金融政策領域 區塊鏈革命一旦發生
Few issues in financial policy are more controversial than the impact of blockchain, the distributed ledger technology that sits behind the digital currency bitcoin. Does it threaten not only the profits of financial intermediaries but also their business models?
在金融政策領域，沒有什麼問題比區塊鏈的影響更有爭議了。區塊鏈是數字貨幣比特幣背後的分佈式記賬技術。這種技術會不會威脅金融中介的利潤，甚至危及它們的商業模式？
Could it undermine the control that central bankers exert over global payments and securities processing? Or is it a tool to streamline cluttered processes, improve resilience and enhance transparency?
它會不會削弱央行對全球支付和證券處理的控制？抑或它是簡化繁雜過程、提高抗壓能力和增強透明度的工具？
The case for change is clear. Even if the dangerous experiment of negative interest rates proves to be shorter lived than many fear, banks’ need for more operating leverage will remain in a modest growth economy.
實施改革的理由很明顯。即使負利率的危險實驗被證明比許多人擔憂的要短命一些，在溫和增長的經濟中，銀行對更高營運槓桿的需求依然會存在。
The key to cutting costs? Harnessing technology to improve productivity.
那麼，削減成本的關鍵是什麼？答案是充分利用新技術以提高生產率。
Enter blockchain . It offers the promise of a unique shared database across multiple sites and geographies as a public ledger of all transactions.
這便是區塊鏈的用武之地。它有望在多個站點和地理區域提供獨特的共享數據庫，作爲所有交易的公共賬本。
Broad-based adoption could take as long as a decade, as issues such as scalability and standards have yet to be resolved.
由於可擴展性和相關標準等問題尚未解決，大範圍推廣可能仍是10年後的事情。
And while there is a great deal of hype surrounding the technology, there are also several misconceptions.
與此同時，儘管圍繞該技術有大量炒作，但仍存在幾個認識誤區。
For the more radical proponents of blockchain, a distributed ledger means a peer-to-peer system, eliminating the need for middlemen.
對比較激進的區塊鏈支持者來說，分佈式賬本意味着一種p2p系統，消除了對中間人的需求。
But neither banks nor policymakers take the idea of an “unpermissioned” network seriously, principally because of anti-money laundering and “know your customer” (KYC) rules. This of course raises the issue of who will be in charge.
不過，銀行和政策制定者都沒有認真考慮過建立“無許可”網絡的想法，主要是由於反洗錢和“瞭解你的客戶”(know your customer，KYC)的規則。這無疑會帶來由誰負責的問題。
Another claim often made is that blockchain can eliminate existing infrastructure. But its scalability has not yet been tested and firms cannot risk trillions of dollars of daily fund flows on an unproven system. Blockchain will need to be able to be plugged into existing technology to be usable and affordable. This is more evolution than revolution.
另一個時常出現的說法是區塊鏈會消滅現存的基礎設施。但它的可擴展性還沒有經過驗證，企業不能冒險用一個未經驗證的系統處理數萬億美元的日常資金流。區塊鏈將需要能夠與現有技術銜接，才能做到可用和成本可承受。這在更大程度上是進化，而不是革命。
What does this mean for policymakers? Christopher Giancarlo, a commissioner at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has argued that in order for blockchain technology to develop, regulators must take a “do no harm” approach. He is right.
對於政策制定者來說，這意味着什麼？美國商品期貨交易委員會(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)委員克里斯托弗•詹卡洛(Christopher Giancarlo)主張，要讓區塊鏈技術得到發展，監管者必須採取“不傷害”姿態。他說得對。
Regulators should be agnostic about new technology, but there are some practical steps they could take in order to encourage blockchain innovation.
監管機構應該對新技術抱中性態度，但他們可以採取一些實際步驟鼓勵區塊鏈創新。
A recent Morgan Stanley report outlined ten potential obstacles to making blockchain a reality in banking.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)近期一份報告列出了銀行業採用區塊鏈技術的十個潛在障礙。
Overcoming half of them would require collaboration with public authorities. The adoption of blockchain hinges on regulation, most of which is still to be written.
這些障礙中有半數需要政府當局合作才能克服。區塊鏈技術的普及有賴於法規，而大部分法規尚未出臺。
First, regulators need to work with innovators on areas such as digital identity, smart contracts, tokenisation, privacy and data ownership.
首先，監管者需要與數字化身份認證、智能合約、標記化、隱私和數據所有權等領域的創新者開展合作。
Second, legal issues need to be addressed. For instance, who is responsible in a decentralised system?
其次，需要應對相關法律問題。比如，在去中心化的系統中，該由誰負責？
Who has jurisdiction when a network is spread over a large number of regions and companies? How will existing regulations be adapted to new technologies and business models?
在網絡分佈於衆多地區和企業的情況下，誰有管轄權？現有法規該如何修改，以適應新的技術和商業模式？
More broadly, shared services are likely to be central to the next decade of banking. Regulation will play a critical role in supporting this shift.
更普遍地說，服務共享可能成爲今後10年銀行業的核心關鍵。監管將扮演支持這一轉型的關鍵角色。
A healthy financial system will require more mutualisation of costs, given that multiple rules are a disincentive to consolidation. These include areas such as KYC, which are particularly difficult to manage given differing legal interpretations.
考慮到多頭管理不利於整合，健康的金融系統將要求更多共擔成本。這其中就包括KYC等領域，在法律解釋各不相同的情況下，這些領域尤其難以管理。
Blockchain may bring about dramatic change. And if it does, there will be losers, as floor traders found out to their cost when securities exchanges went through a technological disruption of their own. This, however, did not spell the end of all intermediaries.
區塊鏈也許會帶來戲劇性的改革。一旦它做到這一點，將會出現輸家——就像證券交易所在經歷技術劇變時，場內交易員發現自己變得多餘那樣。
Rather, it reinvigorated the winners, who are able to manage volumes several orders of magnitude higher than before at a fraction of the cost, and with greater functionality for investors.
不過，這並不意味着所有中介的末日。相反，它將振作贏家，他們能管理比過去高几個數量級的成交量，而成本只有過去的一個零頭，還能爲投資者提供更多功能。
The blockchain revolution, if it happens, could prove to be just as important to customers.
區塊鏈革命一旦發生，可能被證明對客戶也同等重要。
