美國GDP連續兩季度下降 預示美國經濟開始衰退

美國作爲世界強國，其經濟的發展影響着整個世界。近日，美國商務部日前宣佈，美國第一季度年化國內生產總值下降1.6%，而第二季度下降0.9%。從非官方角度來看，這預示着美國陷入經濟衰退。跟着滬江英語一起來看一下什麼情況吧。

The US economy shrank again in the last three months, unofficially signaling the start of a recession.

過去三個月美國經濟再次縮水，從非官方的角度來看，這預示着美國經濟開始衰退。

The commerce department announced Thursday that gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of the price of goods and services – decreased at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter after falling at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first three months.

繼第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)下降1.6%之後，美國商務部7月28日宣佈，第二季度GDP下降了0.9%。國內生產總值是對商品和服務價值的廣義衡量指標。

The bad news will be a major blow for the Biden administration as it prepares for a tough midterm election season. White House officials have tried to tamp down talk of a recession, arguing that many parts of the economy remain strong.

這一噩耗對於正準備應對局勢嚴峻的中期選舉的拜登政府是一個沉重打擊。白宮官員試圖平息有關經濟衰退的傳言，堅稱經濟的多個方面仍保持強勁態勢。

The growth rate stands in marked contrast to the robust 6.9% annual increase in GDP recorded in the final quarter of 2021 when the economy roared back from Covid shutdowns.

二季度數據與2021年第四季度6.9%的GDP增長率形成了鮮明對比，當時美國經濟正從新冠疫情中復甦。

The fast pace of growth contributed to soaring inflation – now running at 40-year highs – and the Federal Reserve’s decision to sharply increase interest rates in order to bring down prices.

美國經濟快速增長致使出現40年以來最嚴重的通脹，美聯儲決定大幅上調利率以打壓物價。

The changing economic environment was reflected in the GDP report. Consumer spending – the largest driver of the economy – slowed over the quarter but remained positive, rising 1% on an annual basis. Residential fixed investment, or home construction, dropped 14% on an annual basis and slowing business inventories, goods produced but not yet sold by businesses, dragged down the GDP number.

二季度的GDP數據反映出美國當前持續變化的經濟環境。作爲經濟最大驅動力的消費者支出在二季度減緩，但仍保持積極態勢，年化增長率達到1%。居民固定資產投資(即商品房建設)卻下跌了14%，而企業庫存則在拖累GDP增長率。

Two quarters of negative GDP growth are widely regarded as a signal that the economy has gone into recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end. While the GDP figures will play into the NBER’s final verdict, it also looks at a wider range of economic factors, including the jobs market, and is unlikely to give its decision soon.

GDP連續兩個季度負增長被普遍視爲經濟陷入衰退的一個信號。然而，美國經濟衰退與否，最終還需要美國國家經濟研究局(NBER)裁定宣佈。NBER的最終裁決會考慮GDP數據，也會考慮就業市場等更廣泛的經濟指標，因此不會很快做出裁決。

"The 0.9% annualized fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but doesn’t mean the economy is in recession,” said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics. “That said, the details show that higher rates and surging inflation are weighing on underlying demand, and we expect only a muted rebound in economic growth over the second half of the year.”

凱投宏觀資深美國經濟學家安德魯·亨特表示：“美國GDP第二季度下降0.9%，這個數據令人失望，但並不意味着美國經濟陷入衰退。即便如此，有細節表明，利率上調和通脹飆升對潛在需求產生了壓力，美國經濟在下半年僅可能出現溫和反彈。”

In the meantime, pressure remains on the Biden administration. Surveys of consumer confidence are falling as recession fears grow and Joe Biden’s overall and economic approval poll numbers are at the lowest levels of his presidency.

與此同時，拜登政府仍面臨壓力。調查發現，隨着對衰退的擔憂加劇，消費者信心受損，拜登的總體支持率及其經濟政策的支持率已跌至任內最低水平。

In a statement, Biden said it was “no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.”

拜登在一份聲明中表示，隨着美聯儲採取行動降低通脹，經濟放緩不足爲奇。他還辯稱，在面對歷史性全球挑戰的情況下，美國經濟仍然處於良性軌道，過了這個過渡階段，未來經濟會變得更加強大和穩定。

Republicans countered that the report shows “Democrats’ reckless economic policies are destroying our economy”.

共和黨人反駁稱，GDP報告顯示，民主黨不計後果的經濟政策正在摧毀美國經濟。

The latest GDP figures came a day after the Fed announced another three-quarter of a percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rates as it fights to tame inflation.

最新GDP數據發佈前一天，美聯儲爲遏制通貨膨脹，宣佈再上調基準利率75個百分點。

Prices rose at an annual rate of 9.1% in the year to June, driven up by soaring costs for fuel, food and shelter.

在能源、食品價格和居住成本持續攀升的情況下，截至6月，美國消費者價格指數(CPI)上漲9.1%。

While parts of the US economy remain strong – most notably the jobs market – the Covid pandemic continues to play havoc with global supplies and the war in Ukraine has pushed up energy prices.

雖然美國經濟的部分領域仍然在強勁增長，尤其是就業市場，但新冠肺炎疫情持續破壞全球供應鏈，俄烏軍事衝突致使能源價格飆升。

The confusing economic outlook has triggered sell-offs in stock markets around the world and led some economists to predict a recession is coming. Nearly 70% of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times last month predicted the US economy will tip into a recession next year.

對經濟前景的恐慌引發了全球股票拋售，一些經濟學家預測衰退即將到來。6月，《金融時報》對近七成頂尖學術經濟學家進行了民意調查，他們認爲美國經濟在2023年將陷入衰退。

Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he did not believe the US was now in a recession. But he said the Fed was prepared to keep raising rates in order to bring prices back down and that it was inevitable that such a move would slow the economy and affect the job market. “Price stability is what makes the whole economy work,” said Powell.

7月27日，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示，美國經濟並未陷入衰退，美聯儲已準備繼續加息，以使物價回落，而這將不可避免地會減緩經濟增長，影響就業市場。他還表示，價格穩定是整個經濟運行的動力。

雖然是美國經濟衰退，但是其實與我們也是息息相關的。大家要多瞭解世界新聞，與此同時提升自己，這樣才能夠不被快速變化的世界所淘汰。