短線觀點 上調印花稅難撼香港樓市泡沫

Heard the one about the parking space sold for $620,000? In Hong Kong, property — even for cars — is an obsession that affects everyone from the richest tycoons to those struggling to get on the ladder in the world’s least affordable market.

聽說了一個車位賣62萬美元那件事嗎？在香港，房地產、甚至連車位都成爲了一種執念，影響着每一個人——從最富有的富豪，到那些竭力想在這個世界上房價最難以負擔的市場中成爲有房一族的人。

So a surprise increase in stamp duty was always going to cause waves, and developers’ shares duly tumbled on Monday.

因此，印花稅的突然上調總是會引發市場震盪，地產開發商的股價也在週一應聲下挫。

But the chances that the measures will truly burst one of the world’s most stubborn real estate bubbles are slim while US rates remain low and the renminbi is weakening.

不過，在美國利率保持在低位和人民幣走弱之際，這類措施真正刺破這個世界上最頑固的房地產泡沫的可能性很小。

There is no doubt that Hong Kong has a problem.

香港無疑面臨一個問題。

Prices are 19 times median incomes, according to one global survey that ranked Sydney second least affordable at 12 times.

根據一項全球調查，香港的房價是收入中值的19倍，房價第二難負擔的城市是悉尼，爲12倍。

Prices in Hong Kong bottomed in March, confounding predictions of an extended slide through the year.

香港的房價在今年3月就觸底反彈，讓那些預期下跌趨勢會貫穿今年全年的人目瞪口呆。

Since March they have risen 13 per cent.

自3月份以來，香港房價已攀升13%。

The government on Friday imposed 15 per cent stamp duty across the board except for resident first-time buyers — tougher than eight previous rounds of taxes and lending restrictions.

上週五，香港政府宣佈向首次購房香港居民以外的所有購房者徵收15%的印花稅，此舉比此前八輪稅收和貸款限購舉措還要嚴厲。

Non-residents have paid 15 per cent since 2012 but until now, the most residents faced was 8.5 per cent.

自2012年以來，非居民的購房印花稅一直是15%，但直到最近，多數居民購房的印花稅還只有8.5%。

The levies are likely to hit the value of lower priced homes more.

這次上調給較低價格住房的價值造成的衝擊很可能更大一些。

For example, the buyer of a HK$4m ($515,700) property now faces a tripling of duty if it is a second home.

比如，購買一套400萬港元（合51.57萬美元）房產的買家，如今要繳的稅額是以前的三倍（假如這是他購買的第二套住房的話）。

The measures were an immediate blow to the city’s biggest developers, with the likes of Cheung Kong, New World and Sun Hung Kai off about 9 per cent apiece.

此舉立刻對香港最大的地產開發商造成衝擊，長江(Cheung Kong)、新世界(New World)和新鴻基(Sun Hung Kai)等公司的股價下跌了9%左右。

Their average one-day fall following previous stamp duty changes was just 3.2 per cent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的數據顯示，此前幾次印花稅調整後，這些公司的股價的平均單日跌幅只有3.2%。

Analysts rushed to lower valuations: transaction volumes will certainly fall as they have before in the wake of stamp duty rises.

分析師急忙下調了相應的估值：成交量無疑會像過去那樣，在印花稅上調後下滑。

Prices may even slide — or at least, stop rising.

房價也許還會進一步下滑，或者至少是停止上漲。

But Hong Kong’s biggest house price problems are out of the city’s hands — namely ultra-low US interest rates and a depreciating renminbi, both of which make the city attractive and lift demand for property.

不過，香港房價的最大問題卻不由香港決定——這兩個最大的問題就是超低的美國利率和不斷貶值的人民幣，二者都增強了香港的吸引力，推升了對香港房地產的需求。

Until either of those changes comprehensively, liquidity will continue to be available for mainland buyers keen to hedge their renminbi holdings with dollar-pegged Hong Kong homes.

在這兩個問題中的一個得到徹底改變前，對那些急於用同美元掛鉤的香港住房來對衝其人民幣資產的中國內地買家來說，流動性將依然存在。