standing as North Korea’s supreme leader. His uncle, Jang Sung Taek, was in 2013 purged from the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. North Korean state media later reported he was executed.

自2011年父親去世後開始掌權以來，金正恩一直無情地鞏固自己作爲朝鮮最高領袖的地位。2013年，他的姑父張成澤(Jang Sung Taek)被執政的朝鮮勞動黨開除黨籍。據朝鮮官方媒體後來報道，他已被處決。

If Pyongyang were proved to have orchestrated Kim’s death, “it means Kim Jong Un has absolute control over every nook and cranny of the North Korean system”, said Youngshik Bong, an authority on North Korea at Yonsei University in Seoul. “This is the final touch in consolidating power?.?.?.?there are no other checks and balances.”

如果平壤方面被證明策劃了金正男之死，“就說明金正恩對朝鮮體制的每個角落都擁有絕對控制”，首爾延世大學(Yonsei University)的朝鮮專家奉英植(Bong Young-shik)表示。“這是鞏固權力的最後一步……沒有任何其他制衡。”

But he said the development could mean the North Korean leader had now demonstrated his power, allowing him the latitude to strike a deal with US President Donald Trump without appearing weak.

但他表示，這一事態可能意味着朝鮮領導人已經展現出他的力量，這將讓他具有迴旋餘地，能夠與美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)達成協議，而不會顯得軟弱。

Pyongyang set off alarm bells on Sunday when it test fired a medium-range ballistic missile for the first time since Mr Trump’s inauguration in what observers saw as a calculated move to test the US leader.

平壤方面在週日試射一枚中程彈道導彈，這是其在特朗普就職以來首次試射彈道導彈，此舉敲響了警鐘，觀察人士認爲此舉是一個精心盤算的舉動，目的是試探美國領導人。

Mr Trump, who was hosting Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, at the time, responded only with a statement in support of the US’s “great ally” in Tokyo.

當時正在接待日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的特朗普只是迴應稱，支持美國的“偉大盟國”日本。

Dennis Wilder, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst who was Asia adviser to George W Bush, said there had long been rumours that Kim Jong Un wanted to kill his half brother. “He wants no alternatives among the North Korean elite to his rule,” said Mr Wilder. “It fits with the kind of vicious policies he has pursued internally.”

中央情報局(CIA)前分析師、曾擔任喬治?W?布什(George W Bush)的亞洲顧問的韋德寧(Dennis Wilder)表示，有關金正恩想要除掉同父異母長兄的傳言由來已久。“他希望在朝鮮的精英階層中沒有可以替代他的統治者地位的人選，”韋德寧表示。“這與他在國內推行的那種殘暴政策相符。”

If proven to have been the work of North Korea, the assassination is likely to further strain Pyongyang’s ties with China, which harboured Kim in Macau, where he lived in exile for years.

如果被證明是朝鮮官方所爲，這起暗殺事件可能會導致平壤方面與中國的關係進一步趨於緊張；流亡的金正男生前在中國的澳門生活了多年。

“Beijing is stuck. They don’t trust Kim [Jong Un] but they have no better options,” said Bill Bishop, a China expert who publishes the popular Sinocism newsletter on Chinese politics. “Beijing was livid when he killed his uncle, who was one of — if not the — key link with Beijing.”

“北京方面左右爲難。他們不信任金正恩，但他們沒有更好的選擇，”中國問題專家利明璋(Bill Bishop)表示，“北京方面曾對他殺死自己的姑父感到震怒，後者生前是平壤與北京之間的關鍵聯繫人之一，如果不是唯一聯繫人的話。”利明璋是有關中國政治的頗具人氣的通訊《Sinocism China Newsletter》的出版人。

Chris Johnson, another former top CIA analyst, said the assassination could complicate US efforts to deal with the mounting nuclear threat from North Korea. Mr Trump has stressed that dealing with Pyongyang would be one of his top priorities, but short of a pre-emptive strike, the US is heavily reliant on China to tackle the issue.

CIA前分析師克里斯?約翰遜(Chris Johnson)表示，這起暗殺可能使美國應對朝鮮核威脅的努力複雜化。特朗普曾強調，應對平壤方面將是他的首要任務之一，但是除非發動先發制人的打擊，否則美國嚴重依賴中國來處理這個問題。

“Given Kim Jong Nam’s longtime residency in Beijing and Macau, he presumably acted as a source of insight for the Chinese on how to interpret happenings inside North Korea,” said Mr Johnson. “With the earlier execution of Jang Sung Taek?.?.?.?Yong Nam’s demise could leave Beijing with very little feel for North Korean internal dynamics, and therefore more reluctant to push the North on the nuclear programme.”

“鑑於金正男長期居住在北京和澳門，他想必是爲中方解讀朝鮮國內動態提供見解的一個來源，”約翰遜表示，“在張成澤早已被處決的情況下……金正男身亡可能使北京方面不再能夠把握朝鮮的內部動態，因此更不願意在覈計劃問題上對朝鮮施壓。”

Kim was well known at the gambling tables of Macau. He spoke good English and chatted affably with reporters. Like his brothers, Kim grew up in a cloistered world but with privileged access to foreign films and luxury goods. Kim Han-sol, his son, attended university in Paris for about a year from September 2013.

金正男是澳門賭場的常客。他能說流利的英語，也願意和記者們親切交談。像弟弟們一樣，金正男在一個封閉世界長大，但擁有獲得奢侈品的特權，也能看外國電影。他的兒子金韓鬆(Kim Han-sol)自2013年9月在巴黎上了一年大學。