可再生能源的顛覆威力

After years of hope and promise, renewables are beginning to establish a presence in the energy market free of the requirement for heavy subsidies or other policy interventions. The International Energy Agency’s latest review of the renewables sector records the remarkable progress that is being made, particularly in terms of falling costs.

在多年的希望和承諾之後，可再生能源開始在能源市場佔得一席之地，而無需大量補貼或者其他政策干預。國際能源署(IEA)對可再生能源行業的最新研究報告，展示了這個行業正在取得的顯著進展，尤其是就不斷降低成本而言。

Renewables cannot yet transform the entire energy business but in electricity they are becoming deeply disruptive to the established competitive order.

可再生能源還無法轉變整個能源行業，但在電力領域，它們開始對現有的競爭秩序產生深刻的顛覆性影響。

The IEA’s paper describes a year of remarkable progress and presents a forecast of continued growth over the next five years. The progress centres on solar power, where capacity grew by 50 per cent last year and is set to add another 660 GW by 2022. Solar and wind are beginning materially to supplement the supply from hydro.

國際能源署的報告描述了可再生能源在一年來取得的顯著進展，並預測接下來5年可再生能源還將持續增長。進展集中在太陽能發電方面，去年太陽能發電裝機容量增長50%，到2022年還將新增660吉瓦(GW)。太陽能和風能發電正開始起到實質性地補充水力發電的作用。

Two-thirds of additional global power generating capacity in 2016 came from renewables. By 2022, continued growth should give them 30 per cent of the global power market with a total growth in capacity of over 920 GW. China is the market leader, rapidly adding a strong manufacturing capability to its technical strength to create an industry that is producing a dramatic reduction in costs.

2016年，全球新增的發電裝機容量有三分之二來自可再生能源。到2022年，可再生能源的持續增長將使其拿下全球電力市場的30%，裝機容量增加總量達到逾920吉瓦。作為市場領導者的中國，迅速將強大的製造能力與技術實力結合起來，打造出一個大幅壓低成本的產業。

The IEA’s forecast comes in sharp contrast to its previous caution on renewables. Five years ago, it produced a report suggesting we were entering the golden age of gas — encouraging some to invest in a range of very big projects, many relying on the expensive process of liquefaction. The projections of gas consumption made then were significantly overoptimistic. Actual growth has been modest, and the surge in supply has forced prices down.

國際能源署的這一預測與該機構以往對可再生能源的謹慎態度形成了鮮明對比。5年前，該機構發表報告稱，我們正踏入天然氣的黃金時代——這鼓勵一些企業投資於一系列龐大的項目，其中許多項目依賴成本高昂的液化過程。當時對天然氣消費量的增長預測顯然過度樂觀。實際增長是有限的，而供應量激增壓低了價格。

Is this projection of renewables growth more credible, and if so what does it mean for the global energy mix, for competing sources of supply such as gas, coal and nuclear and for climate change?

此次對可再生能源的增長預測是否更為可信？假設如果真如此，這對全球能源結構，對天然氣、煤炭和核能等競爭供能來源，以及對氣候變化都意味着什麼？

To the first of those questions the answer is yes. Both solar and wind have made in gains in the last two years that transform their prospects.

對第一個問題的回答是肯定的。過去兩年，太陽能和風能都取得了足以轉變自身前景的進步。

China accounted for 40 per cent of the global growth in renewables, surging ahead of the targets set in its 13th five-year plan for the period to 2020. Thanks to technology and mass production, costs have fallen dramatically, particularly in solar. As a result, China accounts for half of global solar consumption and some 60 per cent of global solar cell-manufacturing capacity.

中國貢獻了40%的全球可再生能源增長，大幅超過其在第十三個五年規劃（2016-2020年）中設定的目標。得益於技術和規模生產，成本大幅降低，尤其是太陽能。其結果是，中國佔全球太陽能消費量的一半，佔全球太陽能面板製造產能的60%左右。

Wind, which is perhaps slightly neglected in the IEA’s report, has also made great gains in both productivity and costs. The latest wind auctions found prices as low as ￡57.50 for the new Hornsea 2 project in the North Sea. That cost does not include the back-up necessary for when the wind fails to blow but even if that were included the net result would be a price of power well below the ￡ 92.50 per MW/hr cost of new nuclear. Together, wind and solar are setting a new competitive benchmark.

在國際能源署的報告中有點被忽視的風能，近年也在生產率和成本上取得了長足的進步。在最近的風能拍賣上，北海新風電項目Hornsea 2的電價低至每兆瓦小時(MW/hr) 57.5英鎊。這一成本不包括在無風的情況下需要的備用發電能力的成本，但就算計入這一項，最終的成本也遠低於新建核電站每兆瓦小時92.5英鎊的電價。風能和太陽能共同設定了新的競爭基準。

Hydro is also neglected but is just as important given the strong base and growth potential, especially in areas such as south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

水電也被這份報告忽略了，但考慮到其強大的基數和增長潛力，尤其是在南亞和撒哈拉以南非洲地區，這類可再生能源也同樣重要。

The IEA’s projection that renewables capacity can grow worldwide by more than 40 per cent over the next five years looks reasonable and could be even higher if policy makers and regulators can resolve the challenge of growing supplies from dispersed sources, including businesses producing their own power and selling any surplus into the grid. The old, dying model uses just a few central sources.

國際能源署預測，全球範圍內可再生能源的發電裝機容量將在未來5年增長逾40%，這看起來是合理的，如果政策制定者和監管機構能夠解決發展分散供電來源的挑戰，包括企業自行發電、並將剩餘電力出售給電網，這個數字還可能更高。正在被淘汰的舊模式使用為數不多的中央供電來源。

The growth of renewables will, of course, have some uncomfortable consequences for existing suppliers. Electricity demand is growing but additional low-cost sources will displace competing fuels. Coal is the most vulnerable, especially where emissions are regulated. But gas will also lose market share and in some places will be relegated to a balancing fuel, topping up demand when needed. Even that role will be threatened if storage technology can solve the problems of intermittency.

當然，可再生能源的增長會對現有供應商帶來一些不太愉快的影響。電力需求正在增長，但新增的低成本來源將取代與之競爭的燃料。煤炭是最容易受到影響的，尤其是在排放受到監管的地方。但天然氣也將失去市場份額，而且在一些地方將會降級為用來保持發電量平衡的燃料，在有需要的時候提供備份發電能力。但如果儲能技術可以解決可再生能源發電間斷性的問題，連天然氣的這種角色都會受到威脅。

The advances in renewables change the market structure and open up prospects in many countries. For instance, distributed off-grid solar power generation in areas such as India and sub-Saharan Africa could lift millions of people out of subsistence poverty. The IEA’s estimate is that up to 70m more people could be provided with basic electricity services in their homes over the next five years.

可再生能源的進步改變了市場結構，在許多國家打開了新的前景。比如，印度和撒哈拉以南非洲等地區的分佈式脱網太陽能發電，能夠讓數百萬人脱離生存貧困。國際能源署估計，接下來5年，將有7000多萬人首次在家裏用上基本電力服務。

So, in terms of the electricity market we are at a moment of significant transition. The economics of every other potential source of supply will be measured against the falling costs of wind and solar.

因此，就電力市場而言，我們處在一個重大轉變時刻。其他每一種潛在供電來源的經濟性，都將與風能和太陽能發電不斷下降的成本作比較。

As a business proposition, renewables look set to advance and, given China’s dominance, radical restructuring of the rest of the sector looks essential to create genuine global competition. In Europe and the US there is too much fragmentation and too few economies of scale. Supply chains are not well integrated and there is too little long-term capital to support the possible growth.

作為一個商業提議，可再生能源看起來還將繼續發展，同時考慮到中國的主導地位，要建立真正的全球競爭，對該行業的其他部分進行大規模重構看起來必不可少。在歐洲和美國，可再生能源的碎片化過於嚴重，規模經濟嚴重不足。供應鏈也沒有得到很好的整合，支持潛在增長的長期資本太少。

But these are all problems of success and can be sorted out. Renewables are no longer an afterthought in the energy business. They are a growing, competitive sector in their own right, and a source of disruption and risk to the incumbents.

但這些都是與成功相伴的問題，是能夠解決的。可再生能源不再是能源業務中一件被人事後想起來的事情，而是一個處於成長期、有競爭力的行業，給現有能源供應商帶來了顛覆和風險。

It is important, however, to maintain a sense of proportion. Wind and solar are focused almost entirely on the production of electricity, which represents around 40 per cent of final energy demand worldwide and accounts for a slightly higher proportion of total emissions.

然而，保持一種比例觀念很重要。風能和太陽能幾乎完全被用於發電，而電力佔全球最終能源需求的40%左右，目前在總排放量中所佔比例略高一些。

The main areas of energy consumption — heat, transport beyond light vehicles and industrial use including the production of steel, cement and petrochemicals — are as yet largely unaffected. In some of those areas electrification is possible, if expensive. In others any change in the energy supply mix seems a long way off. What is happening in renewables is a substantial advance, but it is not the end of the story.

能源消費的主要領域——供暖；輕型車輛以外的交通工具；以及生產鋼鐵、水泥和石化產品等工業用途——還基本不受影響。在上述這些領域中，有一些在理論上可以電氣化（儘管可能成本高昂）。在其他一些領域，能源供應結構的任何改變都是遙遠未來的事情。可再生能源當前取得了重大進步，但這還不是故事的結束。