9月份中國人民幣貸款增長超預期

China’s local-currency loans and broader liquidity grew more than expected last month but at rates nowhere close to the acceleration seen earlier this year.

上月，中國本幣貸款和更廣義流動性的增長超過預期，但增速遠不及今年早些時候的水平。

New renminbi-denominated bank loans rose to Rmb1.22tn in September, up 16.2 per cent year on year after bouncing back from contraction to grow 17.1 per cent in August, according to new figures from the People’s Bank of China. That was also above a median estimate of Rmb1tn from economists.

中國央行最新數據顯示，9月份新增人民幣貸款升至1.22萬億元人民幣，同比上升16.2%。這一數字要高於1萬億元人民幣的經濟學家預測值中位數。中國新增人民幣貸款在8月份擺脫收縮趨勢發生反彈，同比上升了17.1%。

A broad measure of the country’s money supply, M2, rose 11.5 per cent year on year last month, just shy of a median forecast of 11.6 per cent growth and marginally closer to a target of 13 per cent annual growth.

上月，中國廣義貨幣(M2)同比增長11.5%，只比11.6%的預測值中位數略低一點，朝着13%的年增長目標又略微拉近了一些。

M1, a more narrow measurement of cash and shorter-term deposits, grew far more quickly at an annualised rate of 24.7 per cent year on year. Analysts said the discrepancies between M1 and M2 earlier in the year suggest companies still preferred to hold onto cash rather than invest.

狹義貨幣（M1，包括現金和較短期存款）的增長要快得多，同比增長了24.7%。分析師表示，今年早些時候M1與M2增速的背離表明，企業仍傾向於持有現金，而不是投資。

Still, Beijing’s favoured metric of total social financing, comprised of most major sources of financing, blew past a median forecast of Rmb1.39tn to reach Rmb1.72tn, up from Rmb1.47tn in August.

不過，北京方面最青睞的指標“社會融資規模”（由大多數主要融資構成）增長了1.72萬億元人民幣，高於1.39萬億元人民幣的預測值中位數，也高於8月份增長的1.47萬億元人民幣。

Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard noted outstanding government bonds, whose share of credit is omitted from total social financing, were still growing rapidly at a pace of 57.9 per cent in September, pushing an augmented measure of the financing gauge to 16.7 per cent year on year growth, down slightly from 16.8 per cent in August.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國經濟學家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出，9月份，政府債券（這部分信貸未計入社會融資規模）餘額仍在快速增長，增速達57.9%，導致一項擴充後的社會融資規模指標同比增長了16.7%，略低於8月份16.8%的同比增速。

He added that “in coming months the economy may continue to propped up by earlier policy easing. However, a slower expansion in credit is likely to prove a major headwind to growth next year”.

他接着指出，“未來幾個月裏，中國經濟或許仍會受到早先寬鬆政策的支撐。但明年，信貸擴張放緩很可能會對增長構成很大阻力”。