特朗普的貿易戰豪賭:等待北京先讓步

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on almost every Chinese product that comes into the United States intensified the possibility of a damaging trade war, sending stock markets tumbling on Tuesday and drawing a rebuke from retailers, tech companies and manufacturers.
華盛頓——特朗普總統威脅要對幾乎所有進入美國的中國商品加徵關稅，加劇了一場破壞性貿易戰的可能性，導致股市週二暴跌，引發來自零售商、科技企業及製造商的指責。

The Trump administration remained unmoved by those concerns, with a top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, insisting that China has more to lose from a trade fight than the United States. He also declared that Mr. Trump would not allow Beijing to simply buy its way out of an economic dispute by promising to import more American goods.
對於這些擔憂，特朗普政府仍然不爲所動，高級貿易顧問彼得·納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)堅稱中國在貿易對抗中損失會比美國大。他還稱，特朗普不會允許北京通過承諾進口更多美國商品，輕鬆擺脫經濟爭端。

“President Trump has given China every chance to change its aggressive behavior,” Mr. Navarro said in a call with reporters on Tuesday. “China does have much more to lose than we do.”
“特朗普總統已經給了中國一切機會，讓其改變自己的攻擊性做法，”納瓦羅週二與記者通話時說。“中國的損失確實比我們大。”

In threatening tariffs on as much as $450 billion worth of Chinese goods, the administration is betting that Beijing will blink first. It’s a risky gamble by a White House that appears ready to forgo diplomatic negotiations in favor of punishing tariffs that could pinch consumers and companies on both sides of the Pacific.
在對價值高達4500億美元的中國商品加徵關稅的威脅中，這屆政府賭的是北京會先作出讓步。這是一場豪賭，白宮看起來似乎準備放棄外交談判，轉而採取懲罰性關稅，這可能會對太平洋兩岸的消費者和企業造成衝擊。

The approach fulfills a frequent campaign promise by Mr. Trump. But it has spooked companies, investors and markets, which are increasingly worried that the United States has no other strategy to resolve a stalemate with China over its trade practices. Several rounds of trade talks with top Chinese officials in Washington and Beijing produced little agreement, and no additional official negotiations are scheduled, administration officials said.
這一舉措實現了特朗普一個常掛在嘴邊的競選承諾，但也嚇到了企業、投資者和市場，他們愈發擔憂美國沒有其他辦法解決與中國就其貿易做法形成的僵局。與中國高層官員在華盛頓和北京的幾輪談判沒有達成什麼協議，美國政府官員表示，兩國也沒有另外再安排官員進行談判。

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump suggested he was ready for a fight, saying China would no longer take advantage of the United States.
週二，特朗普暗示他準備好了要打貿易戰，他說中國不會再佔美國的便宜了。

“China has been taking out $500 billion a year out of our country and rebuilding China,” the president said during a speech in Washington before the National Federation of Independent Business. “ They’ve taken so much. It’s time folks, it’s time. So we’re going to get smart, and we’re going to do it right.”
“中國每年從我們國家拿走5000億美元，去重建中國，”總統在華盛頓向美國獨立企業聯盟(National Federation of Independent Business)發表講話時說。“他們拿走了那麼多，是時候了，夥計們，是時候了。所以我們要變聰明起來，而且我們會把這件事做好。”

Markets sank on Tuesday in response to Mr. Trump’s announcement late Monday that his administration was preparing to impose even more tariffs than he originally threatened if China continued with its plan to retaliate against the United States.
特朗普在週一晚間宣佈，如果中國繼續實施報復美國的計劃，他的政府準備徵收比之前的威脅要多的關稅，全球市場週二應聲下跌。

Mr. Trump is now threatening to tax nearly the total value of goods that China sent to the United States last year, which was $505.6 billion.
特朗普現在威脅對中國去年向美國全部出口商品的總價值進行徵稅，該數字爲5056億美元。

The benchmark Dow Jones index, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite all fell on Tuesday, following stock markets in Frankfurt, London, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo and mainland China. Investors moved money into assets that are considered safe havens, like 10-year United States Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen.
作爲基準的道瓊斯指數、標準普爾500指數及以科技股爲主的納斯達克指數週二下跌，緊隨法蘭克福、倫敦、巴黎、香港及中國大陸的股市之後。投資者將資金轉移至被視爲安全的資產，例如10年期美國國債和日元。

Shares of Boeing and Caterpillar, which are among America’s leading exporters to China, fell sharply on Tuesday, along with soybean futures. China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, a key livestock feed, and Beijing has targeted American soybeans for retaliation with its own tariffs.
波音(Boeing)和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)是美國主要的對華出口企業，週二，兩家公司的股價連同大豆期貨均大幅下跌。大豆是一種重要的飼料，中國是世界上最大的大豆進口國，北京已將美國大豆作爲目標，徵收報復性關稅。

Soybean prices dropped more than 7 percent at times during the morning before stabilizing in afternoon trading. Prices are at their lowest level in more than two years, creating a politically delicate issue for Mr. Trump, who has strong support from rural voters in farm states but whose trade policies have angered farmers and lawmakers who represent them.
週二上午，大豆價格跌幅超過7%，在下午的交易中趨於回穩。大豆價格目前爲兩年多以來的最低點，這給特朗普帶來了一個在政治上敏感的問題，因爲他在農業州的農村選民當中獲得了強大的支持，但他的貿易政策已經惹怒了農民和代表他們的立法者。

Senator Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, said in a statement, “These aggressive trade actions will continue to have damaging consequences, including an impact on our commodity prices and farm futures, and increasing anxiety among the agricultural and business communities in Iowa.”
艾奧瓦州共和黨參議員約尼·厄恩斯特(Joni Ernst)在一則聲明中表示，“這些激進的貿易行爲將繼續造成具有破壞性的後果，包括對我們的大宗商品價格及農產品期貨的衝擊，以及艾奧瓦州農業及商業社區的焦慮在不斷增加。”

But Mr. Navarro, who is among Mr. Trump’s most strident anti-China advisers, dismissed those concerns, saying the United States had no choice. He said that the White House had given China numerous opportunities to negotiate and alter policies that have cost Americans millions of jobs, and that the Trump administration was now prepared to impose tariffs on $450 billion of Chinese goods in order to force Beijing to bend.
但特朗普最強硬的反華顧問之一納瓦羅駁斥了這些顧慮，稱美國別無選擇。他表示，白宮給了中國許多談判和改變政策的機會，那些政策已經讓美國人失去了數百萬個工作崗位，特朗普政府現在準備對4500億美元的中國商品徵收關稅，以迫使北京屈服。

“I think that the other side may have underestimated the strong resolve of President Donald J. Trump,” Mr. Navarro said. “If they thought that they could buy us off cheap with a few extra products and allow them to continue to steal our intellectual property and crown jewels, that was a miscalculation. We hope going forward there are no more miscalculations.”
“我認爲對方可能低估了唐納德·J·特朗普總統的堅定決心，”納瓦羅說。“如果他們認爲可以用一些額外的產品廉價收買我們，允許他們繼續竊取我們的知識產權和皇冠上的珠寶，那他們是做出了誤判。我們希望將來不再出現誤判。”

Mr. Navarro said a trade clash would hurt China much more than the United States, given that the value of China’s exports to the United States was nearly four times the value of what the United States exports to China.
納瓦羅表示，由於中國對美出口價值幾乎是美國對華出口價值的四倍，所以，貿易衝突對中國的傷害要遠遠大於對美國的傷害。

For weeks, the United States and China had appeared close to a deal that would have forestalled tariffs. Top advisers like Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, had advocated a deal that could avoid the devastating effects of a trade war, and spent hours in negotiations with Chinese officials.
數週以來，美中似乎已接近達成一項避免關稅的協議。美國財政部長史蒂文·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)和商務部長威爾伯·羅斯(Wilbur Ross)等高級顧問曾主張達成一項能避免貿易戰破壞性影響的協議，他們與中國官員進行了數小時的談判。

But after the Chinese refused to commit to a target for reducing their trade surplus with the United States or limit industrial subsidies, Mr. Trump rejected those proposals. And his resolve only hardened after lawmakers, including Democrats, criticized him as being weak on China when he agreed to help ease penalties on ZTE, a Chinese telecommunications company accused of violating American sanctions.
但在中國拒絕承諾減少對美貿易順差或限制工業補貼後，特朗普拒絕了這些提議。在他同意幫助減輕對中興通訊的處罰後，包括民主黨在內的議員批評他在中國問題上太軟弱，所以他更堅定了決心。

That decision has triggered a huge fight between the White House and Congress. On Monday, the Senate passed legislation that would reinstate penalties on ZTE and rescind a Commerce Department deal that allowed the company to stay in business in exchange for paying a large fine and agreeing to a series of management and compliance changes. The White House has vowed to remove that provision before the bill becomes final, and Mr. Trump is expected to meet with lawmakers on Wednesday to discuss the fate of ZTE.
減輕處罰中興的決定引發了白宮和國會之間的劇烈鬥爭。週一，參議院通過一項法案，將恢復對中興通訊的處罰，撤銷商務部的一項交易——該交易允許中興通訊繼續經營，中興則需要支付鉅額罰款，並同意進行一系列管理和合規改革。白宮誓言要在該法案最終確定前取消該條款，預計特朗普將於週三與議員們會面，討論中興通訊的命運。

The president’s approach has irritated some of Mr. Trump’s own advisers, including Mr. Mnuchin, who has been frustrated by the process of the China talks, according to an official familiar with his thinking. Mr. Mnuchin has tried to explain in recent meetings how China is likely to respond to America’s threats and the impact that retaliation could have on financial markets and the economy.
據一位知情官員稱，特朗普的做法激怒了他自己的一些顧問，包括馬努欽，他對與中國談判的進程感到沮喪。馬努欽在最近的一些會議上試圖闡明，中國可能會對美國的威脅作何反應，以及中國的報復可能會對金融市場和經濟產生什麼影響。

He has also been trying to persuade Mr. Trump not to proceed with harsh restrictions on Chinese investment that would limit China’s ability to do business in the United States. The Treasury Department is expected to release a proposal this month. Mr. Mnuchin, who is leading the effort, has been trying to convincer Mr. Trump that the restrictions are unnecessary, given pending legislation that would expand national security reviews performed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
他還一直試圖說服特朗普不要繼續對中國投資實施嚴厲限制，這些限制會影響中國在美國做生意的能力。預計財政部本月將公佈一項提案。主導這項努力的馬努欽一直在試圖讓特朗普明白，沒有必要實施這些限制，因爲即將進行的立法將擴大外國在美投資委員會(Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States)的國家安全審查權限。

In late May, Mr. Mnuchin helped orchestrate a meeting between the president, top White House advisers and Republican lawmakers, where the Treasury secretary asked lawmakers to help make the case that legislation would be a more targeted way to police Chinese investment, three people with knowledge of the meeting said. But Mr. Navarro and Robert E. Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, who were also in the meeting, objected to that approach. The president ultimately overruled Mr. Mnuchin, saying that he supported the congressional legislation but that it alone wasn’t enough.
據三位知情人士稱，5月底，馬努欽協助組織了一場由特朗普、白宮高級顧問和共和黨議員參與的會議。在會上，財政部長請議員們幫助論述該議案會是監管中國投資的更具針對性的方式。但納瓦羅和美國貿易代表羅伯特·E·萊特希澤(Robert E. Lighthizer)也參加了那次會議，他們反對那種做法。特朗普最終否定了馬努欽的主張，稱他支持國會的這項立法，但僅此還不夠。

The decision to proceed with tariffs is a victory for hard-liners in the administration, like Mr. Navarro and Mr. Lighthizer. They had argued that the United States should not back down from trying to force China to make more fundamental changes to its economy, even if such measures would cause short-term pain for American businesses and consumers.
對納瓦羅和萊特希澤等政府中的強硬派來說，繼續徵收關稅的決定是一個勝利。他們認爲，美國不應該放棄嘗試逼迫中國對其經濟進行更徹底的改革，即使這些措施會在短期內給美國企業和消費者帶來痛苦。

On Tuesday, Mr. Navarro minimized the divisions between administration officials, saying the United States’ negotiating process had not wavered and was “linear.” He said the idea of dropping the trade case in exchange for purchases — something the Chinese had offered the Americans in negotiations — had always been a “nonstarter.”
週二，納瓦羅將政府官員之間的分歧降到最小，稱美國的談判進程沒有動搖，是“線性”的。他說，撤銷貿易訴訟以換取採購的想法——這是中國在談判中向美國提出的——向來“行不通”。

In his remarks Tuesday morning, Mr. Navarro took aim at China’s internal plan to develop cutting-edge industries like robotics, new-energy vehicles, advanced rail and shipping, and aerospace. He said the country could not be allowed to dominate technologies that would be an important source of jobs and growth for the United States in decades to come.
在週二上午的講話中，納瓦羅把目標指向了中國發展機器人、新能源汽車、先進的鐵路和航運以及航空航天等尖端行業的內部計劃。他說，不能讓中國主導這些技術，它們將是美國未來幾十年重要的就業和增長來源。

China has engaged in unfair practices, including cybertheft and “information harvesting,” to obtain technological secrets from the United States that would allow China to pull ahead in these industries, Mr. Navarro said.
納瓦羅說，爲了從美國獲取能夠讓自己在這些行業領先的技術機密，中國採取了不公平的做法，包括網絡盜竊和“信息收集”。

“It is important to note here that the actions President Trump has taken are purely defensive in nature,” he said.
“務必要注意的是，特朗普總統採取的行動從本質上來說純粹是防禦性的，”他說。

There is broad agreement that China has engaged in unfair trade practices that have hurt American companies. But Mr. Trump’s resort to tariffs as his primary negotiating tool has prompted swift condemnation from retail, technology and manufacturing companies, who said the approach could hurt American consumers and companies more than the White House realized.
在中國採取了不公平的貿易做法，傷害了美國公司這一點上，各方達成了廣泛的共識。但特朗普訴諸關稅，將其作爲主要談判工具的做法立刻遭到了零售、科技和製造業企業的譴責。它們說，這種做法給美國消費者和企業造成的傷害，可能會超出白宮的想象。

Jose Castaneda, spokesman for the Information Technology Industry Council, called the escalation of trade tensions with China “irresponsible and counterproductive.”
信息技術產業協會(Information Technology Industry Council)的發言人喬斯·卡斯塔涅達(Jose Castaneda)說，與中國貿易緊張關係升級是“不負責任和適得其反的”。

“We appreciate President Trump’s efforts to protect the United States’ ‘crown jewels,’ but tariffs are simply the wrong way to do it,” he said. “The White House needs to work with our allies to create lasting change with China. Too many jobs and livelihoods are at stake to get this wrong.”
“我們感謝特朗普總統爲保護美國‘王冠上的寶石’所做的努力，但徵收關稅是完全錯誤的做法，”他說。“白宮需和我們的盟友合作，同中國一起創造持久的變化。一旦出錯，會有太多的工作崗位和生計面臨危險。”

Matt Priest, the president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, said it was difficult to see how tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods wouldn’t “negatively impact all Americans of every walk of life.”
美國鞋類分銷商和零售商協會(Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America)會長馬特·普里斯特(Matt Priest)說，很難認爲對另外2000億美元的中國商品徵收關稅不會“對各行各業的美國民衆產生不利影響”。

“The president claimed that trade wars are easy to win, but what our industry has always known is coming true: Trade wars are costly, unnecessary and do harm to the American economy,” he said.
“總統聲稱貿易戰容易打贏，但我們這個行業向來都瞭解的一點正在成爲現實：貿易戰代價高昂，沒有必要，並且會傷害美國經濟，”他說。