誰在糾結人民幣兌美元匯率

I look back on my time as a wide-eyed Markets reporter at the start of my FT career as particularly instructive. I learnt that although I knew next to nothing about global financial markets, no one else seemed to know much either.

回想當初進入英國《金融時報》工作時，我是一名毫無經驗的市場記者，現在看來，那段經歷特別具有啓發意義。我瞭解到，我對全球金融市場幾乎一竅不通，但其他人似乎也知道得並不太多。

My early-morning calls to analysts and fund managers often went along the lines of:

大清早，我給分析師和基金經理打電話時，對話內容經常是這樣的：

Me: “Why is the Nikkei up today?” Mr Market: “Because Wall Street was up last night.” Me: “So all you highly paid financial whizz kids are simply going to copy what has already happened elsewhere?” Mr Market: “Yeah, sounds about right.”

我問：“今天日經指數(Nikkei)爲何上漲？”市場先生答：“因爲華爾街昨晚上漲了。”我問：“那麼說，你們這些拿高薪的金融天才們，僅僅是追隨其他市場的走勢嘛？”市場先生答：“是的，聽起來是那麼回事。”

I was reminded of such conversations last week, when the latest in a series of gut-wrenching market swings that have peppered the early days of 2016 sent global equities spiralling higher on the Monday.

2016年初，市場上發生了一連串讓人揪心的波動。上週，當最新一次波動在週一推高全球股市時，這讓我回想起了以前那種對話。

Many professed to be puzzled by the rally. In reality, the causality was clear, even if mystifyingly lacking in logic.

許多人承認，他們弄不明白股市爲何上漲。在現實中，因果關係是顯而易見的，儘管邏輯缺乏得令人困惑。

Early in the day, China had allowed the renminbi to jump 1.2 per cent against the dollar, the biggest one-day move since the People’s Bank of China started to liberalise the currency in 2005.

當天早上，中國將人民幣兌美元匯率中間價提高了1.2%，爲2005年中國央行(PBoC)開始放鬆匯率管制以來的最大單日升幅。

In the latest iteration of the market’s “X rises because Y did” game, this is seen as a sign that the Chinese economy is fine and does not need the stimulus of a weaker currency. Risk assets, such as global equities, are thus the in thing, for 24 hours at least.

在最新重複的“X因爲Y上漲而上漲”的市場遊戲中，這被視爲中國經濟運行良好、不需要貶值貨幣來刺激的一個跡象。因此，風險資產（例如全球股票）受到追捧——行情至少持續了24小時。

This particular game of knee-jerk has been popular since at least the start of 2015. Since then, the renminbi/dollar exchange rate and the MSCI World index of developed market equities has exhibited a correlation of 0.85.

至少自從2015年初以來，這種特殊的膝跳反射式遊戲一直很流行。那時以來，人民幣兌美元匯率和明晟(MSCI)發達市場股指之間展示出了0.85的關聯度。

The problem is that Monday’s unusually sharp rise in the renminbi does not, in fact, tell us anything about the health or otherwise of the Chinese economy. Nor should it have come as a surprise to anyone who was paying attention.

問題在於，上週一人民幣非同尋常的大漲，事實上無法讓我們判斷中國經濟健康與否。此舉對任何關注的人也不應出乎意料。

Since December, Chinese authorities have been telling us repeatedly that they are no longer focused on maintaining a tight peg to the dollar. Instead they are referencing a trade-weighted basket of 13 currencies.

自去年12月以來，中國當局一再告訴我們，他們不再着力於維持人民幣對美元的緊密掛鉤。相反，他們開始參考一個經貿易加權的13種貨幣籃子。

Most market participants appear to have chosen to ignore this and to remain fixated on the bilateral renminbi-dollar rate, even if the penny, or rather the fēn, finally dropped for some last week when Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank, painstakingly spelt it out.

大多數市場參與者似乎對此置之不理，繼續糾結於人民幣兌美元匯率，儘管上週當中國央行行長周小川煞費苦心地親自闡明政策時，一些人終於有所領悟。

What’s more, the Chinese appear to be doing exactly what they told us they would do.

此外，中國人正在做的事情，似乎正是他們告訴過我們的事情。

During the week ending February 12, when China’s markets were closed for the lunar new year holiday, the dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s broad strength, fell 1.1 per cent.

截止2月12日的那一週裏，中國市場因春節假期而休市，衡量美元相對於一籃子貨幣走勢的美元指數下跌了1.1%。

Given that, should anyone have been the least bit surprised when, on its return from the festive break, the renminbi rose sharply against the dollar, thereby helping maintain its broad level against the basket?

考慮到這一點，在過完春節假期回來之後，看到人民幣兌美元大幅升值、從而幫助維持人民幣對一籃子貨幣的匯率水平時，有誰應該感到驚訝嗎？

That such a formulaic, technical adjustment should drive global markets is a little odd, to say the least.

這種公式化的技術調整竟然會影響全球市場行情，起碼有點怪異。

The urge to derive global market sentiment from the daily change in the renminbi/dollar exchange rate is odd on another level, too.

讓人民幣兌美元匯率的每日變動影響全球市場情緒的衝動，從另一個層面上看也是怪異的。

Alessandro Theiss, an economist at Oxford Economics, a consultancy, says that while “modest renminbi depreciation has recently been associated with sizeable repercussions”, his simulations suggest such movements have only a “minor impact on global growth and inflation”.

諮詢機構牛津經濟(Oxford Economics)經濟學家亞歷山德羅泰斯(Alessandro Theiss)說，儘管“人民幣略微貶值近來被認爲產生了相當大的衝擊波”，但他的模擬結果似乎顯示，人民幣匯率變動僅僅“對全球增長和通脹造成了很小的影響”。

His models suggest that even a 10 per cent renminbi depreciation against the dollar would only reduce global economic growth by a tenth of a percentage point, a rounding error in the great scheme of things.

他的模型似乎顯示，即便人民幣兌美元貶值10%，對全球經濟增長率的拖累也將只有十分之一個百分點，在實際意義上只是一個舍入誤差。

The incentive for Beijing to kick-start a currency war by depreciating its currency is also weak. That same 10 per cent fall against the dollar would only boost Chinese gross domestic product by 0.3 of a percentage point, Mr Theiss calculates.

北京方面貶值貨幣、啓動貨幣戰的動機也很弱。據泰斯測算，人民幣兌美元貶值10%的話，僅僅將使中國國內生產總值(GDP)提高0.3個百分點。

As a result, “the link between a weaker renminbi and weaker equity markets is not obvious”, says Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroders, the fund house.

其結果是，基金公司施羅德(Schroders)的首席經濟學家基思韋德(Keith Wade)說，“人民幣走低和股市走弱之間的關聯並不明顯。”

This is even more so if we are not really seeing a weaker (or stronger) renminbi at all, just a softening (or firming) against the dollar because the greenback has strengthened (or weakened) against other currencies.

如果我們沒有真的看到人民幣走弱（或走強），而只是因爲美元對其他貨幣升值（或貶值）而對美元有所弱化（或強化），那麼這個結論就更有份量了。

It looks like the market participants may have to invent a fresh version of “X is up because Y is”, or better still, actually start thinking a little more for themselves.

看起來，市場參與者或許必須發明一個更新版本的“X因爲Y上漲而上漲”遊戲了，更理想的是，實際上開始多一點兒自己的思考。