如何預知“不可預知”的災禍
When Nassim Nicholas Taleb was a teenager in Lebanon in 1975, an ethnic civil war broke out. Locals were baffled. They had thought they lived in a “stable paradise”. Once the unforeseen catastrophe began, even Taleb’s grandfather, the deputy prime minister, “did not seem to know what was going to happen any more than his driver, Mikhail”, wrote Taleb in his 2007 classic, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
1975年，生活在黎巴嫩的納西姆?尼古拉斯?塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)十幾歲時，一場民族內戰爆發。當地人對此感到困惑。他們原本以爲，他們生活在一個“安穩的樂園”裏。塔勒布在他2007年的經典著作《黑天鵝：如何應對不可預知的未來》(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)中寫道，當這場誰也沒有料到的災難爆發時，甚至連塔勒布的祖父、當時的副總理“對於未來會發生什麼似乎也不比他的司機米哈伊爾(Mikhail)知道的多。”
In 1940, when Daniel Kahneman was a Jewish boy living in Paris, the Germans invaded France. Kahneman’s family decided to stay put. Then came the Holocaust. While the family was in hiding, Kahneman’s father could not get treatment for his diabetes, and died. Kahneman was left wondering why humans fail to foresee catastrophe.
1940年，當丹尼爾?卡內曼(Daniel Kahneman)是一個居住在巴黎的猶太小男孩時，德國入侵法國。卡內曼的家人決定留下。接着猶太人大屠殺(Holocaust)來了。全家人躲了起來，但他的父親因無法得到糖尿病治療而死去。卡內曼開始思考爲什麼人類無法預知災難。
Black Swan has just been reissued. Almost simultaneously, Michael Lewis has published The Undoing Project, about Kahneman’s intellectual collaboration with fellow psychologist Amos Tversky. Both books share an argument: people make bad judgments and terrible predictions. It’s a timely point. The risk of some kind of catastrophe — armed conflict, natural disaster, and/or democratic collapse — appears to have risen. The incoming US president has talked about first use of nuclear weapons, and seems happy to let Russia invade nearby countries. Most other big states are led by militant nationalists. Meanwhile, the polar ice caps are melting fast. How can we fallible humans avert catastrophe?
《黑天鵝》剛剛再版發行。幾乎同時，邁克爾?劉易斯(Michael Lewis)出版了《思維解謎》(The Undoing Project)一書，寫的是卡內曼與同爲心理學家的阿莫斯?特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)的學術合作。這兩本著作提出了一個共同的觀點：人們會做出糟糕的判斷和預測。這是一個及時的觀點。發生某種災難的風險（武裝衝突、自然災難、民主崩潰）似乎已上升。新任美國總統提到過首次使用核武器，而且他似乎樂於讓俄羅斯侵略鄰近的國家。多數其他大國由好戰民族主義者領導。與此同時，極地冰蓋正快速融化。我們這些容易犯錯的人類如何能夠避免災難呢？
Today’s elites are often mocked for failing to foresee the financial crisis of 2008 but, in fact, such blindness is standard. In 1914, few people expected the first world war: the historian Niall Ferguson has shown that bond prices held up that summer, meaning that investors didn’t foresee higher government borrowing. Forecasters also missed the Holocaust, China’s Cultural Revolution and September 11.
如今的精英經常被嘲笑未能預知2008年的金融危機，但實際上，這種失明是司空見慣的。1914年，幾乎無人預測到第一次世界大戰：歷史學家尼爾?弗格森(Niall Ferguson)指出，那個夏天，債券價格持續上漲，這意味着投資者沒有預測到政府借款增加。預測者也沒能預見猶太人大屠殺、中國文化大革命以及9?11恐怖襲擊。
Our western generation is particularly ill-equipped to foresee catastrophes, because our countries have hardly experienced any since 1945. (We tend to forget our various close shaves with nuclear war, accidental and otherwise.) Now we are like Taleb’s famous turkey. Every day, he gets fed by a nice farmer. The turkey’s risk analysts make a forecast: based on past trends, he will keep getting fatter. Then, just before Thanksgiving?.?.?.?
我們西方這一代人尤其沒有能力預知災難，因爲我們的國家自1945年以來幾乎從未經歷過任何災難。（我們往往會忘記與意外或非意外核戰爭的各種擦肩而過。）如今，我們就像塔勒布書中那只有名的火雞。它每天由一位善良的農民飼養。火雞的風險分析人士預測：根據過去的趨勢，它會不斷變肥。接着，就在感恩節前……
How not to be that turkeyTaleb has some tips:
怎麼才能不成爲那隻火雞呢？塔勒布提出了一些建議：
You can’t know which catastrophe will happen, but expect that any day some catastrophe could. In Tversky’s words: “Surprises are expected.” Better to worry than die blasé. Mobilise politically to forestall catastrophe.
你無法預知哪種災難會爆發，但可以預料到每一天都可能有某種災難爆發。用特沃斯基的話來說：“意外是預料之中的。”擔憂好於麻木地死去。要在政治上動員起來防患於未然。
Don’t presume that future catastrophes will repeat the forms of past catastrophes. The only catastrophes we seem able to imagine are ones that have happened before. After September 11, the US re-engineered itself to prevent another September 11. Now the cliché is that we’re back in the 1930s. Even Donald Trump, complaining about US intelligence agencies, asked, “Are we living in Nazi Germany?” However, we need to expand our imaginations. The next catastrophe may take an uNPRecedented form.
不要假定未來的災難會重複過去的災難形式。我們能想象到的唯一災難似乎是之前發生過的災難。9?11事件後，美國重新設計了自己，以防止另一起9?11事件。現在的老生常談是，我們回到了1930年代。就連抱怨美國情報機構的唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)都在發問：“我們住在納粹德國嗎？”然而，我們需要豐富我們的想象力。下一次災難可能以前所未有的形式出現。
Don’t follow the noise. Terrorist attacks and Trump’s tweets are spectacular. But some catastrophes unfold silently: climate change, or people dying after they lose their jobs or their health insurance. (The financial crisis was associated with about 260,000 extra deaths from cancer in developed countries alone, estimated a study in The Lancet.)
不要跟隨噪音。恐怖襲擊和特朗普的推文引人注目。但有些災難是悄悄演化的：氣候變化，或者人們在失業或喪失醫保之後死去。（《柳葉刀》(Lancet)雜誌的一項研究估計，僅僅在發達國家，金融危機便與約26萬的癌症死亡人數增加有關。）
Ignore banalities. Most westerners instinctively tune out serious news because they have learnt that it rarely affects their lives. In the US in particular, so-called “TV news” is, in fact, entertainment. It fixates on “stories” such as Trump’s spat with the actor Meryl Streep. But these distractions have become dangerous. We now need to stretch and bore ourselves with important stuff.
忽略無意義的東西。大多數西方人本能地不理會嚴肅新聞，因爲他們習慣認爲，這類新聞很少影響到他們的生活。特別在美國，所謂“電視新聞”實際上是娛樂節目。電視新聞主要關注“故事”，比如特朗普與演員梅里爾?斯特里普(Meryl Streep)的口水戰。但這些消遣變得危險。我們現在需要擴展眼界，看一些重要的東西。
Strengthen democratic institutions. The only western state designed specifically to ward off catastrophe is the Federal Republic of Germany. Unelected German judges are charged with defending the constitution against the people, if necessary. By contrast, France now exists under an endless state of emergency. If Marine Le Pen becomes president in May, she’ll have a fairly free hand.
加強民主體制。唯一專爲抵禦災難而設計的西方國家是德意志聯邦共和國。非選舉產生的德國法官肩負着必要時捍衛憲法不受民粹破壞的責任。相比之下，法國現在處於沒完沒了的緊急狀態中。如果馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)在5月當選總統，她將擁有相當大的自行決定權。
Strengthen the boring, neglected bits of the state that can either prevent or cause catastrophe. Examples are the collapsing dam in Mosul, Iraq, or the US’s ropy nuclear command centres. Eric Schlosser, author of Command and Control, reports that in 2013 the general overseeing the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles “was removed from duty after going on a drunken bender” in Russia, where his exploits included “asking repeatedly if he could sing with a Beatles cover band at a Mexican restaurant in Moscow, and insulting his military hosts”. A year later, nearly 100 Minuteman launch officers were caught cheating on their proficiency exams. Then a launch officer was jailed for 25 years for running a violent street gang. These people have the keys to launch nukes. A check-up may be in order.
加強政府中可能防止或導致災難的平淡無奇、被忽視的部分。例子有位於伊拉克摩蘇爾(Mosul)的即將坍塌的水壩，或美國的質量堪憂的核指揮中心。《命令與控制》(Command and Control)的作者埃裏克?施洛瑟(Eric Schlosser)指出，2013年，管理“民兵3”(Minuteman III)洲際彈道導彈的那名將軍因爲在俄羅斯“當衆醉酒”而被免職，他的“壯舉”包括“在莫斯科一家墨西哥風味餐館反覆詢問他是否可以跟一隻甲殼蟲翻唱樂隊合唱，並侮辱軍方接待人員”。一年後，近100名“民兵”導彈發射軍官在能力考試中舞弊。接着，一名發射軍官因爲組織一個暴力街頭團伙而被判入獄25年。這些人都掌握着發射核武器的鑰匙。或許應該進行一項大檢查。
Listen to older people who have experienced catastrophes. Taleb notes that elephant tribes often rely on elderly females to assess threats.
聽聽經歷過災難的老人的意見。塔勒布指出，象羣經常依靠老年母象來評估威脅。
Be conservative. Many Americans hope Trump will “shake things up”. As Noam Chomsky says, the risk is that he will. Often it’s smarter to maintain a flawed status quo. In Taleb’s words: “Don’t mess with complex systems, because we don’t understand them.”
保持謹慎。許多美國人希望，特朗普將“改變現狀”。正如諾姆?喬姆斯基(Noam Chomsky)所說，風險就在於他會這麼做。很多時候，更明智的做法是維持有缺陷的現狀。用塔勒布的話說：“不要亂碰複雜的系統，因爲我們不懂。”
Stock markets hit all-time highs after Trump’s election. What could possibly go wrong?
特朗普當選之後，股票市場創下歷史新高。可能是哪裏出錯了呢？
