全球股市創20年來最差開年紀錄大綱

More than $2.3tn was wiped off global stocks this week as China’s slowing economy and currency depreciations spooked investors around the world, leading to the worst start to a year for Markets in at least two decades.

由於全球投資者對中國經濟增長放緩和人民幣貶值感到驚慌，上週全球股市蒸發2.3萬億美元，創下了至少20年來最差的新年開局。

A robust US jobs report, which added a stronger-than-expected 292,000 extra jobs in December, allayed some concerns over US economic growth on Friday but failed to rescue the grim week for financial markets.

美國12月非農就業報告好於預期，增加了29.2萬個工作崗位，減輕了對美國經濟增長狀況的擔憂，但未能將整個金融市場從嚴峻的一週中拯救出來。

The catalyst for this week’s market turmoil has been China’s plunging stock market and weakening currency. Beijing’s powerful influence over financial markets this week underlines for investors how the country’s policy decisions reverberate across the global stage.

上週引發全球市場動盪的誘因是中國股市暴跌以及人民幣走弱。北京對金融市場的巨大影響力提醒投資者，中國的政策決定會在世界舞臺上產生多大反響。

“This heightened sensitivity of risk assets to Chinese policy is a relatively new phenomenon,” said Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management. “We can see how even relatively small falls in the Chinese [renminbi] … are having a major impact on global markets.”

瑞銀財富管理(UBS Wealth Management)全球首席投資官馬克黑費爾(Mark Haefele)說：“風險資產對中國的政策敏感性上升是一個相對較新的現象。我們可以看到人民幣即使出現相對較小的下跌……也會對全球市場產生重大影響。”

After initially climbing on the jobs report, the S&P 500 sagged to take its loss for the week to about 6 per cent — its worst start to a year on record — as it briefly suffered a technical correction, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The index has lost more than $1tn so far this year.

美國就業報告公佈後，標普500指數上週五先升後降。標普道瓊斯指數公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)數據顯示，正在經歷短暫技術性調整的標普500指數全周跌幅約6%——這是有記錄以來最差的開年。該指數一週內蒸發了1萬億美元以上。

Every major European stock market also fell again on Friday.

上週五歐洲所有主要股市也再次下跌。

Chinese stocks managed to stabilise at the end of a turbulent week after authorities scrapped a controversial circuit-breaker and lifted the daily currency fix for the first time in nine days.

隨着中國當局取消了有爭議的熔斷機制，並且9個交易日裏第一次上調人民幣匯率中間價，中國股市終於在上週五站穩，結束了動盪的一週。

The FTSE All-World index has lost a total of 6.1 per cent this week, making it the worst five-day start to a new year since at least 1994, when the index was established, and the worst week overall since 2011. More than $2.3tn was lopped off the index.

富時環球指數(FTSE All-World Index)上週累計下跌6.1%，從1994年該指數創建以來，創下了開年頭5天的最差記錄，也是自2011年以來最差的一週。富時環球指數上週共損失2.3萬億美元。

“China is playing a bigger and bigger role in global markets,” said Win Thin, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “This is the new reality and markets have to accept that.”

布朗兄弟哈里曼(Brown Brothers Harriman)新興市場貨幣策略部全球主管Win Thin表示：“中國在全球市場中扮演越來越大的角色。這是一個新現實，市場必須接受這一點。”

Chinese volatility has complicated the outlook for money managers already dealing with tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the start of a US interest rate tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve.

中國的波動性使基金經理面對更復雜的前景，本來伊朗與沙特關係緊張、美聯儲開啓加息週期就已經給他們帶來了新風險。

“Investors are fearful of many factors as the negative narrative gains traction generating a sense of malaise,” said Tobias Levkovich, an equity strategist with Citi. “There is some fairly impressive good news but it seems to be overshadowed by headline risks including recent geopolitical ones.”

花旗集團(Citigroup)股票策略師託拜斯萊夫科維奇(Tobias Levkovich)表示：“投資者擔心諸多因素，這種負面的消息會吸引注意，產生一種不安感。其實還有一些相當振奮人心的好消息，但媒體大肆報道的包括近期地緣政治事件等風險完全蓋過了這些消息。”

Interest rate futures indicate that investors are still discounting the chances of the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates another four times this year as planned, despite the unexpectedly strong unemployment data released on Friday.

從利率期貨市場走勢可見，投資者仍認爲美聯儲今年按計劃再加息四次的可能性不大，儘管上週五發布的就業數據意外強勁。

Some fund managers and analysts argue that the developing world — and China in particular — could be the final stage of a three-part rolling global crisis that began in the US in 2007 and then moved to the eurozone in 2010. Emerging market exchange rates took another dive after the strong US jobless report lifted the dollar, sending the JPMorgan Emerging Market Currency index to a new all-time low.

一些基金經理和分析師認爲，2007年始於美國、2010年轉移至歐元區的全球經濟危機將分三個階段上演，最後一個階段將發生在發展中國家，尤其是中國。上週五，在美國強勁的就業報告提升美元匯率之後，新興市場貨幣的匯率再次下跌，使摩根大通新興市場貨幣指數(JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index)跌至新的歷史低點。

Natural resource prices have also fallen into an even deeper funk due to concerns over slowing Chinese demand, with the Bloomberg Commodity index tumbling to a fresh 17-year low. The WTI and Brent crude oil prices have both fallen to about $33 a barrel this week, the lowest since 2004.

由於中國需求放緩的擔憂，自然資源價格也進一步下滑，彭博大宗商品指數(Bloomberg Commodity Index)跌至17年以來的低點。美國西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)和布倫特原油價格上週都跌至約每桶33美元，這是自2004年以來的最低水平。

Mr Thin said Chinese policymakers had “mishandled” its currency management, and pointed out that “in the absence of communication, markets assume the worst”. But he argued that investors were overreacting to the moves and cautioned against extrapolating too much from a handful of trading days.

Win Thin表示，中國政策制定者的匯率管理“失當”，並指出“在缺乏溝通的情況下，市場會抱着最壞的假設”。但他主張，投資者對政策制定者的舉措反應過度，並告誡投資者不要過多依賴從少數交易日的行情來進行推斷。

“Markets are panicking and lurching from one concern to the next, but we cannot judge the year as a whole by the first week,” he said. “We shouldn’t throw in the towel quite yet.”

“市場正處在恐慌之中，一會兒擔心這個，一會兒擔心那個，但我們不能靠第一週來判斷全年走勢，”他說，“現在我們還不到認輸的時候。”