電力強勁 特斯拉是"終極動力股"嗎

Everything is coming up roses for Tesla . The electric car company is enjoying an almost-unimaginable run of good fortune and is still being hotly pursued by investors.

特斯拉（Tesla）正處在蜜運中。這家電動汽車公司的財富以不可思議的速度積聚，而投資者仍在熱烈地追捧它。

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At a time when the overall stock market is idling with the parking brake on, Tesla shares are on a tear. Since the beginning of the year, they have risen 80%. Currently at $262, the stock is selling at close to its all-time high and has a market cap of $32 billion.

在美國股市整體被“踩下剎車”的情況下，特斯拉的股價還在一路狂飆。自今年年初至今，其股價已經上漲了80%，目前每股約262美元，接近該公司有史以來的最高值，市值達到320億美元。

States are falling all over themselves to be chosen as the site for Tesla’s proposed $5 billion Gigafactoryto produce lithium ion batteries. California is competing with Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, and the bidding for the factory, which could employ up to 6,500 people, is said to be up to $500 million.

美國各州對特斯拉大獻殷勤，希望在其計劃投資50億美元興建的大型鋰電池工廠選址中勝出。這家工廠有可能解決多達6500人的就業。加利福尼亞州就正在與內華達、亞利桑那、新墨西哥和德克薩斯等州展開競爭，而吸引該廠落戶的條件據說是要給予5億美元的支持。

Tesla has an order backlog of $226 million. At the production run rate of 1000 cars a week expected at the end of 2014, that translates to a 30-week backlog.

特斯拉的積壓訂單達到2.26億美元。到2014年之前，特斯拉的生產速度大約爲每週1000臺，也就是說這些訂單需要30周才能消化完。

Tesla says it enjoys sales per square foot at its showrooms that are double that of Apple . The tech company is currently considered the industry leader.

特斯拉表示，在該公司的展廳裏，每平方英尺的面積帶來的銷售額是蘋果公司（Apple）的兩倍，而蘋果目前被公認爲是行業領軍者。

The valuation that all this good news is creating for Tesla is truly astonishing. A Tesla watcher named Zoltan Ban, writing in Seeking Alpha, figures that Tesla is already priced as if it sells several hundred thousand cars a year when in reality it will sell only about 35,000 in 2014. Another way of looking at this: At current prices, each car the company sells this year is valued at $1 million.

這些利好消息爲特斯拉帶來了極爲驚人的估值。一位名叫佐爾坦o班的特斯拉觀察人士在金融網站“尋找阿爾法“（Seeking Alpha）上指出，特斯拉現在的估值，相當於它每年已經能夠賣出幾十萬輛汽車，但實際上今年它只能賣出35,000多輛車。從另一個角度來說，特斯拉公司今年賣出的每一臺車，估值相當於高達100萬美元。

In other words, investors are paying far more for Tesla’s future promises than today’s performance by other luxury car manufacturers. Daimler, the manufacturer of Mercedes-Benz, sold more than 2.5 million vehicles last year and has a market cap of about $85 billion. So, although it sells 70 times more vehicles than Tesla, its market cap is less than three times greater.

這意味着投資者正爲特斯拉的未來前景投下重注，出價要遠遠高於對其他豪車廠商實際表現的評估。梅塞德斯-奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）的製造商戴姆勒（Daimler）去年售出了超過250萬輛車，市值約爲850億美元。所以，儘管戴姆勒的銷量是特斯拉的70多倍，但它的市值還不到特斯拉的3倍。

Usually sober-minded analysts, accustomed to the auto industry’s slow growth, seem to shed their inhibitions when it comes to Tesla. Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank has attached a $310 price target on the stock. Not to be out-done, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley established a $320 price target and calls Tesla it the “most important car company in the world”.

通常冷靜的分析師們早已習慣了汽車行業的緩慢增長，但是遇到特斯拉，他們就丟掉了一貫的謹慎。德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的分析師羅德o拉切給該股設定了310美元的目標價格。無獨有偶，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的分析師亞當o喬納斯也將特斯拉的目標股價定爲320美元，並稱它是“世界上最重要的汽車公司”。

Fuel for this latest burst of Tesla mania came from none other than Chairman and CEO Elon Musk in comments he made during an analyst call on July 31. The big news wasn’t that Tesla reported higher production for the second quarter and beat earnings estimates again.

在7月31日的分析師電話會議上，特斯拉的董事長兼CEO埃隆o穆斯克親手給“特斯拉熱”又添了一把柴。這次會議上爆出的“大新聞”並不是特斯拉第二季度產量再次提升並超過了收益預期。

Musk said he expects to be producing cars at a 100,000-a-year rate by the end of 2015.

而是穆斯克在會上表示，預計特斯拉到2015年底將實現10萬臺的年產量。

Selling that many cars would make Tesla larger than the U.S. arms of luxury makers like Lincoln and Porsche, both of which have more diverse product portfolios, long-established dealer networks, and refined strategies for marketing and advertising. Half the sales would come from the aging Model S sedan and the other half the new Model X seven-seat crossover that goes into production early next year.

如果這個目標真的能夠實現，屆時特斯拉的規模將超過林肯（Lincoln）和保時捷（Porsche）等豪車品牌的美國分支。這兩個老字號豪車品牌都有更多樣化的產品陣容、長期的經銷商網絡、成熟的營銷和廣告策略。特斯拉如果真的能賣出預期的數字，那麼其銷量的半數將來自現有的Model S轎車，其它一半則來自明年年初纔會量產的Model X七座跨界車。

This is not to take anything away from Tesla, which has demonstrated that it can create and manufacture a complex and sophisticated product with demonstrated customer appeal. But its own internal forecasts, as well as the swelling of its share price, are based on the expectation that the future will unspool in an orderly fashion identical to the recent past. That’s a dangerous assumption to make – for several reasons:

這裏並不是要給特斯拉澆一瓢冷水。它已經證明自己具有生產一款複雜、先進且外觀誘人的產品的能力。但無論是特斯拉自己的內部預測，還是投資人對其股票的追捧，都基於同樣一個預期，那就是特斯拉未來依然會延續最近的大熱勢頭。這是一種危險的假設，原因如下：

o Tesla is a car for rich people. With an average price of $85,000, it is safe to say that few Tesla owners are buying one to save money on fuel, and the car’s range limitations mean that a Tesla is never the only car in an owner’s garage. At some point, these same people will stop viewing Tesla as the flavor of the month, its order backlog will shrink, and Tesla will have to scrap for sales like other manufacturers.

特斯拉是一款富人車。在均價85,000美元的水平線上，可以說買特斯拉的人沒人會在意汽油錢。特斯拉在續航里程上的短板，也說明了它絕對不會是車主家裏的唯一一輛車。如果這些人的新鮮勁兒過去了，特斯拉的訂單儲備就會縮水，也會像其它廠商一樣需要爲銷量打拼。

The bigger Tesla gets, the more complex its operations become. Since it sells directly to customers and eschews franchised dealers, it will have to develop a network of service centers to handle repairs on the cars it sells. Its unusually generous warranty, which obligates it to buy back used cars for 50% of their original base price after three years, could create a second channel of used Teslas. “Tesla will be eating a lot of three-year-old cars that aren’t as sexy or rare as they were a year ago,” wrote one Seeking Alpha blogger. ‘To me, it sounds like a potential mess.”

o 特斯拉的規模越大，運營的複雜性就越強。由於它直接銷售給終端顧客，免去了特許經銷商的環節，它必須開發一個自己的服務中心網絡來進行售後維修保養。另外它獨特慷慨的保修條款規定，車主在使用三年後，可以以原價50%的價格將車賣還給特斯拉。這種做法可能會催生一個二手特斯拉的專門渠道。“尋找阿爾法”上的一位博主寫道：“等到車主覺得他們的車不像一年前那麼誘人和罕見，特斯拉可能會吃進大量有三年車齡的二手車。在我看來，這是個潛在的麻煩。”

o Battery power may turn out to be a transition technology. Cost reductions have been slow in coming, and Tesla needs a 30% improvement in order to build the $35,000 Model 3 it has promised for 2017. Toyota’s recent move was eye-opening. It is allowing a battery-supply deal with Tesla to expire and instead will redouble its work on hydrogen fuel cells. The cost of fuel cells is coming down faster than batteries and fuel cell proponents believe drivers will prefer a relatively rapid refuel with hydrogen to waiting hours to recharge their batteries.

電池電力可能最終被證明是一種過渡性技術。最近電池成本的降低速度已經放慢了，特斯拉曾經承諾要在2017年生產出價格在35,000美元左右的Model 3。要實現這個目標，特斯拉的電池成本需要下降30%。相比之下，豐田（Toyota）最近的舉動非常出人意料。它與特斯拉簽訂的電池供應協議即將期滿，但豐田並未續約，而是準備加倍投入研發氫燃料電池。燃料電池的成本下降速度要快於普通電池。而且燃料電池的擁躉們認爲，車主肯定會更喜歡充電速度相對更快的燃料電池，而不是要爲充電等上好幾個小時。

o Outside events can umer Reports, which raved about the Model S, reported a few “quirks” recently that included door handles that failed to activate and a center touch screen that went blank, blocking access to most of the car’s functions. has had trouble with its Model S too. More reports like that will dent Tesla’s heretofore shining reputation.

外部事件的影響。《消費者報告》（Consumer Reports）雜誌曾經對Model S大加吹捧，但最近該雜誌也報道了它的一些常見故障，包括門把手失效，中控觸屏白屏，導致車內大部分功能不能使用等等。汽車網站也找了Model S的麻煩。更多此類報告無疑會影響特斯拉到目前爲止非常正面的聲譽。

None of these potential clouds appear to darken the sunny view from Tesla headquarters in Palo Alto. Tesla is sticking with its middle term goal of building 500,000 cars a year by 2020. Much will depend on the ability of the Model X to maintain the current momentum – and mystique. Tesla has steeply ramped up spending on capital expenditures and R&D to make sure the launch, already a year behind schedule, is a success.

不過目前來看，這些潛在的烏雲似乎都沒有遮住特斯拉在帕洛阿爾託總部的陽光。特斯拉仍然堅持在2020年之前年產50萬輛汽車的中期目標。這在很大程度上要取決於Model X是否有能力維持當前的勢頭。特斯拉已經大大提高了資本和研發支出，以確保Model X的順利發佈（雖然已經推遲了一年）。

Morgan Stanley’s Jonas believes the Model X will sell more based on features like its upgraded infotainment system unique “falcon-wing” back-seat doors than fuel economy and he will be disappointed if the Model X doesn’t win every major car of the year award. He isn’t alone. So will Elon Musk and a whole lot of Tesla investors who pray that the momentum behind this amazing stock keeps building.

摩根士丹利的分析師喬納斯認爲，Model X的銷量將會更加可觀，但不是由於它的燃油經濟性，而是它升級後的信息娛樂系統，以及獨特的“鷹翼”式後車門。他還表示，如果Model X沒有贏得所有的年度車型大獎，他會非常失望。他並不是唯一一個這樣想的人。埃隆o穆斯克和其他很多祈禱特斯拉繼續保持當前勢頭的人當然也會這樣想。（財富中文網）