經合組織下調全球增長預期 OECD cuts global growth forecasts as shifts in China hit trade

A dramatic slowdown in world trade, prompted by shifts in China and other emerging markets, risks weighing down the global recovery, the OECD has said.

經合組織(OECD)表示，中國和其他新興市場所發生的轉變導致世界貿易大幅放緩，有可能拖累全球經濟復甦。

The Paris-based group of mainly developed economies cut its growth forecasts, predicting the world economy will expand by 2.9 per cent this year and by 3.3 per cent in 2016. This compares with earlier projections of 3 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively.

總部位於巴黎、以發達經濟體爲主的該集團下調了經濟增長預測，預計世界經濟將在今年擴張2.9%，2016年擴大3.3%。相比之下，此前的預測分別是3%和3.6%。

The downward revisions, in the OECD’s twice-yearly Economic Outlook, come only weeks after the International Monetary Fund said the world economy would grow at the slowest pace since the crisis.

OECD在其每年兩期的《經濟展望》(Economic Outlook)中做出上述下調。就在幾周前，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)表示，世界經濟將以自危機以來最慢的速度增長。

Fears over the state of the Chinese economy have jolted markets since the summer, prompting the Bank of England to delay a much-anticipated rise in interest rates. The US Federal Reserve has also held off increasing borrowing costs for the first time since the crisis but is expected to do so next month.

自夏季以來，對中國經濟狀況的擔憂影響了市場走勢，促使英國央行(Bank of England)推遲採取各方預期已久的加息。美聯儲(Federal Reserve)也推遲了危機爆發以來的首次加息，但預計將在下月採取加息行動。

“Global growth prospects have clouded this year,” the OECD said.

“全球經濟增長前景今年被陰雲籠罩，”經合組織表示。

It added that many countries might need to reassess monetary and fiscal policy because of increasing signs that underlying growth would not be as strong as expected. In particular, the OECD emphasised the “dramatic slowdown in global trade growth”, which is expected to be only 2 per cent this year, compared with 3.4 per cent in 2014 and far more in the early years of the decade.

該集團補充稱，許多國家可能需要重新評估貨幣和財政政策，因爲有越來越多的跡象表明，潛在的增長不會像預期的那麼強勁。尤其是，經合組織強調了“全球貿易增長的顯著放緩，”預計今年全球貿易增幅只有2%，而2014年達到3.4%，本十年最初幾年的增幅還要高得多。

Trade has generally increased at such meagre rates only when growth has also disappointed.

通常而言，只有在經濟增長也令人失望的情況下，貿易增長率纔會這麼低。

“World trade has been a bellwether for global output,” said Catherine Mann, OECD chief economist. “The growth rates of global trade observed so far in 2015 have, in the past, been associated with global recession.”

“世界貿易一直是全球產出的風向標，”經合組織首席經濟學家凱瑟琳曼(Catherine Mann)表示。“2015年迄今觀察到的全球貿易增速放在以往和全球經濟衰退有關聯。”

The lacklustre prospects for trade and output largely reflect continuing weaknesses in emerging markets, the OECD said. In particular, Beijing’s transition from a growth model based on investment spending towards one focused on consumption has led to a sharp fall in commodity prices and may be reducing China’s role in world trade.

經合組織表示，貿易和產出的低迷前景在很大程度上反映了新興市場依然疲弱。特別是，中國正致力於轉變增長模式，從基於投資支出的增長模式轉向以消費爲重點，這導致大宗商品價格大幅下滑，並可能減少中國在世界貿易中的作用。

The OECD noted that the decline in imports by volume to China accounted for around a third of the slowdown in non-OECD import growth between 2014 and 2015, damping foreign demand for other Asian economies.

經合組織指出，2014年至2015年非經合組織國家進口增長放緩約有三分之一是中國進口量下降引起的，抑制了海外對其它亞洲經濟體的需求。

But the OECD still expects China to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2015, 0.1 percentage point faster than predicted two months ago. Growth will then slow to 6.5 per cent in 2016, unchanged from its earlier prediction.

但OECD仍預計中國經濟將在2015年增長6.8%，比兩個月前的預測高0.1個百分點。隨後中國經濟增長將在2016年放緩至6.5%，與此前的預測相同。

The Economic Outlook expects the euro area to grow by 1.5 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2016, marginally lower than expected in September. Germany’s forecasts have been trimmed lower, while Italy is now expected to grow slightly faster. The US economy is forecast to expand by 2.5 per cent in 2016, slightly lower than the 2.6 per cent growth forecast in September.

《經濟展望》預計歐元區今年將增長1.5%，2016年增長1.8%，略低於9月份的預測。德國的預測被微幅下調，而意大利的預測被小幅上調。美國經濟預計將在2016年擴張2.5%，略低於9月預測的增長2.6%。

The OECD warns that the normalisation of monetary policy should proceed “cautiously”.

經合組織警告稱，貨幣政策正常化應當“謹慎”推進。