FT社评 希腊和欧洲必须修复信任
For a cash-strapped government, pleasing both one’s creditors and one’s voters is always tricky. The letter sent this week from Greece’s Syriza government to the eurogroup of finance ministers was a list of pragmatic concessions wrapped in the language of ideological defiance.
![FT社评 希腊和欧洲必须修复信任 FT社评 希腊和欧洲必须修复信任](https://i1.yyxkb.com/131b9ea15ce070/524bd0/131a89b451/524bd0f70bb13e.jpg)
The proposals are intended to win Greece an extension of the current bailout programme for four months, whereupon a comprehensive revision of the terms and conditions of the rescue can take place.
这些提议旨在为希腊赢得一个让步:即把目前的纾困计划延长4个月,从而可以全面修改纾困的条款和条件。Overall, its tone seems reasonable and represents a welcome retreat from unrealistic promises Syriza has made to its voters. Yet the cool response to the letter from the other two creditor institutions in what Greece no longer wants to call the “troika” — the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank — highlights how much trust has been damaged in the course of fractious negotiations.
整体而言,该信件的语气似乎是理性的,代表着希腊激进左翼联盟放弃了向其选民做出的不切实际的承诺,这值得欢迎。然而,其两大债权人机构——国际货币基金组织(IMF)和欧洲央行(ECB)的冷淡回应突显出,在极不顺利的谈判过程中,信任被破坏得多么厉害。希腊现在已不愿意再把IMF、欧洲央行和欧盟(European Union)称为“三驾马车”。
Having sensibly left most of the business of negotiating the programme to the eurogroup, the ECB nonetheless felt the need to raise the alarm about the weakness ofGreece’s promises. In particular it issued a cryptic warning about the need to “stabilise the payment culture”, assumed to be concern about plans for a freeze on banks foreclosing on mortgages. The IMF said it was worried about the failure to make firm commitments in a number of areas, including reforms to Greece’s chaotic VAT regime and sclerotic labour market.
欧洲央行虽然明智地将纾困计划的大部分谈判交给了欧元集团,但仍感到有必要对希腊的承诺不力提出警告。尤其是它大有深意地警告有必要“稳固偿债文化”,这被认为是对冻结银行抵押贷款止赎权的计划感到担忧。IMF表示,它对希腊未能在许多领域做出坚定承诺感到担忧,包括改革其混乱的增值税体系以及僵化的劳动力市场。These misgivings largely reflect the dysfunctional nature of the negotiations as well as policy. Loose talk from the Greek side and erratic aggression from parts of the eurogroup have diminished faith in any promise not written out in minute detail, copied in triplicate and signed in blood.
这些担忧很大程度上反映出纾困谈判和政策的失灵。希腊的信口开河以及欧元集团一些人飘忽不定的咄咄逼人态度,使得人们对凡是没有事无巨细、一式三份和以血立誓写下的承诺,都不再信任。Some of this debate is better postponed until the four-month extension is over and a more comprehensive long-term deal is negotiated. The focus in the interim should be on ensuring that Athens does not reverse decisions already implemented, such as reducing the minimum wage, nor rule out areas for reform in the future.
一些辩论最好延迟至4个月延长期结束、以及更为全面的长期协议达成之后。这期间的重点应该放在确保希腊不会推翻已经实施的决定,比如降低最低工资标准,同时确保其不排除未来的改革领域。Privatisation is a case in point. The letter accepts that state asset sales currently in progress will go ahead. This presumably includes the rest of the Port of Piraeus, the container terminal successfully run by Chinese company Cosco since its sale in 2008. But Panagiotis Lafazanis, energy minister, has opposed selling off the state electricity company and power grid distributor.
私有化就是一个焦点。希腊激进左翼联盟在信中表示,将会继续推进当前开展的国有资产出售事宜。这些资产可能包括比雷埃夫斯港的剩余资产——这个集装箱码头自2008年向中国中远(Cosco)出售特许经营权以来被运营得非常成功。但希腊能源部长帕纳约蒂斯•拉法赞尼斯(Panagiotis Lafazanis)反对出售该国国有电力公司和电网。It would be a serious mistake at this stage to allow the assumption to take hold that there will be no more privatisations throughout the life of the programme. Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister, has a point that selling off state assets in haste during an economic downturn is not a good way of securing a good price and promoting future efficiency. But Cosco’s success shows that privatisations can bring in better management and fresh investment. The Syriza government seems to think that, through joint ventures and other actions short of privatisation, it can have the same investment and efficiency. It is very likely mistaken.
在这个阶段让人们以为在纾困计划期间不会有更多的私有化计划,是一个严重的错误。希腊财长亚尼斯•瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)认为,在经济低迷期间仓促出售国有资产很难卖出理想价格和提升未来的效率。但中远的成功表明,私有化可以提高管理水平并带来新的投资。希腊激进左翼联盟政府似乎认为,通过创立合资企业和其他非私有化举措,希腊可以获得同样的投资和效率。这种观点极有可能是错误的。The troika are right to be suspicious of Syriza’s offer and, as Friday’s vote in the Bundestag underlined, have their own domestic constituencies to placate. But demanding a degree of detail now that can wait until four months’ time risks adding to their own reputation for caprice. The agreement must consolidate the reform done so far and provide a platform for more to be done in future. There is a deep and damaging lack of trust between Greece and the troika. A simple and robust interim deal now may help to rebuild it.
“三驾马车”对希腊激进左翼联盟政府的提议感到怀疑是正确的,正如上周五德国联邦议院(Bundestag)的投票突显的那样,他们也需要安抚自己的选民。但如果现在就要求敲定本来可以等待4个月的某种细节,有可能让他们自己落下反复无常的名声。协议必须整合迄今已经完成的改革,并为未来更多的改革提供平台。希腊和“三驾马车”之间严重缺乏信任,这是非常有害的。一份简单而扎实的过渡协议可能有助于修复信任。