FT社評 希臘和歐洲必須修復信任

For a cash-strapped government, pleasing both one’s creditors and one’s voters is always tricky. The letter sent this week from Greece’s Syriza government to the eurogroup of finance ministers was a list of pragmatic concessions wrapped in the language of ideological defiance.

對一個資金緊張的政府來說，同時取悅債權人和選民始終是件棘手的事情。希臘激進左翼聯盟(Syriza)政府在上週致歐元集團（歐元集團由歐元區財政部長組成，截至2015年1月，共有19個成員國——編者注）的信件中，便把一些務實的妥協提議裹挾在意識形態上的挑釁語言當中。

The proposals are intended to win Greece an extension of the current bailout programme for four months, whereupon a comprehensive revision of the terms and conditions of the rescue can take place.

這些提議旨在爲希臘贏得一個讓步：即把目前的紓困計劃延長4個月，從而可以全面修改紓困的條款和條件。

Overall, its tone seems reasonable and represents a welcome retreat from unrealistic promises Syriza has made to its voters. Yet the cool response to the letter from the other two creditor institutions in what Greece no longer wants to call the “troika” — the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank — highlights how much trust has been damaged in the course of fractious negotiations.

整體而言，該信件的語氣似乎是理性的，代表着希臘激進左翼聯盟放棄了向其選民做出的不切實際的承諾，這值得歡迎。然而，其兩大債權人機構——國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和歐洲央行(ECB)的冷淡迴應突顯出，在極不順利的談判過程中，信任被破壞得多麼厲害。希臘現在已不願意再把IMF、歐洲央行和歐盟(European Union)稱爲“三駕馬車”。

Having sensibly left most of the business of negotiating the programme to the eurogroup, the ECB nonetheless felt the need to raise the alarm about the weakness ofGreece’s promises. In particular it issued a cryptic warning about the need to “stabilise the payment culture”, assumed to be concern about plans for a freeze on banks foreclosing on mortgages. The IMF said it was worried about the failure to make firm commitments in a number of areas, including reforms to Greece’s chaotic VAT regime and sclerotic labour market.

歐洲央行雖然明智地將紓困計劃的大部分談判交給了歐元集團，但仍感到有必要對希臘的承諾不力提出警告。尤其是它大有深意地警告有必要“穩固償債文化”，這被認爲是對凍結銀行抵押貸款止贖權的計劃感到擔憂。IMF表示，它對希臘未能在許多領域做出堅定承諾感到擔憂，包括改革其混亂的增值稅體系以及僵化的勞動力市場。

These misgivings largely reflect the dysfunctional nature of the negotiations as well as policy. Loose talk from the Greek side and erratic aggression from parts of the eurogroup have diminished faith in any promise not written out in minute detail, copied in triplicate and signed in blood.

這些擔憂很大程度上反映出紓困談判和政策的失靈。希臘的信口開河以及歐元集團一些人飄忽不定的咄咄逼人態度，使得人們對凡是沒有事無鉅細、一式三份和以血立誓寫下的承諾，都不再信任。

Some of this debate is better postponed until the four-month extension is over and a more comprehensive long-term deal is negotiated. The focus in the interim should be on ensuring that Athens does not reverse decisions already implemented, such as reducing the minimum wage, nor rule out areas for reform in the future.

一些辯論最好延遲至4個月延長期結束、以及更爲全面的長期協議達成之後。這期間的重點應該放在確保希臘不會推翻已經實施的決定，比如降低最低工資標準，同時確保其不排除未來的改革領域。

Privatisation is a case in point. The letter accepts that state asset sales currently in progress will go ahead. This presumably includes the rest of the Port of Piraeus, the container terminal successfully run by Chinese company Cosco since its sale in 2008. But Panagiotis Lafazanis, energy minister, has opposed selling off the state electricity company and power grid distributor.

私有化就是一個焦點。希臘激進左翼聯盟在信中表示，將會繼續推進當前開展的國有資產出售事宜。這些資產可能包括比雷埃夫斯港的剩餘資產——這個集裝箱碼頭自2008年向中國中遠(Cosco)出售特許經營權以來被運營得非常成功。但希臘能源部長帕納約蒂斯•拉法贊尼斯(Panagiotis Lafazanis)反對出售該國國有電力公司和電網。

It would be a serious mistake at this stage to allow the assumption to take hold that there will be no more privatisations throughout the life of the programme. Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister, has a point that selling off state assets in haste during an economic downturn is not a good way of securing a good price and promoting future efficiency. But Cosco’s success shows that privatisations can bring in better management and fresh investment. The Syriza government seems to think that, through joint ventures and other actions short of privatisation, it can have the same investment and efficiency. It is very likely mistaken.

在這個階段讓人們以爲在紓困計劃期間不會有更多的私有化計劃，是一個嚴重的錯誤。希臘財長亞尼斯•瓦魯法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)認爲，在經濟低迷期間倉促出售國有資產很難賣出理想價格和提升未來的效率。但中遠的成功表明，私有化可以提高管理水平並帶來新的投資。希臘激進左翼聯盟政府似乎認爲，通過創立合資企業和其他非私有化舉措，希臘可以獲得同樣的投資和效率。這種觀點極有可能是錯誤的。

The troika are right to be suspicious of Syriza’s offer and, as Friday’s vote in the Bundestag underlined, have their own domestic constituencies to placate. But demanding a degree of detail now that can wait until four months’ time risks adding to their own reputation for caprice. The agreement must consolidate the reform done so far and provide a platform for more to be done in future. There is a deep and damaging lack of trust between Greece and the troika. A simple and robust interim deal now may help to rebuild it.

“三駕馬車”對希臘激進左翼聯盟政府的提議感到懷疑是正確的，正如上週五德國聯邦議院(Bundestag)的投票突顯的那樣，他們也需要安撫自己的選民。但如果現在就要求敲定本來可以等待4個月的某種細節，有可能讓他們自己落下反覆無常的名聲。協議必須整合迄今已經完成的改革，併爲未來更多的改革提供平臺。希臘和“三駕馬車”之間嚴重缺乏信任，這是非常有害的。一份簡單而紮實的過渡協議可能有助於修復信任。