每個人都在想 詹皇的巔峯到底還有多長?

During his 15th NBA season, Cleveland Cavaliers star LeBron James is performing at a level that echoes the prime that saw him win four MVPs.

在他的第15個NBA賽季中，克利夫蘭騎士隊的球星勒布朗·詹姆斯在比賽中依舊錶現出極高的水準，可以媲美他贏得了4個MVPs時的最佳狀態。

As James nears his 33rd birthday later this month, his performance at that age stands up to any of his predecessors, including Michael Jordan's 1995-96 season that produced an MVP, a then-record 72 wins and a championship.

本月底，詹姆斯將迎來自己的33歲生日，他在這個年紀的表現足以跟那些偉大的前輩們相提並論，包括曾在1995 - 96賽季獲得的MVP，並取得創紀錄的72勝和總冠軍的邁克爾·喬丹。

(Because James entered the NBA directly out of high school, NBA experience isn't the best way to compare how he's aging to his peers. After all, Jordan's 15th year was actually his final one in the NBA at age 40.)

（因爲詹姆斯從高中直接進入NBA，關於球員老化，NBA其他球員的經驗對詹姆斯來說不是太實用。）畢竟，喬丹的第15年實際上是他40歲時在NBA的最後一年。

Given his age and the heavy minutes James has played since coming to the NBA at age 18, including extended playoff runs with trips to the NBA Finals each of the past seven years, his ability to stave off a decline in play has been improbable. Has James managed to break the aging curve that governs most NBA players?

考慮到他的年齡和詹姆斯在18歲時進入NBA的大量的出場時間，包括在過去7年因爲每一年都打到NBA總決賽中，這樣的季後賽時間更長，他在比賽中避免下滑的能力是不可能的。詹姆斯成功地打破了統治大多數NBA球員的老化曲線嗎?

Before this season, a look at James' all-in-one metrics during the regular season would have looked like a fairly typical NBA aging curve, albeit shifted with a far higher peak than virtually any player in league history has enjoyed.

在這個賽季之前，看看詹姆斯所有常規賽的表現，看起來就像一個典型的NBA老化曲線，雖然轉換時保持巔峯的時間比聯盟歷史上的任何球員都要長得多。

After a relatively poor rookie season — only by his high standards could winning Rookie of the Year and playing at an above-average level in the NBA as a teenager be considered relatively poor — James quickly leaped into superstardom and improved gradually from there. His four best seasons came from ages 24 through 28, a stretch interrupted only by a down performance from James in 2010-11, his first year with the Miami Heat. The best-fit curve suggests James peaking just before age 27, the expected time for an NBA player, and declining gently from there.

在經歷了一個相對錶現較差的新秀賽季後——也只有他，贏得了最佳新秀，而且打出高於NBA平均水平的水準，還會被人爲對他個人來說是相對較差的賽季——詹姆斯很快就一躍成爲超級明星，並逐漸從那裏獲得了進步。他的四個最佳賽季來自24歲到28歲，只有2010-11賽季在熱火的第一年，相對錶現較差。最合適的曲線表明，詹姆斯在27歲之前就達到了頂峯，並且可能從27歲開始，就慢慢的開始下滑。

The aging curve gets a bit more complicated when we consider James' playoff performance. Here's how that looks using the same chart:

當我們考慮詹姆斯的季後賽表現時，老化的曲線變得更加複雜。下面是如何使用同樣的圖表:

With the notable exception of 2009, when a limited Cleveland team lost in the Eastern Conference finals despite James delivering the best player win percentage in modern playoff history (since 1977-78, the first year individual turnovers were tracked), the curve now flattens out. James' past two postseasons have been about as good as any in his career outside of 2009. This is especially clear when we plot regular season and playoff performance together:

除了2009年的一個明顯的例外，儘管捉襟見肘的騎士隊在東部決賽中鎩羽而歸，詹姆斯還是打出來了有史以來最好的球員勝利貢獻值(自1977 - 78年以來，聯盟開始記錄個人失誤)09年以後，曲線又開始平穩。詹姆斯在過去兩個賽季的表現和他在2009年之外的職業生涯一樣好。當我們一起把常規賽和季後賽都考慮進去的時候，這一點特別清楚:

There's strong evidence to suggest James mastered the art of coasting after rejoining the Cavaliers. As Brian Windhorst noted before the season using research by our former colleague Tom Haberstroh, James has consistently been better in the second half of the past four seasons -- a split that wasn't previously apparent.

有有力的證據表明，詹姆斯在重新加入騎士隊之後，已經掌握了保持狀態平穩的藝術。正如賽季前布萊恩·溫霍斯特(Brian Windhorst)用前同事湯姆·哈伯斯特羅(Tom Haberstroh)所做的研究指出，詹姆斯在過去四個賽季的後半段一直表現得更好——這一分水線以前並不明顯。

This pacing is, of course, its own kind of concession to aging. Surely, if James felt he could still play at his playoff level over a full 82 games, he would have done it. Nonetheless, it suggests that James' age-related decline is more complex than charting his regular-season performance made it seem.

當然，這種節奏是對衰老的一種調整。當然，如果詹姆斯覺得他能82場場場都打出季後賽級別的高水準，他就會這麼做。儘管如此，這表明詹姆斯與年齡有關的衰退，比他常規賽表現的圖表更看起來複雜。

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